The Himalayan mountain range separates the world’s two most populous states, India and China, whose rapidly expanding economies are instrumental in the ongoing shift of the global balance of power towards the East. India and China have many things in common: both are developing Asian countries struggling to compete in a global economy amidst serious pollution concerns as they attempt to govern enormous and diverse populations. But for all their similarities, India and China have a contentious relationship.
Chinese and Indian relations have long been characterized by border disputes along the Himalayans, with numerous incursions by both sides and a few military skirmishes. Both have steadily increased their military presence along the border areas, closely watching the other for any potential border incursions. India has encouraged increased settlement on its side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
While China and India seek to grow closer through increased trade and cooperation, these border disputes remain at the core of the divide within their relationship—Tibet being the foremost issue. Tibet has served as a geographical buffer between the two neighbors, as Beijing laid claim to the region in the 1950s. While technically a part of China, Tibet is a Semi Autonomous Region, so this province, known for its conflict with the PRC, is considered by many nations to be a part of China in name only. Should conflict break out over Tibet, India has a limited capacity to respond.
China and India are currently competing for influence in South East Asia. While India’s trade with ASEAN countries has steadily increased, it is minor compared to that of its competitors. Indian politics are local and domestic, whereas Beijing focuses on foreign policy as a way to compensate for its domestic shortcomings, helping to build up Chinese foreign influence.
China’s close relationship with Pakistan has also been a major point of conflict between New Delhi and Beijing. India and Pakistan have fought four wars since their independence in 1947. The opportunity to balance against India has been the basis of the Sino-Pakistani relationship for decades. However, when Pakistani militants attacked an Indian air base this past weekend, China denounced the actions of its ally. Chinese Foreign Minister, Hua Chunying said in a press conference Monday, “India and Pakistan are important countries in South Asia. The improvement of relations between the two countries is of paramount importance to regional peace and stability. China hopes that India and Pakistan can enhance their cooperation and dialogue regardless of these disruptions.”
While Beijing’s announcement of disapproval may have come as a surprise, China has recently been attempting to engage India within global institutions, such as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) summit. With better communication between Beijing and New Delhi within these institutions, the potential for China and India to cooperate and find areas of mutual benefit will only increase. The increased communication would minimize the risk of misinterpretations, which could potentially lead to conflict.
A rift in Sino-Indian or Indo-Pakistani relations would likely evoke concern from the international community. All three nations are nuclear armed. Conflict between India and either of its neighbors has the potential for miscalculation that would be detrimental to global security and the international economy. Furthermore, the third player in this trilateral dynamic, whether it be Pakistan or China, would likely be drawn into the struggle.
A major reason for the U.S rebalance towards Asia involved the growing importance of China and India, the two most populous nations with increasing impact on the global economy. The rise of these developing countries poses a significant challenge for U.S. foreign policy. Maintaining stability across the Himalayan mountain range remains essential for global security as both India and China continue to simultaneously develop rapidly.
Alexandra Viers is an International Producer with The Cipher Brief.
