Paul Kolbe, Director, Intelligence Project, Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
Paul Kolbe is Director of The Intelligence Project at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. He previously served 25 years as an operations officer in the CIA and was a member of the Senior Intelligence Service, serving in Russia, the Balkans, Indonesia, East Germany, Zimbabwe, and Austria.
This piece was first published by our friends at Russia Matters, from Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
According to U.S. officials, Russia is the likely perpetrator of the SolarWinds cyber compromise of federal agencies, private sector firms, NGOs and academic institutions. The scale and impact brought accusations of a reckless and indiscriminate operation. Some politicians labeled this an act of war, while other commentators dismissed the SolarWinds compromise as espionage. Calls for retribution were widespread.
We know few details about the breadth, depth and impact of the SolarWinds cyber operation, though the scale was clearly massive with over 18,000 SolarWinds customers uploading malware-laden tools. But we do not know which companies and agencies have been affected, what information was compromised or whether damage occurred to any information systems. This lack of public disclosure likely represents caution in revealing what is known and not known, but also signals the difficulty of assessing just how bad we’ve been had.
So how should the U.S. respond?
A natural inclination will be to strike back in order to modify future Russian behavior and to introduce stronger cyber deterrence for other potential actors. Responses might include declaring Russian intelligence personnel persona non grata, indictment of perpetrators, targeted sanctions and execution of similar operations against select Russian systems. The aim would not just be punishment, but to change the risk-gain calculation for Russia, and others, when considering new cyber operations.
But frankly, all of these actions have been tried in the past and have not slowed the cyber onslaught. Russia does appreciate and adhere to reciprocity, and a specific and carefully calibrated shot across the bow is appropriate in response to SolarWinds. But we should not kid ourselves and think that such responses will stop cyber espionage or assaults. We are simply too fat and easy a target.
For this reason, retaliation is neither the most urgent nor the most important task at hand. Our most critical mission is to relentlessly and comprehensively improve our cyber defense.
SolarWinds dramatically exposed what many cyber experts have known and warned of: that the United States is pervasively, systemically vulnerable. Our attack surface—the systems, networks and devices that can be targeted and compromised—is stupendously large. The skill and number of U.S. adversaries—the states, criminal organizations and individuals who would exploit those vulnerabilities—is proliferating. Russia is but one wolf in an evolving and growing pack of cyber predators.
