Meanwhile, Iran says it has sold oil from the tanker that was recently seized and then released by Gibraltar. The Iranian news agency IRIB quoted an Iranian government spokesman saying that the new owner, who was not identified, will decide on the vessel’s next destination.
That announcement follows an earlier one on Saturday that Iran had deployed a naval destroyer equipped with cruise missiles to help safeguard Iranian ships.
Also on Saturday, Israel said it targeted and struck drone sites run by Iran inside of Syria. Israel said that the sites were linked to planned attacks using “killer drones” against Israel. Hassan Nasrallah, head of Hezbollah, said two Lebanese nationals were killed in the strike.
We spoke with Cipher Brief Expert Norm Roule, who is also the former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at ODNI, about the latest moves and what they might tell us about Iran’s recent strategic decisions.
Roule: The French invitation to Zarif shows that Paris and other members of the P5 are seeking ways to continue discussions with Iran to keep the nuclear deal intact and perhaps President Macron hoped to use the event to affect some sort of rapprochement between Tehran and Washington. The reported lack of any meetings between U.S. officials and any Iranians indicates that the Trump administration has maintained its focus on the demands called for by Secretary of State Pompeo in May 2018. For Iran, the meeting will have allowed it an opportunity to stress its own demands to the Europeans and others. In addition, Zarif will have enjoyed the publicity and ability to posture on the world’s stage.
The Cipher Brief: There are reports of another Iranian tanker headed to Syria. If the U.S. or its allies physically seize it, will this signal a paradigm shift in tensions?
Roule: The British seizure of the Grace 1 tanker represented the most significant challenge to date of Iran’s provision of oil to Assad. This oil is important both to sustain the Syrian economy and to maintain Iran’s influence in Syria.
Norman T. Roule, Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, ODNI
The Grace 1 incident also showed Iran that whereas Europe did not break with the UK on the issue, neither did Europe show any interest in punishing Iran for violating EU sanctions on oil shipments to Syria. Iran is likely to continue providing oil to Assad and will retaliate against any country which attempts to seize its tankers. Iran is also looking to test international will regarding sanctions.
For these reasons, the U.S. should rally as much of the international community as possible against these shipments. However, if policy makers are interested in weakening Assad or Iran’s influence in Syria, the interdiction of Iranian energy shipments to Damascus is a good place to start.
The Cipher Brief: Is Iran’s campaign to destabilize oil markets having it’s intended effect?
Roule: Not to the extent Iran wishes economically due to softening demand for oil and steady supply from other countries. But the threat of Iran’s actions has produced a growing coalition of states willing to shepherd shipping in the Gulf and Sea of Oman. This is a costly step and it is unclear how long such operations will need to be conducted. Certainly, it appears that escort operations will continue and expand for the foreseeable future.
The Cipher Brief: What is your sense of Iran’s cyber activity?
Roule: As seen by recent press reports of Iranian cyber activity in the Gulf, such activities are likely to continue unabated. As economic pressure on Iran grows, I expect it will seek other opportunities to strike out against the U.S. and its partners as well as U.S firms in the region. There may be periods of a short-term rise or decline in the pace of such actions, but Iran has likely learned that these operations are inexpensive for Tehran, expensive for victims, and like much of Iran’s malign behavior, can be conducted at no political cost.
The Cipher Brief: How do you think Iran sees protests in Russia and Hong Kong? Do you see any indications that internal unrest is increasing inside Iran?
Roule: Although Iran will take little comfort from such internal pressures against its two most important partners, Tehran likely seeks little reason for worry. I see no indications of significant unrest in Iran over the short term, but the likelihood for unrest will inevitably rise as time passes and its economy erodes. For this reason, Iran can’t let up on its pressure campaign against Europe to provide sanctions relief options.
The Cipher Brief: Is Iran any closer to feeling pressure to negotiate?
Roule: I don’t think so. Iran’s alleged offers to conduct a prisoner exchange and to tweak the nuclear deal were likely as much tests of our position and attempts to manipulate our domestic debate as anything else. There are, as yet, few strategic drivers for Iran to compromise on its core regional and domestic positions. In the near term, Iran will likely continue to seek opportunities to show defiance, increase pressure on Europe to produce a financial arrangement which undercuts sanctions, and maintain an external and internal narrative that it is the victim against U.S. and Arab aggression.
The Cipher Brief: What other Iranian actions should we be more focused on?
Roule: Iran’s activities in Syria receive remarkably little attention by the outside world.
Norman T. Roule, Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, ODNI
Iran and its surrogates likely continue to be involved in all major battles. Iranian casualties have probably dropped as the intensity of fighting has declined, but likely continue. Reports of attacks against Iranian proxy warehouses in Iraq also deserve additional focus. If true, it is likely that the attacker saw these stockpiles as a direct threat to regional states and that would mean that Iraq’s evolution has taken another step in the direction of Lebanon.
I also think that Iran’s regional defeats deserved more notice. Thanks to multiple Israeli strikes, Iran has not been able to establish its missile and naval bases in Syria. Thanks to Arab coalition operations, Iranian goals in Yemen have also been blunted, at least for now.
Read more from Cipher Brief Expert and former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at ODNI, Norm Roule in The Cipher Brief and hear directly from experts like Roule at The Cipher Brief’s 2020 Threat Conference March 22-24 in Sea Island, GA.
