Security is of upmost importance to Israel in the extremely volatile Middle East. Yaakov Perry spent nearly 30 years in Shin Bet, rising through the ranks and eventually becoming the director of the Israeli security agency. Perry tells The Cipher Brief that the Iran nuclear deal, the Russian intervention in Syria, and the future of discussions with the Palestinians all present serious challenges for both the U.S. and his country.
The Cipher Brief: What is your assessment of the current relationship between U.S. and Israel? Will it take new leadership in these countries for the relationship to improve?
Yaakov Perry: A deep crisis prevails between this Israeli government and this American administration, which cannot be solved simply by replacing the two countries’ leaders. The crisis is rooted in the nuclear deal with Iran. The United States, Israel’s greatest friend, negotiated a deal, which is undoubtedly a bad deal.
The way in which the Israeli government chose to react to the bad deal, widened the rift with the United States and also led to the personal crisis in the relationship between the leaders. The meeting that took place on Monday between President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was meant to help normalize the relationship and close the rift. Still, I am doubtful that these efforts will be successful before the end of Obama’s term. Certainly, there is room to criticize the manner in which the Israeli government voiced its valid concerns. They could have been expressed in ways that would not have created this unfortunate rupture between the two administrations and the personal crisis between the two leaders.
The disagreements between the two allies are not limited to the Iranian nuclear deal, but also include the issue of negotiations with the Palestinians, among other things. We are all hopeful that the strong friendship, the generous aid, and mutual cooperation will continue regardless of leadership changes, and that the alliance returns to its normal fruitful path soon.
TCB: How do you see developments in the region – such as the Iran nuclear deal, the rise of ISIS, and Russia’s increased involvement in Syria – impacting security and defense cooperation between the U.S. and Israel?
YP: There is a troubling trend in the region. All the states and areas surrounding Israel are turbulent as the brutal radical Islamists expand their terrorist branches everywhere we look.
Russia’s intervention in Syria is very significant on three parameters. First, it will change the fight against ISIS and the other radical Islamist organizations. Second, it will help the attempt to preserve President Bashar al-Assad’s reign. Third, it changes the struggle between the American-led Western bloc and the Russian-led bloc.
As for the fight against ISIS, Russia’s entry is supposed to be a very positive development due to the largely futile effort of the coalition put together by the Western powers. When it comes to Assad’s regime, we certainly will soon have a much smaller Syria, which is very dependent on the Russians.
And Russia’s intervention changes the struggle between the American-led and Russian-led blocs, and directly impacts collaboration between the United States and Israel in all aspects, including intelligence, military, technology, and practical cooperation. U.S. policy decisions will certainly be driven by Russia’s massive involvement and the consequences it has on the American-Russian relationship, as well as the American-Israeli relationship.
I believe Israel and the United States will cooperate wisely in order to avoid both hurting their special alliance and being perceived as “interrupting” the Russian effort to weaken radical Islamists.
TCB: What are some of the causes for the recent uptick in violence in Israel? Do Israelis view the current situation as the "Third Intifada?" How has the violence impacted Israel’s domestic security?
YP: Israel is unfortunately already used to recurring waves of terrorism. We have experienced similar waves in the past. The main reason for the current escalation of violence is the incitement centered on the Temple Mount and the Al-Aksa mosque in Jerusalem. We have been witnessing a trend of escalation in this area for the last two years, and this issue has become intensively and extremely volatile.
Behind the recent outbreak stands a large group of inciters, mostly from the Northern Faction of the Islamic Movement in Israel, as well as affiliates of the Palestinian Authority, which constantly stay at the entrance to the Temple Mount and Al-Aksa mosque and invoke violence. There is also no question that politicians and members of the Knesset, both from right wing and Arab parties, have contributed to this escalation.
In the last month and a half, 12 civilians and soldiers have been killed mostly by stabbings, but also from gunfire and vehicle attacks. Two hundred were wounded in the attacks, the vast majority in critical condition. This terror wave, which started in Jerusalem and expanded to the entire country, has undermined the sense of personal security for citizens.
It is still too early to call this current wave “Intifada,” since the term means “popular uprising,” and we are still seeing, at this stage, that the individual terrorism feeds on itself and is driven by incitement.
TCB: What is current relationship between the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority? What can both governing bodies do to quell the violence?
YP: An effective and active mechanism of security cooperation on the ground exists between the Palestinian Authority and the State of Israel. Both powers attempt to calm the situation. Having said that, it should be noted that within the Palestinians exists a sense of desperation, frustration, and mistrust. Similar feelings are shared by both the Palestinian leadership in Ramallah and the Israeli leadership in Jerusalem.
It should be mentioned that there is no magical solution to the terrorism we are witnessing now. Israel has dramatically raised its efforts to deter terrorists by harshening the punishments and conducting many arrests. The Palestinian Authority has no interest in an escalation, and so while it does not act with the same intensity as Israel does, it does not work to exasperate the situation.
