While considerable attention has been devoted to combating the Islamic State (ISIS) in Iraq and Syria, Libya has often been referred to as the next frontier in the battle against the terrorist group.
Plagued by unrest since the overthrow of dictator Muammar Gadhafi in 2011, Libya’s lawless environment has paved the way for extremist groups, such as ISIS, to freely pursue their radical agendas.
Much of this chaos is a product of the country’s failure to achieve political order in the transition period following Gadhafi’s ousting. The country’s June 2014 elections were supposed to establish a permanent, democratically elected government but instead resulted in a split that gave way to the formation of two competing governments. Today, the internationally recognized House of Representatives is based in Tobruk, in Eastern Libya, and an Islamist-backed government remains in control of Tripoli, in Western Libya.
These two rival governments continue to vie for political control over Libya.
In recent months, the United Nations has taken steps to resolve this political stalemate. A UN-brokered accord was approved by the UN Security Council in December. The agreement calls for the establishment of a new 17-member government, to serve as Libya’s official legislative and representative body, headed by Prime Minister designate Fayez el-Sarraj. As part of the process, a list of potential government members was submitted to Libya’s House of Representatives in Tobruk for approval.
However, while the House of Representatives agreed to the framework outlined by the UN accord, it rejected the list of unity government members and asked the Presidential Council provide a new list within 10 days of January 25.
With the situation on the ground murky at best, instability has opened the door for terrorist groups in Libya, primarily ISIS, to operate unperturbed.
According to Haim Malka, Deputy Director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, “Libya is ISIS’ most important base outside of the Levant, and it is attracting fighters from throughout North and Sub-Saharan Africa.”
ISIS has maintained a presence in Libya for nearly as long as it has been in Iraq and Syria. Perhaps its most notable, heinous act was the beheading of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians in the Libyan city of Sirte last February.
This month, ISIS has started to branch out, centering its attacks on Libya’s oil sector. The raids have crippled the nation’s oil industry. Libya’s daily oil production reportedly has fallen to a low of 400 thousand barrels, significantly down from its high of 1.6 million barrels per day in 2011.
The North Africa experts that The Cipher Brief reached out to agreed that ISIS’s strategy is focused on attempting to destroy Libya’s oil sector rather than taking control of it. Unlike Syria and Iraq, Geoff Porter and John Hamilton write, it is difficult to export oil out of Libya to nearby markets without a substantial transportation infrastructure. If ISIS cannot profit from Libya’s oil, “its strategy, therefore, is one of weakening what remains of the state by denying it resources and revenue,” Hamilton said.
As ISIS has ramped up its activity in Libya, so too have calls for international intervention. “It’s fair to say that we’re looking to take decisive military action against ISIL (ISIS) in conjunction with the political process [in Libya],” said U.S. General Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, last Friday.
This sentiment was echoed by Germany’s Defense Minister Ursula Von der Leyen, who stated, “[Libya’s new government] will rapidly require assistance to impose law and order in this massive state and at the same time to combat Islamist terrorism. Germany will not be able to escape the responsibility of making a contribution there.”
As the government standoff hampers Libya’s political direction and extremists groups target Libya’s economic lifeline, support for the UN-backed accord will be critical. The path ahead in Libya is long and arduous, which is why the international community must continue to press for a unity government that can represent the Libyan people and provide the security that the country needs.
Bennett Seftel is the Deputy Director of Editorial at The Cipher Brief.
