Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull plans to almost double his country’s annual defense spending by 2026. The move comes as China threatens peace in the Asia Pacific, and ISIS continues to wreak terror at home and abroad. The 2016 Defense White Paper released last month will require Australia to “ride two horses”—have an ally in Washington, and a friend in Beijing.
Australia has long struggled to balance the need to defend Australian territory at home and its role as a foreign deployed ally and military supporter to great powers.
In today’s ever-shrinking world, it is becoming more difficult for Australia to rest on its geographic isolation as a substitute for a strong military. “The growth and spread of precision strike, cyber, and space capabilities in general, and China’s development of force projection capabilities in particular, have reduced Australia’s ability to isolate itself from threats,” former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Mahnken told The Cipher Brief.
Six of the ten largest arms importing nations are located in the Asia Pacific, according to a recent report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Chinese island building efforts in the South China Sea that have sparked international condemnation have caused concern for those in Australia as well. Five trillion dollars in global trade passes through the South China Sea every year, and Beijing’s actions could have economic implications should they begin to restrict freedom of navigation in the disputed areas over which they claim.
The Defense White Paper proposes an expanded Australian defense force of 62,400 personnel, with the addition of 2,500 new roles, including 900 jobs focused on improved cyber, intelligence, and aerospace security. This move seeks to bring Australia more in line with other countries’ military budgets, and will represent around two percent of its GDP.
During a speech in Washington, former Australian Minister of Defense, Kevin Andrews said, “Our national interests lie in a ‘regional-plus’ approach; one that focuses on secure trade routes, a stable Indo-Pacific, and a rules-based order.” But, this regional approach is expanded due to Australia’s alliance with the United States.
"The United States will remain the pre-eminent global military power over the next two decades," Prime Minister Turnbull said. "It will continue to be Australia's most important strategic partner through our long-standing alliance, and the active presence of the United States will continue to underpin the stability of our region."
Australia is also part of the U.S.-led Coalition against the Islamic State. “Motivated by the globalized threat posed by ISIS and al Qaeda, Australian involvement has also been prompted by its previous deployment in Iraq and its ongoing prioritization of its U.S. alliance responsibilities,” Maryanne Kelton, Senior Lecturer of International Relations at Flinders University in South Australia told The Cipher Brief. “However, while the Coalition attempts to shape the global environment, it is the prospective ISIS, al Qaeda, and their associates’ transfer of threat directly to Australia and the immediate Southeast Asian region that is increasing trepidation in Australia.”
The new Defense White Paper is a giant step forward in Australia’s desire to establish a heavier and more capable presence in the Indo-Pacific. With the strategic environment becoming tenser by the day, the securing of vital shipping lanes in the region may depend on an Australian military that is prepared, and well equipped, to enter conflict to protect its interests there.
Alexandra Viers is an International Producer with The Cipher Brief.
