EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — Russia boasts the world’s largest land mass, one of the world’s largest standing armies, and a weapon that it has used to great effect since its assault against Ukraine began in February 2022: a state propaganda apparatus with almost no global parallel. In a series of pieces for The Cipher Brief this year, Stanislav Kucher has reported on how Russian state media and other Kremlin-backed influencers have spread false narratives about the war and demonized the West – most recently in a collection of disinformation about Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.
Julia Davis, a Ukraine-born American engineer and journalist, has recently made a career of monitoring Russian state media, and her Russian Media Monitor has been touted as the most sophisticated source of analysis for watching and understanding how the Kremlin promotes its messaging in Russia and around the world.
Davis is also a columnist for The Daily Beast and the Center for European Policy Analysis, and the author of the recently-published In Their Own Words: How Russian Propagandists Reveal Putin’s Intentions.
Davis spoke with Cipher Brief senior book editor Bill Harlow, in a wide-ranging conversation about the Russian media landscape, the absence of true journalism in that country, and the dangerous manipulation of the truth that Russian propagandists undertake on a daily basis.
Their conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
The Cipher Brief: You didn't start out as a Russian media monitor. You've had a long career doing other things as well.
Davis: I grew up in Kyiv. That's where I was born and raised. That's also where I studied to become an aviation and spacecraft engineer. And then I met my husband and moved to the United States. I've done quite a few interesting things.
But when Putin first invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea (in 2014), I noticed that the coverage of what was happening was so limited here, and often relied on Russia's own talking points. That was a big problem, because Russia lies in such a prolific way, and yet it was escaping the attention of many people in the media here.
So I decided to step into the gap and cover that, so that people could see what Russia is doing, and how different it is – what they say to people in the West in English, versus what they actually admit to their domestic audiences, and how their experts, lawmakers, and government officials plot to harm and undermine the West. And that disparity brought into focus their propaganda tactics and how they attack Westerners, who they consider ignorant of Russia, and ignorant and stupid in general. So I thought it was important to cover.
The Cipher Brief: When you look at the timeline of how commentary from Russian talking heads has evolved – or devolved – over a period of time, it’s really useful to see this in the context of what they were saying in the run-up to the latest invasion of Ukraine and after that as well.
Davis: What was so interesting was how they were cultivating the population, preparing them for the inevitable invasion of Ukraine long before it happened. How their genocidal rhetoric has evolved over time to portray Ukrainians as roaches to be exterminated, as animals, and getting people accustomed to the idea that this war was inevitable, and that it was somehow just. And unfortunately, with a large portion of the Russian population it worked. Probably at least 40% have fallen for it completely and are supportive of Putin's invasion.
The Cipher Brief: As I understand it, there's not just one state TV network. There's multiple channels that you have to keep an eye on to track what they're saying to the Russian people.
Davis: That's correct. And you can literally see which talking points they have received that morning because on all of their TV and radio programs, you will see and hear the same talking points that they get. They may be completely different from what they have told the people the day before, but they have zero respect for their audience, which basically has no choice but the state media, except for those that choose to seek out other news via VPNs (virtual private networks) or other means. They are operating in concert, and promoting the same points of view that are given to them by their government minders.
The Cipher Brief: Talking about the latest invasion of Ukraine, it was interesting to read in your book how the talking points evolved. Early on, they were denying that they had any intentions to invade; they were just conducting exercises. And then when they did invade, they said that it would be a matter of days. One person you cite talked about how it would take just a matter of minutes for them to bring down the Ukrainian side. And then as things bogged down, all of a sudden the talking points changed, to how they always knew it was going to take years to “denazify” Ukraine.
Davis: Yes, they changed along with the situation. They were predicting Ukrainians would be meeting them with flowers and freshly-baked pies. Now they blame the West because they claim that it was the West that convinced Ukrainians that they were not Russians.
Russia’s propagandists completely deny the notion of a Ukrainian nation and Ukrainian nationality, and say that Ukrainians are just mentally ill Russians whom they have to "cure." And they estimate that at least 2 million Ukrainians have to be killed because they cannot be reeducated, and the rest will eventually fall in line and recognize that they are not Ukrainians, but Russians.
Some Russian generals have estimated that it might take 30 or 40 years to fully change the Ukrainian mindset and eradicate the notion of being Ukrainian, because they will have to work on several generations, and that it will take millions of Russians that would be in control of the territory to make that happen. So they have really horrific plans in mind, and it's up to the West to help Ukraine so that it doesn't happen. Because it's really a nightmare scenario that they're plotting.
The Cipher Brief: Do you have any way to gauge whether the people who are spouting these talking points actually believe them – or are they just saying what they need to say in order to keep their jobs?
Davis: Some of them really buy into it. For example, the head of RT (Russia Today), Margarita Simonyan, is a really fervent believer that Russia should retake these former colonies like Ukraine, and has been proposing that for years.
Then there are people like (Russian TV host) Vladimir Solovyov who just seems to be a real opportunist. He used to say that the idea that Russia would ever be at war with Ukraine was unconscionable. And now he says it was inevitable. He will basically fall in with any talking points that he is given. And he reportedly has a mistress and two children in the United States, that he had prepared for himself as an apparent exit strategy, and he has villas in Italy that have been seized pursuant to sanctions, which he talks about obsessively. So he clearly loves the Western lifestyle and was planning to retire and live happily ever after in the United States, which he now bashes and proposes to nuke on a daily basis. He is a definite hypocrite.
It's a mixture – full of hypocrites, as well as some sincere believers.
The Cipher Brief: And so do they see themselves as propagandists or journalists?
Davis: They proudly proclaim that they are propagandists and they say that there's no such thing as a journalist; everyone is a propagandist. And in that way, they convince their audience that it doesn't matter if they're caught lying, it doesn't matter if they're just blatantly misrepresenting things, because it's all propaganda, and as a patriot you are to side with your country's propaganda, because if you don't, then you are siding with the enemy's propaganda. They present it like a sports game. Doesn't matter if your team is cheating, you're still supposed to root for your team. They acknowledge that they are a weapon of the Russian government, and they see themselves as a weapon against the West.
The Cipher Brief: And most Russians have no other source of information, unless they're willing to risk getting VPNs?
Davis: That's correct. And they actually routinely complain that the younger people choose to seek out alternative means of finding information and talk about how to curtail it. They've started cracking down on VPNs. They have slowed down YouTube and they're constantly talking about completely blocking YouTube potentially. Simonyan, the head of RT, says that it is her dream that they become like China, where there is total censorship of the information that is being released there. It really is almost comical when you see RT and their English-language propaganda, where they claim to be proponents of free speech, but only when it has to do with exposing something in the West, or covering some protests or unrest in the West. But in reality, the head of RT dreams of total censorship.
The Cipher Brief: Among the striking things is the bellicose language that many of these propagandists use. One that you cite, Dmitry Kiselyov, boasted that Russia is the only country in the world that is capable of turning the United States into radioactive ash. Another declared that mushroom clouds may rise over Ukraine, but the NATO flag may not. Do you think they truly believe this? Is this a message to the West or is this a message to their own people?
Davis: If you listen to them closely, they explain the strategy themselves. They actually quote Machiavelli, saying that fear is the best way to get what you want out of people. And so this is what it's supposed to do. It's supposed to scare the West into backing down. They're hoping to create another situation like the Cuban Missile Crisis, where they could scare the United States sufficiently to where it will say, "Okay, we will leave you alone and we'll mind our part of the world and you do what you want in yours." So that's what those nuclear threats are designed to do.
No, they don't actually believe that the Russian government is insane enough to start using nuclear weapons against the West. However, they do believe that the Russian government might use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine if things look like they're losing. That much they do believe.
The Cipher Brief: You mentioned Margarita Simonyan. I was struck by one quote that you reported of hers, before the 2020 election, when she said, "I think Trump will lose, but then I think there'll be a major blowup from the standpoint of accepting or not accepting the outcome of the election. They'll be battling over that for a long time. Who knows how it might end?" That seems to fit your theme about how they wish for us to divide and fight among ourselves.
Davis: Absolutely. That is one of their favorite talking points and one of their biggest hopes, that the divisions in the United States will lead to civil war. They talk about it every day. And they are now trying to come to grips with the idea that Trump may not win after all, which is really a shock to them. But then, since they have to portray Putin as a geopolitical genius where everything that happens in the world somehow benefits Russia, they're now trying to say that Democrats are all talk and no action, and that the Trumpers are the ones that went after the Capitol and tried to overthrow the government. So they're hoping that even if Kamala Harris wins, then Trumpers will lead another insurrection and there will be civil war.
This is their hope that springs eternal, that there will be a civil war in the United States. In fact, they believe that this is the best way of destroying the United States. They really hope that the United States will self-destruct because of divisions, which by the way, Russian media is doing its best to help stoke with their English-language outlets. Margarita Simonyan admitted they have hundreds if not thousands of other outlets that don't have the RT logo that are masquerading as something else, something not tied to Russia whatsoever, that are trying to stoke divisions and insert their propaganda points into videos that are delivered to Americans in various formats.
The Cipher Brief: How do they handle division within their own country?
Davis: Those are things that they try not to talk about more than they have to. With (Wagner Chief Yevgeny) Prigozhin, as soon as his uprising was suppressed, they started saying that he's a traitor, he needs to die. And they laid the groundwork so that when he did die, no one was to question it. And everyone was supposed to say, "Well, this is just the way it is. He decided to betray Putin and this is how it happens." And they pretend that there are no divisions in Russian society while they're dealing with different terrorist acts and different ethnicities that rebel against Russian control. But they try to keep that under wraps, and say that all these hundreds of different nationalities and ethnicities are living peacefully with one another. But it's not true.
The Cipher Brief: Even religious leaders get involved. You quote Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox Church, as saying, "We pray that the Lord admonish those madmen and help them to understand that any desire to destroy Russia will mean the end of the world." That's pretty shocking for a religious leader to be talking that way.
Davis: Absolutely. But Putin uses religion as just another weapon, and just another way to get the Russian people to submit. That is the message that they always preach, that people must submit to the government.
The Russian church is also blessing their weapons, blessing their nuclear weapons and their regular weapons. It's really not much of a church. It's just an extension of the Russian government. They claim that this is a Holy War, and they fully endorse the invasion of Ukraine and all the bloodshed and the suffering. So it's just another weapon.
The Cipher Brief: Another thing that comes clear through your reporting is that Russia is paranoid about NATO, that they see NATO's shadow everywhere – and they are dropping hints about the next shoe to drop. After they take over Ukraine, they make noises about Poland and other countries on the perimeter of the former Soviet Union.
Davis: Yes, but with all their boasting, if you read between the lines or listen closely, they're actually quite worried about NATO military capabilities, about its size. They admit that it far surpasses Russia's capabilities and while they claim they're already at war with NATO, they know they would not fare well if there actually was a war with NATO. And if you notice, new nations that have been admitted to NATO didn't seem to worry them that much.
The reason that they're so anti-NATO is because it stands in their way of swallowing up more neighbors. And if Ukraine was in NATO, this invasion would've never happened. And one reason that they are so desperate to take over Ukraine is to make sure that it does not get absorbed in NATO, in which case they wouldn't be able to touch it. So NATO is just their boogeyman. They know NATO would not attack Russia, but NATO prevents Russia from biting off other pieces from other countries.
The Cipher Brief: Despite all the doom and gloom, there were a couple of humorous moments in the book. I noticed that you talked about how the propagandists were outraged when Taylor Swift beat out Putin for Time Magazine's person of the year. So I guess that's part of their cult of personality.Davis: It definitely is. They were certainly upset about that. It's really comical, because they are really infatuated and enamored with everything Western, and they can't hide it even though they try. They hate the West, because they weren't able to wedge their way in there and somehow dominate the West. And that also fits with their agenda of claiming that they are secretly pulling the strings behind various events in the West, which they try to do, but they portray themselves as far more successful than they actually are.
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