South Asia’s critical transboundary waterways are facing unprecedented pressures as a result of rapidly increasing populations, high demand for natural resources, and the consequences of climate change. These challenges, combined with ineffective and wasteful governmental management, are intensifying water scarcity conditions and stoking tensions in an already volatile region.
The current situation is set to severely worsen unless collective action is taken, particularly by Pakistan and India. While both nations have made some progress in the areas of trade and energy, the necessary cooperation on water and climate concerns lag behind. Current geopolitical stressors and a historic rivalry have led the two countries to approach water and climate concerns from a firmly securitized vantage point and mark key hydrological data as secret and classified.
A securitized approach presents challenges on two fronts; it makes gathering accurate data difficult, and it cripples further regional cooperation. While South Asia may be regarded as the world’s most poorly integrated region, it is codependent for its water supply. Pakistan and India have made efforts in the past, committing to data and water sharing practices. The 1960 Indus Water Treaty assigned India control over the Beas, Sutlej, and Ravi rivers in the east. Pakistan was granted the same over the western rivers Chenab, Jhelum, and the Indus. Beyond that, the treaty called for cooperative visits and a regular exchange of information to ensure steady water supply for the subcontinent. The treaty remains in place despite three wars, but today the stringent practices it calls for are sporadic at best.
Both countries have a combined population nearing 1.6 billion, with a 1.4 percent average growth rate. Pakistan, inherently the more vulnerable state, is facing the possibility of being water scarce by 2025. It crossed the “water stress” line in 1990, yet no new mechanisms have been implemented towards groundwater storage or the construction of new dams. India’s exploding population has stressed its planned water resources, leaving rural areas dry and with no choice but to drill wells accessing groundwater, further depleting water supplies. These dangers are compounded by hotter temperatures and dramatically changing rain patterns, leaving the region predisposed to extreme floods, natural disasters, or months-long droughts. Variations like this are perilous for countries with large agricultural output, as excessive water consumption leaves little available for food production. Pakistan’s rice and India’s wheat crop are vital trade commodities; their major exports come from the same shared river basins that are being damaged.
By treating water and climate information as secret and classified, both sides have contributed to a disheartening closed data environment. Securitization of information remains a major constraint towards making progress that affects the social, political, and economic strength of the subcontinent. It reduces governments’ ability to effectively plan and manage existing resources, prepare for natural disasters and mitigate some of the effects of climate change. Where data is available, it is irregularly collected and difficult to verify, making it near impossible to have a comprehensive sense of the hydrological landscape.
Washington, DC policymakers agree it is in India and Pakistan’s interest to pursue a policy of data democratization and open communication. By doing so, the two nations are in a better position to uphold the provision for transparency that remains central to the Indus Treaty. Sharing information will push both countries to improve their data collection and management systems, and they would be better able to coordinate building capacity in areas where there are clear critical gaps of information.
Beyond intergovernmental data sharing, the readily available water and climate brings other stakeholders into a solutions-oriented dialogue. Civil society organizations, such as think tanks or development agencies, can begin exploring initiatives to alleviate strains on the water supply. Such initiatives currently struggle for accuracy themselves when they are unable to base their research and findings on verified information.
Water shortages are already a harsh reality for many South Asians. Heightened competition for water resources can stoke existing tensions or create opportunities for collaboration towards water security. By taking the step towards data sharing, South Asia can begin the urgently needed work between its governments, multilateral institutions, and civil society towards innovative solutions and planning for a fast-approaching future.
