India and China, two of the oldest civilizations, had friendly relations and learned from each other in history. As Rabindranath Tagore put it, “China and India are very old and beloved brothers.”
The Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, or Panchsheel Agreement of 1954, was a milestone of India-China brotherhood and long guided their relations. The 1962 border war cast a long shadow on the relationship, and with geo-political changes since then, the strategic relationship has not been able to reach its previous height.
Political and economic relations have significantly improved in recent years. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to India in September 2014 made history: he started his trip in Gujarat, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state—it was the first time an Indian Prime Minister received a foreign head of state outside of the capital. The two leaders signed 12 agreements, with China pledging to invest $20 billion in India's infrastructure over five years. During Modi’s return visit to China in May 2015, the two sides signed 24 agreements worth over $10 billion.
While economic and political ties have strengthened, there are obstacles to improving strategic relations. Both India and China play geo-political games in international security. For example, Xi flew into India after visiting Maldives and Sri Lanka, both in India's backyard. The visits raised the specter of growing Chinese influence in these countries. But just as Xi was landing in Ahmedabad, Indian President Pranab Mukherjee was returning from a three-day visit to Vietnam, a key Indian partner in China's backyard and a country having territorial disputes with China.
The bilateral relationship is heavily influenced by third parties, particularly the United States. India has been wooed in recent years by the United States, Japan, and Southeast Asian countries as a counter-balance to China. A loose U.S.-Japan-India-Australia security alliance appears to be emerging. But India has not publicly identified China as a menace, keeping some distance from the U.S. “pivot” or rebalance to Asia. A leader in the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), India continues to follow an independent foreign policy while seeking close ties with other powers. Fully aware it cannot afford to live with two hostile neighbors, India has worked to improve relations with both Pakistan and China.
The Indians are proud of living in the world’s largest democracy, but the Chinese tend to view India from a position of economic superiority. For the Chinese, India is not a major power yet, and the bilateral relationship today is asymmetric. China always looms large in India’s strategic calculations since India treats China as the top rival. Indians take great pride in beating China in different aspects, such as annual economic growth rate. But China does not consider India an economic or strategic peer—China’s eyes are on the United States and Japan. India is concerned about China’s expanding clout and ambitions in South and Southeast Asia, while China is suspicious of India’s potential intention of joining the United States and Japan to counter China’s rise.
China’s “One Belt, One Road” project, which includes leasing the strategically located Gwadar Port, unnerves India, who is particularly uneasy about the China-Pakistan “all weather friendship.” India’s Project Mausam, a transnational initiative meant to revive its ancient maritime routes and cultural linkages with countries in the region, is widely perceived as India’s response to China’s maritime silk road initiative.
India’s hosting of the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan government-in-exile has long been a thorn in India-China relations. Besides, the border issue remains unresolved, creating tensions within the generally friendly relationship. The good news is that despite difficulties, India-China relations have become mature and both sides desire to keep the relationship strong and stable. The era of “Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai” may not return any time soon, but the interdependent relationship is unlikely to turn antagonistic.
For countries in the Indo-Pacific, both India and China are valued partners. Just like they do not want to choose between the United States and China, they hope to benefit from a more cooperative India-China relationship.
