In this report, we feature insight from Cipher Brief Experts Norman T. Roule, who served as the National Intelligence Manager for Iran for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Former Senior CIA Officer Steven Hall and Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, former envoy for Six-Party Talks with North Korea.
Brought to you in partnership with the University of Mississippi’s Center for Intelligence and Security Studies and our private sector partner, Primer AI.
The Middle East and North Africa
The Trend Line: The Middle East saw continued violence this quarter as Iranian proxies and Islamist extremist continued campaigns in Israel, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. As the United States continues tightening economic sanctions on Iran, it is likely that democratic solutions will become more difficult. To disrupt Iran’s regional security in the Middle East, the United States is attempting to cut Iran’s oil exports to zero, take away its resources, and force stringent limitations on its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The seizure of an Iranian tanker in Gibraltar by the United Kingdom created a rift between the European Union and the United States, which is making it more complicated to reach a universal agreement on how to handle Iran. In Israel, the Lebanese government and Hezbollah accused Tel-Aviv of multiple drone strikes, as tensions between the Israelis and Lebanese-backed militias persist. Furthermore, the Yemeni civil war played a crucial role in the region this quarter; most notably, Iran is suspected of striking the Kingdom’s Aramco oil facility, which refines 5% of the world’s oil supply. The attack prompted a peace arrangement between the Iranian-backed Houthis and Riyadh; however, the Yemeni faction warned Saudi and Western leaders of further Iranian violence.
Iran: Tensions with the United States Rise
- July 4: The UK seized Iran’s Adrian Darya 1 tanker in Gibraltar, reportedly carrying 2.1 million barrels of oil to Syria. The destination was changed several times however officials deny having “received a request for the vessel to dock.” Iran denied allegations saying the oil was “sold to a private company” and that the buyer “sets the sale destination.” Associated Press France 24 The New York Times
- August 30: U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on the Iranian tanker for “malign activities and propagate terrorism.” Gibraltar denied the United States’ request to seize the tanker and failed to convince the captain to divert to a U.S. friendly port. France 24 The New York Times The Washington Post
- August 15: Gibraltar released the tanker after receiving written assurances that the oil would not be sold to Syria. Gilbert Licudi, the British maritime minister said the vessel was released “in good faith” although they did not know “for a fact” the ship’s intentions. France 24 The Guardian
- September 10: Satellite images showed Adrian near the coast of Syria after its GPS went dark. Three anonymous Iranian informants said Adrian “offloaded the cargo ship to vessels near Syria during cloudy weather to obscure detection.” Iran stated that the tanker “unloaded its cargo” without providing further details. Associated Press France 24 Reuters The New York Times The Washington Post
- September 30: Managing Iran’s Actions to Avoid Collapse of Global Economy Concerns about the global economy rise after drone attack on Saudi oil facility. The Cipher Brief
- October 30: Iran: U.S. Imposes Further Sanctions on Iran. The U.S. Treasury Department announced that six Gulf countries agreed to join sanctions against Iran. The sanctions target 25 corporations, banks, and individuals with ties to Iranian proxies. “The president couldn’t be more clear that we are executing a maximum pressure campaign on Iran … This is about stopping a bad actor,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said. France 24 Reuters The Wall Street Journal
- October 30: Iraq: Quds Force Commander Visited Baghdad. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qassim Soleimani traveled to Iraq the day after protests began earlier this month surprising Iraqi officials. “We in Iran know how to deal with protests,” Soleimani reportedly said. Soleimani’s trip displays Iran’s concern over the protests which included calls for Iran to stop meddling in Iraq. “Iran does not want to lose these gains. So, it has tried to work through its parties to contain the protests in a very Iranian way,” an Iraq security analyst said. Gulf News The Times of Israel The Washington Post
Syria: A dramatic shift in a fragile balance of power
- October 23: Syria: WTF do we do now? President Trump announced that the U.S. had brokered a permanent ceasefire in northeast Syria as he also announced that he would be lifting sanctions that were imposed after Turkey launched a military offensive into Syria in early October. A day earlier, however, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia would participate in joint patrols with Turkey to enforce the ceasefire, causing confusion and concern that this isn’t much of a deal at all for U.S. interests in the region. President Trump, meanwhile, welcomed what he referred to as Russia’s ‘help’. The Cipher Brief
- October 28: Baghdadi Raid Yields Valuable Intelligence. Pentagon officials said the military was able to gather valuable intelligence and took two ISIS fighters prisoner in the raid that killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The two prisoners have been taken to Iraq for questioning. Delta Force commandos searched the area for two hours after the raid where they found the documents and prisoners. The operation also killed ISIS spokesman Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir. The New York Times The Wall Street Journal
- October 28: The Regional Impact of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s Death The Cipher Brief
Lebanon Government in Turmoil as Unrest Rises
- October 29: Prime Minister Resigns Amid National Crisis. Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri resigned after being unable to quell protests against the government. “I have reached a dead end, and we need a big shock to counter this crisis … My call to all the Lebanese is to prioritize the interest of Lebanon, the safety of Lebanon, the protection of civil peace, and the prevention of economic collapse before everything else,” said Hariri. The protests have been ongoing for 13 days. Al Jazeera Reuters The Washington Post
Israel: Growing Tensions with Lebanon Amid Missile Strikes and Drone Attacks
- August 25: Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri said an attack by two Israeli drones amount to an open attack on the country's sovereignty. "The new aggression … constitutes a threat to regional stability and an attempt to push the situation towards further tension," he said in a statement. Al Jazeera The New York Times
- September 1: The Lebanese Shia Muslim militant group Hezbollah fired several anti-tank rockets into northern Israel in retaliation for a reported Israeli drone attack in Beirut the previous week. Israel says there were no casualties in the attack, and says it responded with artillery strikes on nearby Hezbollah positions. BBC News CNN
- September 10: Hezbollah announced that its fighters had downed and captured an Israeli drone in south Lebanon after a flare-up at the border with Israel the previous week. “Despite all the threats and intimidation, today we are affirming the balance of power and reinforcing the deterrent force that protects our country,” Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said in a televised speech. Reuters The Guardian
- September 19: A Lebanese government investigation blamed Israel for a pair of drones that crashed in Beirut on August 25, saying the devices were flown on an attack mission and one was armed with 10 pounds of explosive. The Times of Israel The Washington Post
- October 31: Hezbollah Fires Anti-Aircraft Missile Towards IDF Drone Jerusalem Post
Yemen: Civil War Developments and Saudi Tensions
- August 7: Clashes break out again between the separatists and pro-government forces in Aden. Al Jazeera
- August 10: The separatists gained ground across the city, saying they have seized the presidential palace. The government accused the UAE of backing a "coup,” while the UN said 40 people were killed and 260 wounded in the four days of fighting. Bloomberg France 24
- September 14: The Houthi Rebels claimed responsibility for the strike on Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil facility which temporarily took out half of its oil production capacity. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused Iran of being behind this “unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply.” Al Jazeera The Guardian The New York Times
- September 20: Mahdi al-Mashta, head of the Houthi’s supreme political council, announced that the rebels will stop aiming missile and drone attacks at Saudi Arabia. Mahdi stated that they are waiting on a “positive response” from Saudi Arabia. Al Jazeera The Washington Post
- October 26: A preliminary deal between Yemen’s Saudi-backed government and southern separatists has been reached that aims to end a power struggle in Aden. The deal, expected to be announced in days, will see the separatists included in a new technocrat cabinet and both sides’ armed factions placed under government control, sources said. Reuters
- October 30: The Death Toll in Yemen reaches 100,000 people. The Guardian
Norman T. Roule, Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, ODNI
The nature of conflict in the Middle East changed during this quarter with Iran’s increasingly open and direct attacks on its neighbors as well as regional energy targets capable of impacting economies throughout the world. Several governments have identified Iran as being behind the missile and drone attacks against Saudi oil facilities which refine 5% of the world’s oil supply. At the same time, the United States continues to tighten an already-unprecedented sanctions regime against Tehran. Diplomatic solutions appear increasingly unlikely. Europe continues to focus on identifying enticements which can evade U.S. sanctions while simultaneously keeping Iran in the nuclear deal. However, European unity on Iran has been shaken by the seizure of an Iranian tanker off Gibraltar for violating Syria-related sanctions and Tehran’s subsequent seizure of a British vessel. In Israel, the Lebanese government and Hezbollah accused Tel-Aviv of multiple drone strikes, as tensions between the Israelis and Lebanese-backed militias persist.
Sub-Saharan Africa
The Trend Line: Sub-Sharan Africa witnessed extremist violence in Burkina Faso, a re-surging Ebola outbreak in the Congo, and political changes in Sudan. Violence in Burkina Faso continued as jihadists groups continued attacks on the northern districts in the region. In September, West African leaders met in Burkina Faso to declare a $1 billion plan to counter the rise of extremists in the northern districts of Burkina Faso. Ebola has continued to ravage the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the outbreak has so far infected 3,000 and killed 2,000 people. Foreign donors have provided more than $150 million in funding to the Ebola response over the past year, but the United Nations says hundreds of millions more are needed. In Sudan, after a military coup in April ousted longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir, the Transitional Military Council struggled to reach an accord with the protesters that effectively ended the previous regime. The last few months have seen violent suppression of protesters, tense transition negotiations, and the formation of a new transitional council run jointly between the military and civilian opposition.
Burkina Faso: Extremism Violence Continues to Rise
- July 11: Burkina Faso’s parliament extended a state of emergency imposed in provinces grappling with jihadist violence by six months. The state of emergency applies to 14 provinces lying within seven of the country’s 13 administrative regions. The state of emergency gives additional powers to the security forces to carry out searches of homes and to restrict freedom of movement and assembly. North Africa Journal
- July 27: Around 20 armed jihadists raided the village of Diblou in Burkina Faso’s north, killing 15 people and burning village shops. These attacks come a month after 19 people were killed in the district of Arbinda. VOA News
- August 20: At least 24 soldiers were killed in an attack on a military base in Koutougou in Soum province. The attackers used heavy weapons, including rockets, to fire at several installations, transport, and weaponry. Reuters VOA News
- September 9: Extremists carried out two attacks in Burkina Faso killing a total of 29 people, a food convoy and a transport truck were attacked. Al Jazeera Associated Press VOA News
- September 15: West African leaders meeting in Burkina Faso have announced a one-billion-dollar plan to combat rising insecurity in the Sahel region. The money would help reinforce the military operations of the countries involved - and those of the joint military operations in the region. Africa News Deutsche Welle France 24
Democratic Republic of Congo: Ebola Outbreak
- July 16: Cases of Ebola began appearing in Goma, a major city on the Rwandan border of the Congo. The Washington Post
- July 17: The World Health Organization declared the Congo’s Ebola outbreak is an international health emergency. National Public Radio
- August 19: Confirmed a new case of Ebola in the remote, militia-controlled territory of Walikale appeared, hundreds of miles away from the location of previous cases. Daily Nigerian
- August 30: A Congolese girl fleeing the Congo dies of Ebola in Uganda. Associated Press
- September 14: A former Congolese health minister was taken into custody over alleged mismanagement of funds for the country’s response to the Ebola epidemic. The New York Times
- The World Health Organization (WHO) accuses Tanzania of refusing to share information on suspected Ebola cases in the country. VOA News The Washington Post
Sudan: Coup Moves from Military Control to Shared Transitional Rule
- August 17: Civilian and military leaders agree to form a transitional “sovereign council” until elections are held in 2020. The Washington Post
- September 8: The sovereign council declared a state of emergency in the city of Port Sudan. The declaration followed tribal clashes that killed 16 people, resulting in a reconciliation deal after a member of Sudan’s new Sovereign Council threatened to expel both sides from the country if they refused to commit to reconciliation. NBC News
- September 5: Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok announced the formation of an 18-member cabinet as part of the three-year power sharing agreement. Al Jazeera
- September 17: France announced 60 million euros in aid for Sudan’s transitional government. Reuters
- October 30: South Sudan's government, led by President Kiir is failing to push through a peace deal, Riek Machar, the country's main opposition leader has said. Machar is calling for a six-month delay in the formation of a unity administration. Al Jazeera
Western Europe
The Trend Line: Western Europe experienced two major political shakeups with a new coalition government forming in Italy and Brexit concerns looming in the United Kingdom. In Italy, former Interior Minister Matteo Salvini attempted a power grab in the Italian government after he ended his League party’s alliance with the Five Star Movement and attempted to induce snap elections. Successfully forming a new coalition with the Democratic Party, Salvini was ousted and the two parties implemented their own administration. In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Boris Johnson and British lawmakers continued to be at odds over the option of a no-deal Brexit if agreements weren’t reached. As the October 31 deadline approaches, Johnson attempted to suspend Parliament, however, Britain’s Supreme Court deemed this action illegal on September 24, leading to more uncertainties revolving around the issue of European Union departure. Three weeks later, an apparent deal and then another pushback.
Italy: The Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party Form a New Coalition Government
- August 28: Talks to form a new government in Italy have resumed after populist and center-left leaders agreed that Giuseppe Conte should stay on as prime minister. The talks were halted when Five Star said it would not continue unless the PD "say yes to Conte.” BBC News The Independent The Guardian
- September 5: The Italian Democratic Party and The Five Star Movement joined forces and successfully ousted far-right leader Matteo Salvini. Giuseppe Conte has returned to the prime-ministership and his cabinet was sworn in including ten M5S ministers and nine DP ministers. The Independent Al-Jazeera
- September 10: Premier Conte wins second and final confidence vote in the Senate by a vote of 169 to votes to 133. After winning Conte said, “parliament has voted confidence in the government. A new start for Italy, a reforming season of relaunch and hope.” ANSA The Guardian
United Kingdom: The Brexit Push Carries On
- July 24: Boris Johnson became the new Prime Minister and committed to the October 31 Brexit deadline, refusing to rule out a no-deal Brexit. Al Jazeera
- August 23: French President Emmanuel Macron warned Johnson there was not enough time to wholly rewrite Britain’s Brexit deal before the October 31 deadline. Macron challenged Britain to come up with acceptable alternatives to the agreed safety net provision for the UK-Irish land border, further stating that Brexit is “not the choice of the European Union.” CNN Reuters
- August 28: The Queen approved Johnson’s plan for a suspension of Parliament. The suspension started September 13 and is planned to continue through October 14. CNN
- September 6: Parliament passed a law that forced Johnson to have a Brexit deal approved by Parliament before October 19. The law also made it illegal for Johnson to leave the EU without a deal. The New York Times
- September 9: Parliament rejected Johnson’s request for snap elections for the second time. Johnson wanted an election to occur on October 15 to achieve a Brexit deal before the October 19 deadline. BBC
- September 11: The Court of Session unanimously ruled that Johnson’s suspension of Parliament was illegal. The government appealed this decision, and a decision will be made by the Supreme Court in England. The Guardian
- September 24: Britain’s Supreme Court deemed Johnson’s suspension of Parliament illegal. Johnson said he “profoundly disagreed” with the ruling but would “respect” it. BBC News
- October 17: After an intense week of talks and with only two weeks left until Britain’s scheduled departure from the EU on Oct. 31, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson finally managed to get a deal. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker announced the deal with a tweet Thursday morning: “We have one! It’s a fair and balanced agreement for the EU and the UK and it is testament to our commitment.” The deal found a way to avoid a hard border between Ireland, an EU member, and the U.K.’s Northern Ireland while also providing a way forward for Britain’s orderly departure from the EU. Associated Press
- October 31: As Brexit deadline moves once again, many are left wondering what comes next. ABC News
Central and Eastern Europe
The Trend Line: Russia played the lead in Central and Eastern Europe this quarter, experiencing domestic protests while attempting to further legitimize diplomatic efforts in Ukraine and Turkey. Russian citizens protested for several weeks leading up to the Moscow City Duma elections on September 8, demanding legitimate elections and the release of political prisoners. In response, Russian authorities detained thousands of demonstrators and increased domestic disinformation operations. With Turkey, Russia completed the sale of the S-400 air defense system to Ankara in July. Turkey’s purchase of the S-400 prompted ridicule from the United States and NATO, and ultimately led to Washington terminating Turkey’s F-35 program. With the Crimea dispute continuing, Moscow and Kiev attempted to normalize relations this quarter with Presidents Putin and Zelensky holding a telephone discussion and establishing a prisoner exchange. By the end of October, Ukranian and Russian-back separatist troops started vacating their positions in Zolote, Ukraine.
Russia: Democracy Protests Lead to Increase in Disinformation Operations
- Early July: Protests began after Moscow’s election committee blocked opposition candidates from running for the local Duma elections. Protestors numbered in the hundreds until July 20, when the government approved a demonstration led by prominent Kremlin critic Alexey Navalny. The Navalny-led protest was against the Kremlin regime as a whole and numbered around 22,000 demonstrators. Navalny was arrested shortly after. CNN The Guardian The New York Times RFE/RL
- August 2: Around 2,500 demonstrators were arrested. By August 10, an estimated 50,000 demonstrators took to the streets again in Moscow. Al Jazeera CBS News The Los Angeles Times
- September 9: The election resulted in United Russia losing 13 seats, taking the regime-backed party down to 25 out of 45 total seats in the Moscow Duma. Opposition leader Navalny declared a tactical victory for opposition, stating that the “Smart Voting” tactic was a great success. CNN Euronews
- October 2: Russia’s Asymmetric Threat. The U.S. issued new economic sanctions against seven individuals linked to a Russian Internet troll factory. The sanctions were announced with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo calling them a warning to foreigners seeking to interfere in U.S. elections. The U.S. Government also announced that is is bolstering its efforts to defend voting systems ahead of next year’s presidential vote. Moscow has effectively used a number of low-cost, asymmetric tactics against the U.S. in what national security leaders call an overall effort to sow chaos and instability in the country. Disinformation has been another favored tactic. The Cipher Brief
- Oct 28: Bulgaria: Russian Spy Expelled. The Bulgarian foreign ministry reported on Monday that the government had expelled a Russian diplomat accused of spying for Moscow. According to government statements, the diplomat had been conducting espionage for at least a year and had attempted to gather classified information taken from the EU, NATO, and the Bulgarian state. The alleged spy had held “conspiratorial” meetings with “a senior official with a clearance for classified information.” Bulgaria reportedly demanded his recall on Friday. The Russian Foreign Ministry has not commented on the matter. Balkan Insight Reuters
- Oct 28: Georgia: Cyber Attack Hits Thousands of Websites. Georgia suffered its largest cyberattack since 2008 on Monday. The attack affected over 2,000 websites to include government officials and media. The hackers took the sites and displayed a photo of Mikheil Saakashvili, the former president, with the words “I’ll be back.” This was the largest cyberattack since Russia launched an operation against Georgia in 2008 before briefly going to war. BBC France 24 The Washington Post
- October 29: Ukraine: Troops Withdrawing from Eastern Ukraine. Ukranian and Russian-back separatist troops have started vacating their positions in Zolote, Ukraine. "The separation of forces in Zolote is happening right now," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko said. The withdrawal comes as part of an agreement to end the conflict was agreed to by Russia and Ukraine. BBC DW France 24 VOA News
- October 30: Russia test-fires missile from new nuclear-powered submarine. BBC
- October 31: Analysis: Putin’s Perfect Cover The Cipher Brief
Turkey: Ankara Purchases Russian S-400 Jets Despite U.S. and NATO Warnings
- July 1: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the first delivery of the Russian S-400 missile defense system would take place within 10 days. The United States says the S-400s will compromise its Lockheed Martin Corp F-35 fighter jets, of which Turkey is a producer and buyer. The Jerusalem Post
- July 12: The first shipment of the Russian-made S-400 air defense missile system landed in Ankara, in a move that sets up a potential showdown between Turkey and the United States. Al Jazeera CNN Reuters
- July 17: The United States says it is removing Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet program, a move long threatened and expected after Ankara began accepting delivery of an advanced Russian missile defense system last week. Turkey’s foreign ministry responded stating the move was unfair and could affect relations between the two nations. BBC News Deutsche Welle Reuters
- September 15: Turkey's defense ministry announced the delivery of a second battery of Russian S-400 missile defense systems had been completed. The initial parts of the system were delivered to Ankara in July despite warnings of possible U.S. sanctions. The systems are expected to be active by April 2020. Al Jazeera The Jerusalem Post RFE/RL
Ukraine: Kiev and Moscow Strive to Normalize Relations, Tension Persists
- July 1: The U.S. chargé d'affaires in Keiv condemned Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine after reports of deadly attacks on medical personnel and called on Moscow and the “forces it backs” to end the fighting “immediately.”RFE/RL
- July 11: President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held their first telephone call and discussed the conflict in eastern Ukraine as well as swapping prisoners. Bloomberg RFE/RL Reuters
- July 25: Ukraine detained a Russian tanker over its alleged role in a confrontation that led to Moscow's seizure of three Ukrainian vessels last November. Ukraine said that the tanker was used in a Russian operation to block Ukrainian vessels from sailing through the Kerch Strait between the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov on November 25 last year. Al Jazeera Newsweek The New York Times
- September 7: Russia and Ukraine exchanged 35 prisoners. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the exchange as the first step towards ending the war in Ukraine's east and returning territory annexed by Moscow. BBC News CNN Deutsche Welle
- September 21: The Normandy-format summit between Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France — aimed at ending the war in eastern Ukraine—seems increasingly unlikely to happen. A Paris summit would be the first such meeting since October 2016. Deutsche Welle
Steven Hall, Former Senior CIA Officer
After he laid the groundwork in 2015 and 2016, Vladimir Putin continues to begin undermining Western democracies to include ours here in the United States. The splits that he has created has allowed him to advance very successfully Russia's geopolitical goals. Everybody seems so caught up with domestic issues, whether it's Donald Trump or within the UK, with Brexit, people are taking their eye off the ball and in the meantime, Russia's capitalizing by expanding its influence in the region and globally. Putin is taking advantage of a situation that he set in motion himself and it's worked out very well for him.
Asia
The Trend Line: Asia has seen continued discord in Afghanistan as U.S -Taliban peace ended unresolved. Hong Kong and Kashmir entered the forefront of American national security as democracy protests aggravated mainland China and New Delhi suspended Kashmir’s special administrative status. In Afghanistan, after almost a year of talks between the United States and the Taliban, peace talks were canceled after a Taliban claimed attack killed an American soldier. In China, Hong Kong has seen months of mass protests in response to an extradition bill, which was formally withdrawn in early September. The disputed region of Kashmir once again became a source of friction between India and Pakistan when in August, Indian parliament revoked Article 370, which granted the region a special semi-autonomous status. The United States and North Korea continued its volatile relationship while trying to work out denuclearization talks. Meanwhile, North Korea conducted multiple missile tests.
Afghanistan: U.S. – Taliban Peace Talks Come to a Close
- September 1: U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad flew to Kabul to brief the Afghan government on the peace deal being negotiated between the United States and the Taliban. Khalilzad said the two sides were near an agreement. The Afghan government had not been a part of the negotiations with Taliban calling the Kabul government illegitimate. NBC News The Washington Post
- September 7: President Trump announced that he canceled a secret meeting to be held with Taliban and Afghan government leaders after a Taliban attack in Kabul that killed a U.S. soldier. CNN The New York Times The Washington Post
China: Hong Kong protests led to withdrawal of extradition bill, but they didn’t stop there
- June 9: The first mass protest consisted of almost one million people peacefully rallying; however, on June 12, several clashes between police and protesters broke out leading Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam to indefinitely delay the extradition bill on June 15. The extradition bill would have allowed citizens of Hong Kong to be extradited to mainland China to face trial. BBC News
- August 12: Protests caused Hong Kong’s international airport to close canceling over 150 flights. In response, China’s government deployed the People’s armed police to Shenzen, a city near Hong Kong. National Public Radio The New York Times The Wall Street Journal
- September 4: Lam withdrew the extradition bill, although the other demands of the protestors had not been met. The primary demands included free elections, inquiry into police conduct, changing the term “rioters” to protesters, and to stop the prosecution of arrested protesters. CNN South China Morning Post
India: Parliament Removes Kashmir and Jammu Special Status
- August 4: Indian parliament removes the special status of Kashmir and Jammu by revoking Article 370. BBC News CBS News CNN
- August 4: Delhi implemented a 100% communication blackout to lower the chance of organized protest within Kashmir and Jammu. BBC News Haaretz
- August 7: Pakistan announced it would cut formal trade, recall its diplomats, and lower overall diplomatic ties with India. ABC News Bloomberg CNBC News
- August 15: China announced it would back Pakistan’s request for the U.N. Security Council to discuss India’s decision to revoke the special status of Jammu and Kashmir. South China Morning Post
North Korea: Missile tests continue amid efforts to resume talks
- July 29: U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said he hoped the two countries could resume working level talks “very soon.” Reuters
- August 10: North Korea fired two missiles with analysts assessing that the missiles are “of a type unveiled for the first time.” The New York Times
- August 29: Japan held bilateral talks with North Korea saying it could not depend on the United States to fully represent its position. South China Morning Post
- September 10: North Korea’s Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui said North Korea is ready to hold talks with the United States changes its approach. Hours after indicating openness to renew talks, North Korea fired two missiles. It was the eighth time North Korea has tested ballistic missiles or other projectiles since late July. CBS News The New York Times The Washington Post The Wall Street Journal
- September 13: The U.S. Treasury announced sanctions on three North Korean cyber groups it said were involved in the “WannaCry” ransomware attacks and hacking of international banks and customer accounts. The Wall Street Journal The Washington Post
- September 22: North Korea’s chief nuclear negotiator Kim Myong Gil call President Trump’s call or a “new method” in negotiations a “wise political decision. The Japan Times The Korea Herald
- September 24: Kim Jong Un could meet again with President Donald Trump and even visit South Korea in November if expected talks between Pyongyang and Washington make progress on eliminating North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. The New York Times
- October 23: A Quiet Agreement Between China and South Korea on Denuclearization The Cipher Brief
- October 31: North Korea test fires two missiles amid stalled denuclearization talks. Fox News
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, Former Envoy to Six-Party Talks with North Korea
Despite summits between President Donald Trump and Chairman Kim Jung Un, North Korea continued to launch more sophisticated short-range ballistic missiles and submarine launched ballistic missiles, while fabricating more nuclear weapons, with the expectation that working level negotiations would halt this escalation and usher in a denuclearization process. According to North Korea, the long-anticipated working level meeting on October 5, 2019 was a failure, stating that North Korea has no desire to engage in "sickening negotiations" with the U.S.
The Americas
The Trend Line: Tension epitomized the Americas with the Venezuelan Crisis continuing along with Amazonian wildfires, a resurgence of the FARC in Colombia, and economic woes related to unexpected election results in Argentina. In Argentina, opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez defeated incumbent Mauricio Macri by 16 percentage points in Argentina’s August 11 presidential primary; as a result, Buenos Aires’s stock market crashed 35%, while the Argentine peso fell 25% to the dollar, over fears of a return to command economics under a Fernandez presidency. In Brazil, amid growing international attention concerning the Bolsonaro administration’s handling of environmental policy, the National Institute for Space Research on August 21 reported the Amazon is experiencing an 84% annualized increase in wildfires. In response to the report, President Bolsonaro has mobilized the military and accepted international aid from Britain and Canada in an effort to control the raging fires. Tensions in Colombia rose as former FARC Commanders Jesus Santrich and Ivan Marquez appeared in an online video in which the two vowed to renew the organization’s battle against the government, claiming the Duque administration has failed to uphold their end of the deal. Furthermore, Venezuela’s socioeconomic collapse continued with the Trump administration retaining pressure on the Maduro Regime through multiple sanctions.
Argentina: Upcoming Presidential Election Leads to Economic Concerns
- August 11: Incumbent President Mauricio Macri lost the nation’s primary election which many viewed as a referendum on Macri’s harsh economic reform. The surprise results lead to a 35% drop in the nation’s main stock market and a currency devaluation of 25% to the dollar. CNBC News CNN The New York Times
- August 14: President Macri said he will cut income taxes for workers and increase subsidies for social services following two days of economic turmoil triggered by the election results. Al Jazeera BBC News Deutsche Welle France 24
- September 2: The Argentine government imposed currency controls intended to rein in the financial crisis that damaged the country's standing with investors, reduced currency reserves, and drove more people towards poverty. Al Jazeera CNN The New York Times
Brazil: Amazonian Wildfires Lead to Political Turmoil for Bolsonaro
- August 11: Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro said his country has no need for German aid aimed at helping protect the Amazonian forest, after Berlin said it would suspend some payments because of surging deforestation. Deutsche Welle France 24
- August 21: the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research said its satellite data shows an 84% increase in Amazonian wildfires on the same period as last year. BBC News CNN The Washington Post
- August 24: Bolsonaro mobilized the military to assist in fighting the Amazon wildfires in response to international condemnation and EU threats of trade retaliation. Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle National Public Radio
- August 27: Bolsonaro rejected a $20 million G-7 aid package due to a diplomatic row with French President Emmanuel Macron. Brazil ultimately accepted separate donations from Britain and Canada who pledged $12 million and $11 million respectively. Al Jazeera CNN The New York Times
- September 3: Bolsonaro announced he would miss a planned United Nations summit on the wildfires due to a scheduled surgery. A spokesman said Brazil might send a representative in his place or ask for the summit to be postponed. Associated Press BBC News The Hill
Colombia: FARC Dissidents Declare End to Peace Progress, Plan to Take Up Arms Against Government
- June 30: Former FARC Commander Jesus Santrich escaped an ex-combatant reintegration camp. Santrich was set to hold one of the ten congressional seats promised to the guerrilla group in the peace deal. The Economist France 24
- July 10: Colombia’s Supreme Court issued an arrest warrant for Santrich who allegedly help smuggled large amounts of cocaine into the United States during his time in the FARC. BBC News
- July 28: Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro announced that missing FARC leaders are “welcome in Venezuela,” increasing suspicion that Santrich had fled to the neighboring country under the protection of the Maduro Regime. Reuters
- August 28: Jesus Santrich, alongside former senior FARC commander Ivan Marquez, appeared in an online video in which they said the group will again take up arms against the government with other guerrillas who have distanced themselves from a peace accord signed with the government. The former commanders insisted the government had not upheld their end of the agreement. BBC News Deutsche Welle France 24 The Hill
Venezuela: United States Continues Sanctions as Norway Mediates Opposition-Regime Dialogue
- July 17: The United States Treasury placed four senior Venezuelan military intelligence officials on its sanctions blacklist stating, “This action follows the arrest, physical abuse, and death of Venezuelan Navy Captain Rafael Acosta Arevalo.” France 24
- July 19: Norway’s Foreign Ministry announced talks between the Maduro Regime and opposition resumed in Barbados. “The representatives of the central political actors in Venezuela are continuing the negotiations initiated in Oslo with the purpose of working continuously and as efficiently as possible,” the ministry stated. Reuters
- July 25: The Trump Administration issued sanctions on 10 individuals and 13 groups in a food subsidy scheme in which regime elites profited from overvalued contracts associated with the country’s food subsidy program. ABC News Al Jazeera The New York Times
- August 5: The United States issued a full economic embargo on Venezuela with President Trump signing an executive order imposing a harsh, Cuba-style economic embargo on the country. In a letter to Congress, Trump said the measure was necessary in light of Maduro’s “continued usurpation of power” and ongoing human rights abuses in the South American nation. The Hill Miami Herald The New York Times
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