Jabhat al-Nusra, al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, is "splitting" from the al Qaeda network. During a news conference earlier today, Nusra leader Abu-Muhammad al-Joulani appeared on television to announce his group’s severing of ties with al Qaeda and the formation of a new independent organization known as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham.
With Jabhat al-Nusra no longer boasting the al Qaeda brand, this will mark yet another segment in a growing line of radical jihadist groups who are casting away the al Qaeda label.
But why is this happening, and what does this mean for al Qaeda moving forward?
Al Qaeda’s unrivaled supremacy atop the global jihadist movement stood for more than a decade. From its base spanning Afghanistan and Pakistan, al Qaeda was able to sprout nodes across the world, most notably in Algeria, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Nigeria, Somalia, Syria, and Yemen.
However, in February 2014, al Qaeda emir Ayman al-Zawahiri renounced ties to ISIS and its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi after years of tumultuous relations between core al Qaeda and its branch al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), which subsequently became ISIS. This marked the first time that al Qaeda’s leadership formally disassociated from an affiliate.
“[ISIS] is not a branch of the al-Qaeda group . . . does not have an organizational relationship with it and [al-Qaeda] is not the group responsible for their actions,” al Qaeda’s General Command said in a statement released that February.
In the ensuing months and years, several terrorist organizations have since pledged their allegiance, or bayat, to ISIS, with some, including Boko Haram in Nigeria and factions of Al Shabaab in Somalia, even switching their loyalties from al Qaeda to ISIS. Additionally, several new jihadist organizations have popped up around the world and declared their support for ISIS. Last week, the Brazilian jihadist group Ansar al Khalifa posted a message of support for ISIS through the Telegram app, providing ISIS with its first “official” presence in South America.
Whether these shifts from al Qaeda to ISIS are financial — ISIS has been cited by U.S. officials as the wealthiest terrorist group in modern history — or purely opportunistic in line with ISIS’ growing appeal, poaching groups from the al Qaeda network has cultivated a deep rupture in the global jihadist movement.
The al Qaeda-ISIS rivalry can be likened to a competition between the old school and the new. ISIS has used its robust social media campaign and technological advances, along with its lust for blood, to attract a significant number of followers, while, al Qaeda is considered by many to be a relic of the past, still transmitting announcements via VHS videos and audio recordings.
Differences can also be identified in the ideologies of the two groups as outlined by Mary Habeck, Professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and author of Knowing the Enemy: Jihadist Ideology and the War on Terror. “Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi, a well-known extremist member of the ulama with links to al-Qaeda, published a stinging rebuke to the errant Levantine jihadists. In his fatwa, Maqdisi listed the crimes of ISIS, including a refusal to accept arbitration and reconciliation, disobedience to its commanders (i.e. al-Qaeda and Zawahiri), shedding the blood of Muslims, and a heretical extremism,” she explained in a 2014 article.
Others, such as Cipher Brief expert and former CIA counterterrorism analyst, Aki Peritz, offer alternative explanations for the friction between the two leading jihadist groups. “There have been numerous rationales advanced over the years from a doctrinal, strategic, or tactical perspective, but it probably just boils down to this: everyone’s ego,” he writes.
And the egos on ISIS’ side seem to be taking the spotlight, as demonstrated by ISIS’ domination of news headlines. Since announcing its caliphate in June 2014, ISIS has taken responsibility for numerous attacks around the world and has been linked to nearly every violent incident even when a jihadi motive is not necessarily apparent. All the while, al Qaeda has seemingly fallen into the background.
This has pushed ISIS to the forefront of the U.S. counterterrorism agenda for the past two years. While the U.S.- led coalition has certainly made progress in the fight against ISIS, much work remains to be done.
“I would venture the guesstimate that we are perhaps 25 percent of the way toward neutralizing the worst threats ISIS poses,” said John McLaughlin, Cipher Brief expert and former Deputy Director of the CIA. “But the remaining 75 percent will be harder,” he added.
As ISIS continues to lose territory in its self-declared caliphate in Syria and Iraq, some experts are concerned about the potential for an al Qaeda-ISIS reconciliation. In September 2015, Zawahiri extended somewhat of an olive branch to Baghdadi when he released a 45-minute clip about the need for all jihadist factions in Syria to join in fighting a common enemy. This March, terrorism expert Bruce Hoffman wrote in Foreign Affairs that an “al Qaeda–ISIS merger is not as farfetched as some wishfully contend.”
Yet despite these overtures, it does not appear that an al Qaeda-ISIS rapprochement is in the immediate cards. But it’s a notion that the international community cannot afford to ignore.
Bennett Seftel is the deputy director of editorial at The Cipher Brief.
