The Fund for Peace’s (FFP) 2016 Fragile States Index ranks Hungary, under Prime Minister Viktor Orban, as the “most-worsened” country this year, due in part to its recent track record on refugees, human rights, and rule of law. FFP Executive Director J. J. Messner, who is also the editor of the fragile states report, speaks with The Cipher Brief about Hungary’s shaky position.
The Cipher Brief: This year’s index finds Hungary is the “most-worsened” country, year-on-year, for 2016? What does this mean?
J.J. Messner: Hungary is the most-worsened country in the 2016 Fragile States Index, which means that its total point score has increased by a greater margin since 2015 than any other country. Every country is assessed based on 12 social, economic, and political indicators, and we are able to track each country’s trend lines over time. Hungary’s combined score increased most between 2015 and 2016, largely thanks to worsening indicator scores across multiple indicators, notably the Refugees, Group Grievance, and Human Rights & Rule of Law indicators.
TCB: The report also finds that nearly half of the most-worsened countries since 2015 are European. What trends are happening on the continent that contribute to this?
JM: It is not only Hungary that is facing challenges posed by refugee flows – indeed, a number of European nations are facing similar challenges. However, it would be wrong to assume that the increasing fragility across Europe is entirely due to refugee flows. Economic malaise, coupled with growing nationalism and internal societal schisms in various European countries, are contributing to a worsening trend across much of the continent.
TCB: What’s going on in Hungary in particular that contribute to it being the most-worsened?
JM: The refugee flows are undoubtedly posing a challenge for Hungary, but no more so than many of its neighbors. The challenge for any country in that situation is as much about its response as it is the initial cause. Hungary has been trending worse for a few years, and its response to the refugee issue is in line with the Orban government’s growing illiberalism and nationalism, characterized by encroachments on the freedom of the press and a rapidly shrinking space for civil society.
TCB: What are your thoughts on the October 2 referendum on migration in Hungary, in which a majority of voters chose to reject mandatory EU migrant quotas, but less than 50 percent of Hungarians participated?
JM: There were clear shortcomings with the October 2 referendum, including its very premise and widespread boycotting. The Orban government’s attempts to seize upon such a flawed vote demonstrate deeper concerns about governance and rule of law in Hungary, particularly superimposed upon growing nationalism.
TCB: Is democracy weakening under Prime Minister Viktor Orban?
JM: The ruling Fidesz government has limited the powers of the judiciary and stacked it with political allies. There are allegations that a change in the electoral system allowed the party to sweep to victory again in 2014. As restrictions on the freedom of the press have increased, Hungary’s public television channels have been packed with pro-Fidesz journalists. These measures have all culminated in a rapidly shrinking space for civil society and threats to the rights and freedoms of Hungarians. Given that, and the illiberal, nationalistic stance taken by the government in its response to the refugee issue, it would suggest that democratic principles are increasingly being undermined.
