All eyes are on Tsai Ing-wen today as she takes office as Taiwan’s first female president, but Beijing in particular will be watching closely to see how Tsai transforms her party’s independence-leaning rhetoric and her contrasting promise to preserve the status quo into policy towards China.
Tsai’s actions must balance the goal of preserving stable cross-strait relations in the face of added pressure from Beijing with the interests of a Taiwanese public, who increasingly see themselves as separate from the mainland. At the same time, Tsai must figure out how to fix Taiwan’s floundering economy, as citizens grow wary of too much dependence on China.
Tsai’s landslide victory in January was not only noteworthy because of her gender. The election also marked the first time that the nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) lost its majority in the legislature since it retreated to Taiwan from mainland China in 1949.
Tsai, who is a member of the Democratic Progressive Party (DDP), earned 56 percent of the vote, nearly twice that of KMT candidate Eric Chu, and the DPP won 68 out of 113 seats in parliament, signaling that the Taiwanese people are ready for change.
Beijing, on the other hand, which benefited from improved relations with Taiwan under outgoing president Ma Ying-jeou’s leadership, including an unprecedented meeting between Ma and Chinese President Xi Jinping, is not so keen about the election results.
According to Bonnie Glaser from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Chinese have so far held an intransigent position, calling on Tsai to accept the same set of policies and arrangements that have existed over the past eight years under Ma.
“To some extent it is unreasonable when you have a democratic polity that elects its own leaders to expect that a new leader that comes in is simply going to inherit all the policies of the old administration,” said Glaser, “especially since this is a new party that is coming into power.”
But Tsai apparently doesn’t want to rock the boat. She promises to maintain the status quo with China, despite the fact that her party’s charter includes the goal of independence and many of her supporters are interested in moving in that direction.
Tsai has however gone against Ma’s precedent by refusing to affirm the 1992 consensus – a term that refers to the outcome of a meeting between representatives from Taiwan and mainland China where both sides agreed that there is only one sovereign state of China but agreed to disagree about which of the two governments is the legitimate ruler of that China.
“It should not be a surprise that the DPP would reject tying their hands to a vague agreement reached prior to broader democratic competition.” said Timothy Rich, assistant professor in political science at Western Kentucky University. “China may demand affirmation of the 1992 Consensus, but Tsai's reluctance to do so does not mean a deviation from the broader status quo in cross-strait relations.”
Taiwanese apparently support this position. According to a recent survey by Taiwan Indicators Survey Research, 55.1 percent of the Taiwanese public believes Tsai’s policy qualifies as maintaining the status quo in relations with the mainland.
Beijing on the other hand has made it clear that Tsai’s failure to affirm the consensus puts their relationship at risk.
“We have already seen China search for how to respond to a Tsai presidency,” said Rich. “During the election campaign, China maintained the traditional warnings against Taiwanese independence and the Xi-Ma meeting to many was a Hail Mary attempt to boost support for the Kuomintang's candidate Eric Chu.”
Since Tsai Ing-wen has been elected, China has resorted to various pressure tactics meant as warning signals to Taiwan.
Earlier this year, Beijing moved to steal one of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies when it established relations with Gambia, preventing the small African country from continuing to deal officially with Taiwan.
Last month, China made a point about sovereignty when it pressured Kenya to deport a group of Taiwanese nationals who had been accused of conducting illegal activities to mainland China rather than back to Taiwan.
Finally, just a few weeks ago, a Chinese official made a statement threatening to block Taiwan from participating as an observer in the World Health Organization (WHO) if Taiwan’s relationship with China continues to deteriorate.
“The challenge for the Tsai administration is to present a framework for engagement that is both publicly popular in Taiwan and that is palatable to China,” said Rich.
But Randall Schriver, an Asia expert at Armitage International, says Beijing must also make concessions.
“I don’t see that the onus is entirely on Dr. Tsai to meet Chinese demands. I think they should understand that it’s important to be on a more sustainable footing and that involves compromise on their side as well,” said Schriver.
There is no precedent to shed light on Taiwan's position, but somehow, the anomaly of Taiwan has lasted almost seven decades. The continuation of its unique relationship with the rest of the world depends on Tsai’s ability to balance competing interests and China’s willingness to adapt to new leadership in Taiwan.
Erica Evans is a Journalism Associate with The Cipher Brief.
