China’s less discussed territorial dispute is one that has the greatest potential for the United States to be drawn into conflict. While China has been more aggressive in building up military power in the South China Sea, for the past three years the Chinese have slowly been seizing control over the East China Sea from the Japanese.
China and Japan are both entitled under international law to an exclusive economic zone that includes the 200 nautical miles off their respective coasts. However, the East China Sea is only 360 nautical miles in width. Japan observes the median line between China and Japan as their EEZ, whereas China cites the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, "the natural prolongation of the continental shelf of China in the East China Sea extends to the Okinawa Trough and beyond 200 nautical miles from the baselines from which the breadth of the territorial sea of China is measured."
The islands being fought over, called the Senkakus by the Japan and the Diaoyus by China, have been under control of Japan since 1895. The islands, which lie north of Taiwan, have an estimated 200 million potential oil and natural gas reserves surrounding them. China began asserting claims over the island chain in the 1970s.
In 1995, China discovered a natural gas reserve in its EEZ. Japan then objected to any drilling near the disputed region of the East China Sea, as the reserve could be connected to a field that spans into Japan’s EEZ. With tensions increasing, the two countries began crisis management bilateral talks to lessen the chance of misperceptions escalating to conflict.
In 2013, China unilaterally announced an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the Senkaku Islands, which requires all aircraft passing through to ask China for permission to do so. This attempt to assert power in the region, severely strained relations between China and Japan, as the two countries now maintained overlapping ADIZs.
The Chinese Coast Guard has sailed ships armed with machine guns through the disputed waters, deliberately provoking their Japanese counterparts. The use of Coast Guard ships is a part of China’s strategy of, “using a steady progression of small, incremental steps to increase its effective control over disputed areas and avoid escalation to military conflict,” according to the U.S. Defense Department. With Chinese and Japanese militaries operating daily through the contested waters and air space, the potential for miscalculation is severe.
While China’s military buildup on islands in the South China Sea is concerning to the U.S., the potential for the United States to get drawn into conflict in the East China Sea is real. The U.S. and Japan’s Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security grants the United States the right to military bases on Japanese soil in exchange for a U.S. pledge to defend Japan in the event of an attack. Thus, a Chinese attack on a Japanese vessel sailing through disputed waters could draw the United States military into a hot conflict.
During a joint press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2014, President Barack Obama said, “Our commitment to Japan’s security is absolute and article five [of the security treaty] covers all territories under Japan’s administration, including the Senkaku islands.” This marked the first time a U.S. President explicitly stated that the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands would fall under the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty. The President continued, “We don’t take a position on this piece of land or this piece of rock, but we do take a position on the peaceful resolution of these disputes.”
With Japan’s recent military modernization, the potential for conflict is only growing. Prime Minister Abe has used substantial resources and political clout to ensure that Japan is able to defend itself if attacked, but he has also equally emphasized the importance of the United States in defending Japanese security. A recent report done by the Center for Strategic International Affairs and the Sasakawa Peace foundation determined the next 15 years will be “one of the most testing times in the entire history of the [U.S.-Japan] alliance.”
Alexandra Viers is an International Producer for The Cipher Brief.
