Political turmoil in South Korea, following its president’s impeachment, could be exacerbated if North Korea tries to take advantage of a vacuum. That’s according to Jonathan Pollack, Interim SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies at the Brookings Institution.
“Pyongyang is highly practiced at injecting instability at times it deems appropriate, and the conjunction of a U.S. presidential transition and domestic crisis in Seoul could prove irresistible. Another nuclear test, a long-range rocket test, one or more missile tests, or other threatening actions could be among the possibilities,” he writes.
“North Korea,” he continues, “could thus readily trigger the first security crisis that the Trump administration will confront.”
On Friday, South Korea’s National Assembly voted 234 to 56, with six absentions, to impeach President Park Geun-Hye for constitutional violations, including dereliction of duty and abuse of power, in connection with an alleged corruption scandal.
Park’s presidency will now be frozen, and Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn will have de facto control of the government, until the country’s Constitutional Court decides whether to accept the vote.
The Court has 180 days to deliberate, but analyts say it is likely to vote sooner rather than later. If the impeachment is approved, Park would be removed from office immediately, and South Koreans would have at most 60 days to elect a new president.
Following the vote, Park apologized for the turmoil in the country, but denied any role in the scandal. Her apologies have done little to quell popular discontent. Mass protests calling for her removal intensified in the weeks leading up to Friday’s vote, and her approval rating hovers around a record low four to five percent.
Disillusionment with the President began in earnest this summer, when allegations surfaced that the offical Residence, the Blue House, used its influence to help the daughter of Park’s family friend, Choi Sun-sil, gain admission to an elite university.
The scandal intensified in October amid media reports that Choi edited a number of speeches for Park. There are also allegations of extortion involving foundations that Choi controls. She and top officials on Park’s staff were subsequently charged and are being investigated by a parliamentary committee.
Last month, prosecutors announced that Park herself is a criminal suspect, for allegedly being a co-conspirator in Choi’s apparent extortion scheme.
Corruption is not unusual in South Korean politics, according to Eunjung Lim, a lecturer in Korea Studies at the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. But, as she told The Cipher Brief, what is different this time is “she [Choi] is the center of the scandal, and she does not have any legal authority [and] no official affiliation with the government […] People feel insulted.”
Scott Snyder, the Director of the Council on Foreign Relations Program on U.S.-Korea Policy writes, “The public’s emotional response stems from a combination of Park’s secrecy, her lack of accountability for Choi’s actions, her seeming admission of connection to the scandals, and national embarrassment that the president would take secret advice on appointments and policies from a friend who exploited her privilege for personal gains.”
As long as the political landscape in South Korea remains uncertain, there will be continued speculation and concern over the direction a future leader will take on security and alliances in the region.
For example, analysts say if a new South Korean President were to choose to turn eastward and align more closely with China, U.S. plans to implement the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) missile defense system could be dead in the water.
This past summer, the U.S. and South Korea agreed to deploy THAAD to help defend against a possible attack from North Korea. However, South Korea’s political upheaval, coupled with uncertainty about the incoming U.S. President’s policies towards the region, could put that THAAD deployment at risk.
The next 180 days will determine South Korea’s political stability and future trajectory.
Kaitlin Lavinder is a reporter at The Cipher Brief. Follow her on Twitter @KaitLavinder.
