The alarming spread of ISIS, coupled with competition amongst Iraq’s sectarian groups, has accelerated the Iraqi government’s disintegration.
This downfall began during the tenure of former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Malaki, whose policies triggered significant tensions between Iraq’s three main sectarian groups - the majority Shiites, the Sunnis and the Kurds – and propelled the rise of ISIS.
Today, the Iraqi government is headed by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi of the Islamic Dawa Party, the same political party that was chaired by Malaki. Last August, Abadi announced a seven point reform plan as part of his effort to overhaul the Iraqi government. The reforms pledged by Abadi include new corruption inquiries of former officials, the elimination of sectarian and party quotas in the Iraqi government, and the abolition of the three vice presidency positions that are currently held by prominent Iraqi politicians.
“Our government’s highest priority is reducing ethnic/sectarian tensions and divisions in Iraq,” said the Iraqi Prime Minister during an event at the Center for Strategic and International Studies last August.
However, while Abadi’s strategy appears to be aimed at reconciling Iraq’s sparring factions, little improvement has come to fruition. On paper, Abadi appears to be saying the right things, but with a lack of political backing, the reforms are moving along slowly, if at all. Some critics have even gone as far to label Abadi as the major problem in the Iraqi government.
“Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi will probably continue to struggle to advance his reforms—which aim to combat corruption and streamline government—because of resistance from Iraqi elites who view the reforms as threatening to their entrenched political interests, ” wrote James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence in his annual Worldwide Threat Assessment released on Tuesday.
On the battlefield, the Iraqi government has achieved minimal gains against ISIS. Although the Iraqi army recently announced that it fully recaptured the city of Ramadi from ISIS, the extremist group continues to control large swathes of territory in Iraq’s Sunni provinces. The lack of a cohesive military force has hampered the government’s ability to effectively combat ISIS, as many members of Iraq’s army have abandoned their units to join sectarian militias.
Further impeding any unification efforts undertaken by the central government is the internal struggle between Iraq’s religious and ethnic groups.
Sunnis have felt disenfranchised by an Iraqi government dominated by Shiites, enabling ISIS to gain traction in Sunni areas. Iraqi Shiites have grown increasingly close to the Iranian regime, leading some to label them as Iranian proxies. While the Kurds have assisted the Iraqi government in battling ISIS on the frontlines, they plan to hold a referendum in the coming months to determine the future status of their autonomous region in Northern Iraq.
These divergent interests continue to pose a significant challenge to any central Iraqi government attempting to consolidate political authority.
The Cipher Brief experts agree that the outlook is not bright for the Iraqi government, primarily due to inadequate representation amongst Iraq’s sectarian groups. “As long as this crisis of representation exists in Iraq, it is hard to see a post-ISIS environment,” explained former Kurdish official Renad Mansour. Politics remain the largest impediment to stability in Iraq and it does not appear the chaos there will end anytime soon.
Bennett Seftel is the Deputy Director of Editorial at The Cipher Brief.
