The three suicide bombers who carried out Tuesday’s deadly attack at Istanbul’s Ataturk Airport have been identified by a Turkish official as citizens of Russia, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, according to press reports.
No group has claimed responsibility for the attack that killed at least 44 people and wounded hundreds more, but Turkey has blamed ISIS, and CIA director John Brennan said it “certainly bears the hallmarks of ISIL’s depravity.”
As the death toll mounts and Turkey continues with its investigation, anti-terror police launched 16 raids in response to the attack and arrested 13 people, including four foreigners, the state-run news service Anadolu Agency reported.
The Cipher Brief turned to former director of CIA's National Clandestine Service, Michael Sulick, for insight on the latest development that the attackers were from Russia and the Central Asian nations of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Sulick weighed in on the significance of the attackers’ alleged nationalities, what it could mean for Turkey’s relationships with its neighbors, and just how Moscow may react to the news.
The Cipher Brief: What are your thoughts on the significance of the Istanbul attackers being Russian, Uzbek, and Kyrgyz nationals?
Mike Sulick: There are two issues at play. For one, the attack will reenergize the debate about Russia’s role in Syria. The Russians will use the presence of a Dagestani citizen as one of the attackers as justification for their continued role in Syria, ostensibly to cooperate in the fight against ISIS. But at the same time it’s common knowledge that the Russians are there to combat political opponents of the government so they can prop up the Assad regime.
Second, this also highlights for the general public in the West that the Russian Caucasus and Central Asia are breeding grounds for terrorism. The Western media tends to focus on Westerners fighting for ISIS. At the same time, according to some estimates, there are over 2,000 Central Asians with ISIS, and that number could actually be higher.
The problem is that Russia and Central Asian governments are unfortunately breeding terrorism with their policies. In the Caucasus, there has been this endless cycle of first rebellion by the fiercely independent and mostly Muslim inhabitants, followed by brutal subjugation by Russian regimes, and that in turn rekindled new revolts and more crackdowns. The Central Asian states seem to be a bizarre combination of Middle Eastern despots and Soviet era autocrats, and they provoke the same endless cycle. They want to stifle any political opposition, and they are afraid of terrorism, so they brutally repress any signs of conservative Islam. That only radicalizes the disaffected citizens, especially young people, which helps ISIS recruitment efforts and drives new radicals underground where they can plot, hidden away from their governments.
TCB: How will the attack affect Turkish-Russian relations moving forward?
MS: It could in the case of Russia, where relations are already strained. Turkey just recently apologized for the downing of the Russian airplane a few months ago. But there is another possible issue. An investigative report done by an independent Russian newspaper, Novaya Gazeta, claims that Russian security forces were actually encouraging or even orchestrating travel of some people in the Caucasus to the Middle East. Supposedly, the idea behind this was to rid the Caucasus of radical jihadists so they wouldn’t commit terror acts inside the Russian Federation. Now, if that’s the case, you could have had a Dagestani citizen who was eased out of Russia to go off to Syria or Iraq to join ISIS and then winds up returning to Istanbul to participate in the attack at the airport.
TCB: Do you think this will put increased pressure on Moscow to further crack down against ISIS cells in the Caucasus?
MS: For the Russians, any incident like this justifies further crackdowns in the Caucasus, especially in Dagestan where things have been heating up recently.
There are also an increasing number of militant Islamic commanders and religious leaders who are swearing allegiance to ISIS. As a result, Russia faces the same threat now as Western countries do – citizens going off to fight for ISIS and then possibly returning to commit terrorist acts at home. I’ve seen figures where the Russians estimate that 2,000-3,000 citizens have already joined ISIS in the Middle East, and there are more ISIS members now who speak Russian than any other language except Arabic and English. Besides this, right after Putin started his bombing campaign in Syria, ISIS declared a holy war against Russia, and since then, it’s been using social media to encourage lone wolf attacks inside the country.
TCB: Is it feasible that we could see more attacks from nationals from these nations?
MS: Definitely. I’ve talked of the cycle of oppression, which in turn radicalizes, but the situation has been getting worse in the Caucasus and Central Asia because of the economy. Central Asia is very dependent on Russia, and so the Putin regime’s economic problems have seriously affected the region. Because of decreased oil prices and Western sanctions, Russia’s economic problems have resulted in setbacks to the Central Asian economies as well, particularly the devaluation of the Ruble, decreased consumer demands for their exports, and then layoffs from key industries.
But an even more serious issue is that there are thousands of Central Asians from places like Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan who are working abroad, primarily in Russia, and now deteriorating economic conditions have reduced their remittances back home, which is actually a significant part of the region’s economy. About one-third of Uzbeks actually work outside the country. in Tajikistan, remittances –at one time—accounted for half of the nation’s GDP and in Kyrgyzstan, almost one third of the GDP. Now you have thousands of workers without jobs or with less money than before to send home, who as a result are even more attractive recruitment targets for ISIS. So this probably won’t be the last time that we see Central Asians or citizens of the Caucasus involved in terrorist activities.
