ISIS is part of the multi-generational struggle against radical Islam which will likely dominate the first half of the 21st century similar to the fight against communism which dominated the second half of the 20th century. ISIS is the most successful terrorist organization in modern history. It is driven by a religious-based ideology with significant geopolitical objectives to establish an extensive caliphate that touches the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
ISIS has 3 major goals:
The first is to defend Syria and Iraq. While the group has lost some territory, ISIS views its operations in Syria and Iraq as largely successful, because it still controls large swaths of territory. Despite US and the coalition attempts to degrade and destroy ISIS, the group is recruiting at the same rate, maintaining tactical and operational initiative, and is able to logistically sustain its forces.
The second is to use its headquarters in Syria to expand in the "near abroad" by establishing affiliate organizations (Wilayats), which is a formal relationship in 8 countries and regions: Saudi Arabia, Libya, Egypt, Afghanistan/Pakistan, Yemen, Nigeria, North Caucasus, and Algeria. ISIS provides guidance and resources to these affiliates. The affiliates are attempting to control a swath of territory inside these countries and regions while undermining the local government. As we know, Wilayat Sinai is suspected of downing a Russian aircraft.
The third major thrust is to influence the "far abroad," which are largely countries that are supporting the coalition against ISIS (U.S., Europe, and Australia) by inspiring and motivating radicals, by averaging thousands of social media posts per day, and by returning fighters from Syria who are trained and motivated to attack their own citizens at home. Obviously the recent attacks in France and Lebanon are examples. ISIS attempts to divide and polarize these societies by weakening the people's resolve to support their government’s efforts against ISIS and to fragment and polarize the non-Muslim and Muslim populations.
What ISIS has accomplished in the last two weeks is unprecedented. While conducting a conventional war in Iraq and Syria, ISIS has staged terrorist attacks on a global scale against the people from the countries who are fighting ISIS. The result is almost 900 casualties in 12 days, both killed and wounded, who are Russian, Lebanese, and mostly French. Can you imagine the impact if the Nazis were conducting terrorist activities in major American cities while the US was fighting the Nazis in Europe?
Clearly ISIS is not contained and is far from defeated. The United States and our allied partners need to wake up. ISIS is at war with us, but America is not truly at war with ISIS – not the President, nor the Congress and certainly not the American people.
Syria is ISIS’ center of gravity. It’s where Baghdadi exploited a stalemated civil war, established a sanctuary, and created the world’s largest terrorist army. To defeat ISIS, it must be destroyed in Syria, and yet there is no strategy to do so. As long as ISIS continues to exist in the face of superior allied militaries, it creates an aura of invincibility and destiny, which draws radicals to the movement and inspires them to fight for the caliphate and, or, kill their fellow citizens.
The U.S. must step up and recognize that the policy of "strategic patience" is an excuse for a lack of a coherent strategy to defeat ISIS. Time is truly an issue because the longer the ISIS sanctuary in Syria remains, the longer the killing and barbarism continues with an ever-increasing threat to the U.S. Now is the time for a revised strategy with our European and Middle East allies to stabilize Syria politically and defeat ISIS militarily in Iraq and Syria.
