Meanwhile, a Swedish diplomat is putting a positive spin on talks between the U.S. and North Korea over the denuclearization issue earlier this month, despite the fact that North Korean officials complained that the U.S. was bringing no new ideas to the table.
Swedish Special Envoy Kent Harstedt, who acted as an intermediary, said the uninterrupted talks lasted “many hours” and said that he was “cautiously optimistic” that talks would continue.
Cipher Brief expert Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, served as former Special Envoy for Six Party Talks with North Korea, and he knows a thing or two about patterns of behavior that he’s seen emerge since talks resumed with the U.S. We asked him what a thaw in relations and a joint effort between China and South Korea over denuclearization could mean.
The Cipher Brief: The burning questions seems to be, is the U.S. going to get sidelined here when it comes to denuclearization, and is it a good thing that China and South Korea are reviving their commitment to work together?
DeTrani: I worked with China and South Korea, for the Six Party Talks, and I think we had a good product then. Unfortunately, it eventually failed in 2009, when North Korea refused to sign a verification protocol that would permit monitors to leave Nyongbyon and visit non- declared suspect sites.
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, Former Special Envoy for Six Party Talks with North Korea
In my personal view, any effort now between China and South Korea to try to establish a separate path or a separate approach to North Korea on denuclearization would be unfortunate at this time. The focus now is the U.S. dialogue with North Korea on denuclearization, and this is something that North Korea wants. They've always made it clear that the Six body process is dead. They want a dialogue with the United States and this is what we have.
We’ve had two summits between President Trump and Kim Jong Un. We had a DMZ meeting. We had our first working group meeting between Stephen Biegun and Kim Myong Gil on October 5th of this year. Now there needs to be further working-level negotiations so that we can work on complete verifiable denuclearization, but there also needs to be a process towards a peace treaty, normalization of relations, economic assistance and the lifting of sanctions. That's all going to be done at the working group level meetings between our lead representative and North Korea's lead representative.
Any effort now to divert North Korea's focus from using that channel would be unfortunate, and it would be counterproductive. What China needs to continue to do is to implement the sanctions that the U.N. Security Council imposed on North Korea for their nuclear tests and missile launches. We need to continue to work closely with South Korea on our joint efforts, but also the implementation of the sanctions, and coordinate both with China and South Korea as we're doing so.
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, Former Special Envoy for Six Party Talks with North Korea
But – and this is important - if there is a hint to North Korea that there is another path to a negotiations with China and South Korea on denuclearization, then they could possibly seize on that to take the focus away from the U.S.’ insistence on complete verifiable denuclearization, and maybe find movement in a different direction, like a nuclear freeze.
North Korea has been pursuing that path, and certainly China has been talking about it, as has Russia, while the U.S. goal has always been a comprehensive agreement. So, in my personal view, the focus has to continue to be on the U.S. dialogue with North Korea and the progress that has been made at least to date with the Singapore joint statement, and the first working level negotiations. Any effort between China and South Korea to possibly offer North Korea a separate dialogue would be counter-productive, and I think it would lead to the possibility that we could eventually come to a resolution of these issues with North Korea.
I do see China and South Korea working together to ensure that the sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council are implemented, because eventually, when we talk about a peace treaty, it's going to be not only the U.S. and North Korea but it's also going to be China and South Korea as well. So, there is a value there in talking to South Korea for an eventual peace treaty to end the Korean war. The best path for China would be the dialogue on a peace treaty, and a dialogue on implementing the sanctions until we get some progress, and an agreement between the U.S. and North Korea on a path towards complete verifiable denuclearization, and the eventual lifting some of these sanctions.
The Cipher Brief: Are you at all concerned, about efforts by other countries to exploit U.S. decisions we’ve seen in other places, like Syria, for their own benefit by "You can't trust the United States. They're not a reliable ally"? Do you worry that's extending further east and might be causing long-time U.S. allies like South Korea, to second guess their commitment to the U.S.’ approach to North Korea and that might be driving a closer China-South Korea alliance?
DeTrani: I could believe that South Korea, and maybe others could be saying, "Well, you know, is the U.S. fickle? Is the U.S. truly committed?" Are we committed with the military presence (like 28,500 troops) and with the extended nuclear deterrence commitments we've made to South Korea? That nuclear umbrella is very important to South Korea. So yes, I do think there are some in South Korea, who are reading the news about Syria and the Kurds, and saying, "You know, maybe we have to be a little more self-reliant. Maybe we need to have a more meaningful dialogue with China, being we live in this neighborhood, and we're going to have to live with the Chinese."
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