Russia, seemingly at will, ramps up the pressure in Ukraine. And it looks as if another uptick is underway. So far, the West has yet to show it has the resolve to end the Russian aggression.
At the annual Munich Security Conference in Germany this weekend, international monitors indicated there has been an upsurge in violence, with Russian backed separatists moving heavy munitions to the frontlines in Eastern Ukraine. The Secretary-General of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Lamberto Zannier, told Reuters, “We’ve seen cases of redeployment of heavy armaments closer to the contact line… multiple rocket launchers artillery being used.”
The West accuses Russian President Vladimir Putin of sending military forces and heavy equipment to eastern Ukraine along its border to assist the ethnically Russian separatists, but Moscow denies the accusation, claiming there are only “volunteers” helping the rebels.
The war of words between the Western allies and Russia played out at the Munich security forum. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warned of a new Cold War. “NATO’s policy with regard to Russia has remained unfriendly and opaque,” Medvedev told the conference. “One could go as far as to say that we have slid back to a new Cold War.” And he wondered, “Are we in 2016 or 1962?”
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg accused an “assertive” Russia of “destabilizing” European security, but he denied NATO seeks confrontation. “We don’t want a new Cold War,” Stoltenberg said. “At the same time our response has to be firm.”
Last week, NATO announced plans to rotate an additional 3,000 to 6,000 troops through eastern Europe, and the U.S. intends to up its commitment by increasing its funding fourfold to provide more equipment and an additional combat brigade to the effort.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry praised the resolve of the European partners to “stand up to Russia’s repeated aggression.” And he called on Russia to respond accordingly. “Russia has a simple choice: fully implement Minsk or continue to face economically damaging sanctions,” Kerry told the Munich forum.
This weekend, President Barack Obama called the Russian President to discuss the situation in both Syria and Ukraine. The White House issued a statement on Sunday: “The President urged combined Russian-separatist forces to fulfill their Minsk obligations, especially adhering to the ceasefire and ensuring that the (international monitors) has full access to all areas of eastern Ukraine, including the international border.”
The Minsk peace agreement signed a year ago called for an immediate ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weapons by both sides, humanitarian access to occupied areas, effective international monitoring, and local elections in the disputed regions followed by full control of the country by the Ukrainian government. The ceasefire is on shaky ground and little progress has been made on any of the other fronts.
The U.S. and its European partners imposed economic sanctions on Russia following Moscow’s intervention into the Ukraine conflict, which included providing support to the separatists in eastern Ukraine and annexing Crimea.
Since the hostilities began nearly two years ago, the United Nations reports that more than nine thousand people have been killed, 20-thousand wounded, and more than a million people have fled their homes in Ukraine.
Complicating the situation in Ukraine is the rampant corruption within the Kiev government, something President Petro Poroshenko vowed to bring under control but has met with little success. Corruption remains unchecked, leading to the resignation of the reform minded economics minister who complained that reform measures were being sabotaged. In a speech to the Ukraine Parliament in December, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden stressed that reform was imperative. “We understand how difficult some of the votes for reforms are, but they are critical for putting Ukraine back on the right path,” Biden said.
Furthermore, Poroshenko has been unable to deliver on his pledge to offer more autonomy to the disputed territories in the east along the Russian border.
Taras Kuzio, a Senior Research Associate at the Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies, told The Cipher Brief he blames Russian imperialism and the scourge of corruption in the Ukrainian government for the country’s continued woes following the so-called Euromaidan Revolution.
And former CIA official and member of The Cipher Brief network, Rob Dannenberg, sees little prospects for the West, which is too preoccupied with ISIS, Syria, and the refugee crisis, to “summon the political will” to take meaningful action to challenge Russia in Ukraine.
The prospects are also grim from the intelligence community standpoint. At the annual world threats hearing last week, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told senators,
“Sustained violence along the Line of Contact delineating the separatist-held areas will probably continue to complicate a political settlement, and the potential for escalation remains.” He added, “Moscow’s objectives in the Ukraine will probably remain unchanged, including maintaining long-term influence over Kiev and frustrating its attempts to integrate into Western institutions.
At the hearing, Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) referred to Russia’s “appetite growing with the eating in Syria,” a reference to Moscow’s military successes in support of the Assad regime in Syria. The same may be true with Ukraine.
Pam Benson is the Managing Editor for News at The Cipher Brief.
