On Thursday, U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter announced a “…regular periodic presence [in the Philippines] of American forces,” something that has not occurred since the Philippines voted to expel U.S. forces in 1991. The announcement in Manila is an important milestone in the resurrection of one of the U.S.’s oldest Pacific alliances. It is equally representative of the rapid deterioration of Sino-Filipino relations. Manila was the first to take Beijing to international court over a maritime territorial dispute. The legal action was done in part because the Philippines lacks the defensive capabilities to deter China. Carter’s announcement of sustained U.S. troop presence and joint maritime patrols signals not only that the U.S. is willing to fill the capability gap, but that Manila is eager to allow it to do so.
Carter’s visit coincides with the 32nd joint military exercise known as Balikatan, or “shoulder to shoulder” in Tagalog. The exercise, composed of U.S., Filipino, and Australian armed forces, seeks to enhance joint operations among the international forces in the event of conflict or humanitarian disasters. Additionally, the visit will be an occasion for the defense secretary to make a case that the U.S. be granted access to three additional military bases, in addition to the five agreed upon in March. This was the culmination of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (ECDA), a 2014 accord that allowed the return of U.S. forces back to the Philippines after their departure in 1991.
The 2016 Balikatan exercise continues a trend in increased troop participation that began last year. The 2015 exercise saw a near doubling of forces from six thousand to over 11 thousand, and this year’s drill involves more than 10 thousand troops. Though not expressed explicitly, this increase is a reaction to China’s heightened activity in waters claimed by the Philippines in the South China Sea. The shift is not only visible in the number of troops. The structure of the exercises has changed as well. For many years, the Balikatan exercises were meant to practice counter terrorism (CT) operations against Abu Sayyaf, the extremist Muslim group entrenched on islands in the south west Philippines. Instead of practicing CT operations, the recent exercises have focused on amphibious landings and retaking islands captured by enemy forces. Though Abu Sayyaf, which has claimed allegiance to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, remains as a deadly and pernicious threat, the U.S.-Philippines alliance has chosen to make maritime operations the new defense priority.
In addition to joint exercises, the U.S. Department of Defense has recently committed to a $425 million funding package over the next five years as part of the Maritime Security Initiative (MSI). The funding will help build the maritime security capabilities of five South East Asian states: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines, whose national coast guard will be one of the first beneficiaries.
The added U.S. financial support is an important and timely boost for the Philippines’s security efforts. According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute data, among countries with maritime disputes against China in the South China Sea (Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines, Cambodia, Brunei) the Philippines lags behind nearly everyone in defense spending as a percentage of GDP at 1.3. Manila has much to lose in the territorial disputes and has already effectively lost control of the economically important Scarborough Shoal to China. It has recognized its shortcomings by steadily increasing its defense spending. Such spending efforts will take time to bear results, and U.S. support will remain necessary for at least several more years.
In return, the U.S. will gain access to some of the most strategically located bases in the South Pacific. Some, like Clark Air Base, once housed 20 thousand American personnel. This will put U.S. aircraft just 120 miles away from Scarborough Shoal. Another air base is only 100 miles away from the Spratly Islands, one of the contested land forms artificially enlarged by China to accommodate an airstrip and other military facilities. Carter emphasized that the troop and aircraft additions were meant to “tamp down tensions” with China, not inflame them. However, China is unlikely to share the Secretary’s sentiments. Whatever the impact may be, the U.S. and the Philippines are now working shoulder to shoulder in the South China Sea.
Will Edwards is an International Producer with The Cipher Brief.
