Former CIA Deputy Director of Counterintelligence and Cipher Brief expert Mark Kelton wrote this week in The Cipher Brief that “Vladimir Putin should be unhappy. His dreams of restoring Moscow’s preeminent world role notwithstanding, the Russian President finds himself playing second fiddle to his fellow authoritarian in Beijing in an “Axis of Autocracy” defined less by common interests than by a common adversary. The Russian economy – beset by sanctions – is stagnant. Those sanctions, engendered by Putin’s aggression against his neighbors, remain in place.”
But even so, Russia has remained seemingly undeterred in its quest to exploit incidents like the U.S.-directed killed of Iranian Quds Force General Qassem Soleimani in a drone strike in Baghdad last month. The killing prompted a series of swift actions throughout the Middle East as world leaders worked to de-escalate rising tensions. But tensions and chaos provide enormous opportunity for Russia, which consistently punches above its weight by exploiting those incidents that result in chaos. The killing of Suleimani, in a way, offered Russia an opportunity to reset the Middle East chessboard.
Background:
- Along with China, Russia has been a consistent supporter of Iran within the United Nations.
- Russia has a history of foreign policy moves designed to counter American influence, fill gaps that the U.S. has created, or simply to expand their regional influence. Moscow has recently deployed military forces and advisors to Venezuela & Syria and has sent proxies to Libya.
- Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace told the Wall Street Journal that “Iran is one of the most strategically lonely countries in the world. It considers dozens of countries around the world its adversary, and its only reliable friend has been the Assad regime in Syria,”. About Russia, Sadjadpour said, “it benefits from an isolated, anti-American Iran that can’t exploit its energy resources.”
- On Dec 27, 2019, multiple news sources reported that Russia, China & Iran began a four-day joint military exercise in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Oman.
- Last month, Al Jazeera reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashir Assad held a surprise meeting in Damascus. It was Putin’s first visit to Damascus.
The Experts:
The Cipher Brief reached out to our experts specifically with significant CIA experience in dealing with Russia to get their thoughts on these key topics.
Michael Sulick served as director of CIA’s National Clandestine Service and is currently a consultant on counterintelligence and global risk assessment. While at CIA, Sulick also served as Chief of Counterintelligence and Chief of the Central Eurasia Division where he was responsible for intelligence collection operations and foreign liaison relationships in Russia, Eastern Europe and the former republics of the Soviet Union.
Rob Dannenberg is a 24-year veteran of the CIA, where he served in several senior leadership positions, including chief of operations for the Counterterrorism Center, chief of the Central Eurasia Division and chief of the CIA’s Information Operations Center. He is an independent consultant on geopolitical and security risk, after serving as the managing director and head of the Office of Global Security for Goldman Sachs, and director of International Security Affairs at BP.
Steven Hall retired from CIA in 2015 after 30 years of running and managing intelligence operations in Eurasia and Latin America. Hall finished his career as a member of the Senior Intelligence Service, the small cadre of officers who are the senior-most leaders of the CIA’s Clandestine Service. Most of Mr. Hall’s career was spent abroad, overseeing intelligence operations in the countries of the former Soviet Union and the former Warsaw Pact.
Understanding the relationship between Putin and Suleimani
"Putin and Suleimani had a serious working relationship; he came repeatedly to Moscow, even before the Russian intervention in Syria—and coordinated actions IRGC actions (in Syria) while in Moscow," says Dannenberg.
Robert Dannenberg, Former Chief, CIA's Central Eurasia Division
Putin is aware that Russia’s move into Syria, which saved Assad, also gave Suleimani a kind of extra boost in prestige and influence in Tehran. Before the Russian intervention, Iran had been largely resigned to Assad going. Suleimani was one of the few senior Iranian officials arguing to double-down on Assad. It seems rather likely that without the Russian intervention, Assad would not have held on, but as Putin moved in, Assad’s regime was saved, and this strengthened Suleimani. At the same time, the Russians needed Suleimani’s network of militias in Syria. There is no doubt that the Russian military saw Suleimani as a valued ally and helped him and the Iranian-linked militias in Syria, first and foremost as their de facto “air force.”
What is Russia's primary focus in the Middle East?
Robert Dannenberg, Former Chief, CIA's Central Eurasia Division
The Russians are vested in selling their equipment to protagonists in the region. Putin is clever enough to avoid the risk of direct confrontation between U.S. military forces and Russian military forces. I consider that unlikely and I draw as basis for my remarks the largely careful orchestration of Russian military activity in Syrian airspace. Although there have been some close calls, the risk that so many of us feared of Russian aircraft shooting against U.S. or other military aircraft or vice versa has largely been avoided.
"I am certain that that's the thinking as U.S. power projection in the Persian Gulf region has reached now really quite extraordinary levels," says Dannenberg. "The Russians are perfectly happy to let others do their fighting for them. And the one exception, and it’s really only kind of a minor exception, is when Wagner Group mercenaries, back in February 2018, tried to assault a US Special Operations held position in Syria. That prompted a strike that resulted in some 300 Russian casualties. I don't think the Russians are in a hurry to risk military confrontation with the United States. They'll stay on the sidelines, except rhetorically, as one of their key objectives at this point is to encourage the withdrawal and/or expulsion of US forces from the region."
Is Russia Iran's most important ally right now?
"Before Syria, you could have said that Iran was probably one of, if not the most important Russian ally in the Middle East. Syria might well be in the running for that now," says Hall.
Steven L. Hall, Former Member, CIA's Senior Intelligence Service
Vladimir Putin craves being considered a world leader, and he has largely accomplished that successfully by reinserting Russia in Middle Eastern politics over the past couple of years, with Syria being a good example but also in Iran, Iraq and Libya. And that is a key foreign policy strategic goal for Vladimir Putin. And to the extent that the United States is weakened in the Middle East, and to the extent that people look to Russia to say, "Maybe they ought to be involved because they can talk to the Iranians." as the argument often goes, that plays straight into the hands of Vladimir Putin. He says, "Yes, you need to have us help solve these problems."
"Set aside the fact that Vladimir Putin himself was largely responsible for creating a lot of the problems, whether it's in Syria or their relationship with Iran and selling weapons and nuclear proliferation and that sort of thing," adds Hall. "Putin is very good at creating problems that only he can solve, that he hopes the West and others in the world will turn to. And that plays back into the great power goal that he continues to have for Russia."
Michael Sulick, Former Director, CIA National Clandestine Service
I think it's true that Russia would probably prefer to see Iran a little bit isolated, but I don't think they want a major conflict between the U.S. and Iran, because if Iran is crippled, it especially affects Iran's ability to support the Assad regime in Syria. And Syria is clearly an important pillar of Putin's new foothold in the Middle East. So I don't exclude the possibility that at some point, if it looks like we are moving towards an all-out war, Putin, just as he did in Syria, steps in to offer mediation.
"There are certainly some positive aspects of doing that for Putin. He can, number one, prevent further destruction to the Iranian regime from U.S. attacks; two, he could maintain and even improve the relations that he's cultivated very well in the last few years with anti-Iranian countries," adds Sulick. "He's got a good relationship with the Saudi’s, Israel and the Gulf states. And three, I'd say it could also counter some of the anti-Russian sentiment here in the United States. Plus, he would solidify his position as the Middle East power broker that he's already established and enhance his global prestige.
What should the U.S. be doing right now in terms of its relationship with Russia and what should we expect in the near future?
Michael Sulick, Former Director, CIA National Clandestine Service
I certainly would hope that there are back channels going on now with our allies, and frankly with Russia as well to say, ‘Let's try to work this out diplomatically’, which - as it is now - is probably difficult to do. Iran is hell-bent on revenge, so it's going to be very hard and they need a way to save face. I read what Cipher Brief expert Norm Roule recently wrote in The Cipher Brief and I agree with him completely. Applying diplomatic pressure might help. But the only country Iran is likely to listen to is Russia at this point.
Robert Dannenberg, Former Chief, CIA's Central Eurasia Division
Iran is likely going to respond to the killing of Suleimani in cyberspace, and the Russians will likely help them in that domain. The Iranians, if they're going to respond kinetically, are likely to use surrogates. The Russians have provided de facto air cover for IRGC Quds Force operations in Syria, and they will continue to do so. There will be a lot of posturing and a lot of noise out of Moscow and a lot of Russian intelligence activity encouraging those elements in Iraq that want to see the U.S. forced out.
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