A whirlwind of actions and statements regarding Hong Kong over the past week has increased tensions between the US and China. Even before Beijing passed legislation last week to move in the direction of imposing new national security restrictions on Hong Kong, the US was contemplating a bold response.
It's been a busy week:
- Wednesday, May 27: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announces that Hong Kong is no longer autonomous from China. It’s an announcement that could significantly impact the US’ special trade status with Hong Kong and could have far-reaching financial implications.
- Thursday, May 28: China’s National People’s Congress approves a proposal for a new national security bill for Hong Kong, beginning the process to work out details of the new legislation that could take several months to hammer out.
- Friday, May 29: President Trump says his administration will ‘begin the process’ of ending the US’ special relationship with Hong Kong that could impact extradition agreements and export controls.
- Monday, June 1: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says the US is considering welcoming people from Hong Kong in response to Beijing’s push for new legislation.
The Cipher Brief spoke with Expert, Ambassador Joseph Detrani about what this could mean for Hong Kong, China and the US in the near term.
Ambassador DeTrani is former Special envoy for Six Party Talks with North Korea as well as former CIA director of East Asia Operations. He has also served as the Associate Director of National Intelligence and Mission Manager for North Korea and the Director of the National Counter Proliferation Center, while also serving as a Special Adviser to the Director of National Intelligence.
The Cipher Brief: Do you agree with the US Assessment that Beijing has violated parts of its obligation under the original 1984 agreement?
Ambassador DeTrani: I do believe China has violated that agreement, which was signed by Chairman Deng Xiaoping and UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in 1984 and was the basis for moving forward with reversion in 1997.
The words Deng used were ‘one country, two systems’. That treaty has been memorialized at the highest levels and regarding the latest national security law, I don't think we should be too surprised that China's National People's Congress passed this nationally. We saw it coming going back to the arrest of the book publisher, and then with the recent issue of the extradition law and most recently, with Martin Lee and the pro-democracy arrests. This was something I believe the world saw coming. Personally, I think it's a death knell for ‘one country, two systems’. The national security law makes it very clear that China will intercede on all issues including ‘terrorism and sedition’.
The decision not to defer to the Hong Kong legislature, which is supposed to pass national security laws, but to preempt it, makes it pretty clear that the Chinese Communist Party with Xi Jinping as the chairman has decided they're going to determine the fate of Hong Kong. I think the actions taken by the White House, as articulated, were justified.
The Cipher Brief: Some of the actions announced by the White House also include sanctions for Chinese and Hong Kong officials who the U.S. believes were involved in the passing of this latest law. Is that going to have an impact?
Ambassador DeTrani: Yes, I think it will. Obviously, it's going to affect trade and our law enforcement relationship with Hong Kong and things like extradition. But certainly, the sanctions are very strategically focused on individuals and organizations and whether it's the element of the Chinese Liaison Office in Hong Kong or the Hong Kong Macau Office that oversees relations with Hong Kong and individuals who were running those organizations. I think it's a powerful message, and I think it's a message to China that very clearly at the highest level, the U.S. is irate with that decision and it will affect our relationship with Hong Kong in a very profound way.
The Cipher Brief: Many in the US national security community, have commented over the last few years to us here at The Cipher Brief about the level of investment China has made in terms of intelligence gathering and presence in the United States. US officials announced recently that they are planning to revoke the visas of approximately 3,000 students here in the United States who they believe have ties to the Chinese military. Are we going to see more of this type of action as the US continues to ratchet up their posture against China?
Ambassador DeTrani: I believe we will be seeing more from the United States and hopefully we will see similar actions on the part of our allies and partners around the world. This is not just a US issue in reaction to China's behavior regarding Hong Kong. This should affect all countries in Europe, East Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa. I think we will probably see more.
You mentioned the 3000 students, I think these will be researchers or graduate students who were in the sciences working with, or having some sort of an affiliation with, Chinese military organizations, or a fusion between the military and private sector organizations. It touches on the whole issue of intellectual property and the need to ensure that academic exchanges are totally academic. The purpose should not be to steal one country’s intellectual property or to steal one's dedicated research, which is proprietary. I think we'll see much greater scrutiny of those who are coming to the United States, especially at the postgraduate level.
The Cipher Brief: During a press conference last week, President Trump referenced the sentiment at the time surrounding the 1984 agreement on Hong Kong. He said that the world back then looks forward and hopes that mainland China would follow the path of Hong Kong and reflect more of the culture of its most vibrant city. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened, and as China has marched forward, it's not reflective of the culture of Hong Kong. In fact, most would agree China has gone the opposite way. It’s now 2020, and we're dealing with a rising China that's challenging US dominance in many critical areas, including their plans to establish manufacturing independence in the very near future. Where is the US relationship with China headed, and how do you see this playing out?
Ambassador DeTrani: You mentioned 1984, when Chairman Deng Xiaoping was in charge, and he did a great job transforming China's economy. He looked to the United States to do it. He was the one who encouraged students to come to the United States in large numbers. The cooperation between China and the United States in 1984, and in the eighties and nineties was very significant on a lot of the geo-strategic issues to include the Soviet Union and Afghanistan, but also things like counterproliferation. There was a lot of cooperation, including military-to-military, and I think the hope at that time was that China would transform elements of society to move, to put it in simple terms, more in our direction of a pluralistic society, that democratization would kick in and the rule of law would permeate.
That continued throughout the 2000s and up until China’s entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001. I think this was all very aspirational and I think the sense now is a lot of disappointment that China did not transform in that way, but it shouldn't be that we're (the US) a hundred percent right and they are a hundred percent wrong.
Our view was that democratization and a pluralistic society, and the rule of law would benefit the people and would make China a very responsible stakeholder. So, there's a lot of disappointment, especially when you look at things like intellectual property, when you look at the whole question of the South China Sea, when you look at now what we're talking about, Hong Kong and basic law, which was a commitment at the Deng Xiaoping level, that's now being walked back.
The basic law is in their Constitution, and that goes to 2047. Now, Beijing is saying, well the national security legislation we're passing now, we're abrogating that and we're just going to make those determinations. So, there is a lot of disappointment, but obviously it's their system. And you have a leader in China, Xi Jinping, who's now basically president for life. We'll have to see what happens in 2022, if he opts to run for a third five-year term, which would be unprecedented, it's always been two.
But you touched on important things, one being the ‘Made in China 2025’ initiative, which is their plan for China to become the dominant leader in advanced technological areas and to certainly be a critical player, if not to dominate the world, but to be co-equal certainly with countries like the United States.
When you look at the trend lines, there’s a lot to be disappointed about. The most recent is with the national security law in Hong Kong and also what's going on in the South China Sea. That’s a significant manifestation of what's going on with the elements of intimidation toward Vietnam and Malaysia and dedicating certain administrative regions there that were contrary to the UN International Court's decision in 2016. Although, I’ll add that the nine-dash line is not a legally binding commitment to other countries.
All of this signifies the need for even more of a dialogue with China and even more of the message that there's an opportunity here in cooperating on things like COVID-19 and counterproliferation, counterterrorism and so forth. But there is also a sense that China feels they are becoming more of the dominant player and that history is on their side and they will prevail. And that by 2049, which is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, China will be the dominant industrial nation. So, the trend lines are very, very negative.
The Cipher Brief: Given rising tensions, do you think it's inevitable that we will see some type of conflict in the near-term involving China?
Ambassador DeTrani: I think what's becoming more inevitable is that we're sliding into a cold war relationship with China, unfortunately. Hopefully we can prevent that. But I think if we continue to move, we - the corporate we – it’s the world and China, not just the United States. As we move in that direction, the possibility increases of stumbling into conflict, especially in places like the South China Sea, or even the East China Sea, or in Taiwan. If ‘one country, two systems’ is no longer operative, what does that say to Taiwan? That's a significant message if you are in Taiwan. Would China be foolhardy to do something that would require a reaction from countries like the United States? I think the possibility is becoming greater, that we could slip into, not only a cold war relationship, but into some form of a local conflict, which could be devastating.
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