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The Anti-ISIS Coalition Makes First Real Gains in Libya

The UN-backed Government of National Accord’s Misratan-led Bunyan Al Marsus operation room made significant gains against IS this week, advancing to within 30km Sirte. So far the operation has cost 72 lives — mostly Misratan fighters — and over 150 injured. However, while the operations room is directly established by the GNA, other nominally anti-GNA militias have joined the fight. This constitutes the formation of a nascent anti-ISIS coalition. One that is actually fighting together rather than merely ‘talking about fighting’ as had heretofore been the case. We can therefore now consider the Bunyan Marsus created by the Government of National Accord (GNA) as the coordinating nucleus for an anti-ISIS coalition. The room is led by Colonel Bashir Al Gadi a military commander from Misrata. In Arabic, Bunyan Marsus means “the steadfast wall,” which is a saying from a Hadith (saying of the prophet Mohammed) that states “the belief to the believer is like the Bunyan Al Marsus.”

Three conflict dynamics were evident this week: 1) Significant momentum is being gained by the GNA’s assault on ISIS held territory between Misrata and Sirte. This offensive is led by the GNA’s anti-ISIS Banyan Marsus Operations Room with support of militias from the old Libya Dawn alliance. 2) Haftar’s LNA has lost the momentum it had been building up steadily from February until the beginning of May. Coupled together, these two dynamics indicate that all scenarios in the future remain open, whether tending to a political compromise and unification of military forces under the GNA’s command into a genuine anti-ISIS coalition or the opposite, more fragmentation of both the LNA and the GNA militias. 3) The military and security support of international actors for the GNA is increasing.

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