I remember remarking to Cuban American friends in Miami some 20 years ago and in the wake of the passage of the Helms-Burton Act (which formalized the U.S. trade embargo on Cuba) that it was my humble opinion that if we just got rid of the embargo against Cuba and opened up a McDonald’s and a Hard Rock Cafe, the companies and people and ideas would flood in to Cuba, and then-President Fidel Castro wouldn’t last three months. My idea was not warmly received by my Cuban-American interlocutors, who felt that any “caving in” (their words) to the Castro regime was a big victory for him and a resounding defeat for the United States. I countered, “But, if you agree that the overarching goal of the embargo is to get Castro out of power, don’t you admit that what we have been doing for the last 30 plus years has been completely ineffective and that maybe it’s time to try something new?” My interlocutors were adamant in their point of view that we shouldn’t cave in to Castro. I lost this argument. But no one lives forever, and now, Castro is gone.
Cuba has existed since 1959 in what seems like a high school social studies project. The island nation is like a petri dish of Cuba’s own brand of communism. Tourists flock there, mostly from Europe, to see a sort of communist theme park they think is quaint and old-fashioned. In Cuba, new ideas and political opposition are not tolerated; any dissent is dealt with immediately and harshly. Most of the brave and industrious types who really wanted change have long since left the island (sometimes, by bravely kicking out to open water on an inner tube), and the Internet and other forms of communication with the outside world are still restricted and controlled by the government.
It is a police state, and everyday life is tough for most Cubans as they struggle to make ends meet. Every Cuban I know talks about how the state-provided monthly basket of rations might get them through the first week of the month, but after that, they are left scrambling trying to feed their families for the next three weeks of the month. It’s a constant, bitter struggle.
Over the decades, as communist regimes fell all across the former Soviet block, the unique island nature of Cuba allowed it to muddle through, defying the odds, limping along, first with generous help from the Russians in the form of aid and subsidies. Later, when their Russian patron left and after the difficult “Special Period” of forced austerity, former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez stepped to the fore and provided generous assistance to Cuba in the form of subsidized oil worth billions of dollars.
Flash forward to 2014, and in a surprise move, almost 53 years since President John F. Kennedy started the comprehensive economic embargo on Cuba, President Barack Obama announced plans to restore political relations with Cuba and to loosen sanctions, explaining that he thought engagement with Cuba was a better strategy than trying to isolate them. Truth be told, the news was met with overwhelming indifference by about 95 percent of the U.S. population outside of the Washington beltway and Florida. The only people who care passionately about the Cuba issue are in Florida, and they are split on the issue, with most of the older ones favoring a continuation of the embargo and most of the younger ones favoring a loosening of the embargo.
What has actually happened then in the last two plus years after Obama’s bold announcement? Surprisingly little. There were some symbolic events. Amid much fanfare, Secretary of State John Kerry went to the Cuban capital Havana in August 2015 and “opened” the U.S. Embassy. President Obama visited Cuba in March 2016 – the first visit by a U.S. President to Cuba in 88 years. Heck, even the Rolling Stones went to Cuba and gave a free concert, and we learned that Mick Jagger speaks pretty good Spanish (his first wife was Nicaraguan).
But, while the U.S. President can unilaterally restore diplomatic relations and open an embassy, he cannot unilaterally undo more than 50 years of U.S. law. So, maybe the more interesting question is, what has happened on the Cuban side? Remarkably, very little there, too, and that’s a tragedy. Rather than take the initiative and make significant changes in policies, Cuban President Raul Castro (Fidel Castro’s brother) has not only failed to seize the day, he has failed to do much of anything.
In the United States, any forward progress on this issue seems stuck on the fact that, as stated above, 95 percent of America does not really care about the embargo or Cuban politics, while maybe 5 percent passionately support the embargo. But, on the Cuban side, why not embrace the new relationship developed under the Obama administration and create real change? Meanwhile, every day life is harsh for most Cubans and Venezuela’s support to the country continues to diminish, as Venezuela faces its own economic troubles.
Maybe nothing has been done on the Cuban side because of the reality that the regime could probably not survive significant Foreign Direct Investment. It appears that there is a real fear in the Cuban government that if the embargo went away and there was suddenly a McDonald’s and a Hard Rock Cafe in Havana, people and ideas would flood to Cuba and Raul Castro wouldn’t last three months.
What is President Donald Trump going to do? In October 2016, then-candidate Trump tweeted very clearly, “Will reverse Obama’s executive orders and concessions toward Cuba until freedoms are restored.” He later reiterated this position in speeches. One of Trump’s closest advisors on Cuba policy is said to be Marico Claver-Carone, whom Trump appointed to his transition team, which sends a clear signal to the Cuban-American community that Trump endorses Claver-Carone’s oft stated hard line position on Cuba and the embargo. Trump also wrote a 1999 editorial in the Miami Herald supporting the trade embargo against Cuba. Meanwhile, Republican Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, along with Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, were ardent critics of Obama’s moves and would welcome a roll back of Obama executive actions on Cuba.
On the other hand, Trump is, in his heart, a pragmatic businessman, and as such, he might find it difficult to unwind Obama’s nascent opening to Cuba. U.S. airlines, for example, just ramped up direct flights to the island to handle the increasing demand from tourism and family visits. Trump is also on record as characterizing the restoration of diplomatic relations with Cuba as “fine” and something he is likely to continue. To sum up the confusion and to state the obvious, Trump Counselor Kellyanne Conway commented that “nothing is definite” on Trump’s policies vis-à-vis Cuba.
The 85-year old Raul Castro promises he will be stepping down as the President of Cuba next year. Perhaps then we can pursue a dialogue and real change. Until that time, it is difficult to envision that any real progress on U.S.-Cuba relations will be made.
