Narushige Michishita, an Asian security expert at the Woodrow Wilson Center, discusses Japan’s new national security law and how it could affect Japan’s ability to work with other countries in East Asia. He also addressed the potential impact this expansion of the Japanese Self Defense Forces (SDF) will have on the Japanese economy.
The Cipher Brief: How do you expect Japan’s neighboring countries such as China, and North and South Korea to be influenced by Japan’s new national security law? Will this affect the balance of power in the Pacific?
Narushige Michishita: Japan’s new national security laws are designed to help maintain the balance of power in the region in the face of the rising China. If the regional balance is maintained, it will be easier for Japan to prevent hardliners in China from becoming more influential, and to convince Chinese leaders and people that a cooperative approach is the best way to make China a great and respected nation.
The new security laws will also strengthen Japan’s commitment to the defense of South Korea. They will make it possible for Japan to shoot down ballistic missiles that North Korea has launched against Guam or Hawaii, protect U.S. naval vessels fighting for South Korea even before Japan is attacked, and undertake minesweeping operations in the vicinity of the Korean Peninsula—all by exercising the right of collective self-defense.
Moreover, if South Korea says yes, the United States, South Korea and Japan can start sharing targeting information in order to enhance their ability to defend against North Korean ballistic missiles.
TCB: How will Japan’s expansion of the Self Defense Forces affect their domestic economy?
NM: In April 2014, Japan made a decision to lift the self-imposed ban on arms exports and on Japan's participation in international joint weapons development programs. This will hopefully make it possible for Japan to procure better weapon systems at more affordable costs. Now that Japanese arms producers can sell their products to foreign customers in addition to the, their products’ unit cost will go down. Australia is seriously considering a purchase of Japan's Soryu-class submarines. If Australia decides to buy the Japanese subs, it will be a win-win-win deal in which Japan can sell its products, Australia can acquire the world’s best non-nuclear submarines, and the two countries’ navies will become more interoperable.
One potential concern is that it is not clear whether Japanese arms producers will be able to compete with their foreign rivals. For one, they have long remained protected and isolated. For another, Japanese weapons are not battle tested.
In terms of imports, the SDF’s recent decision to start procuring new assets, such as F-35 fighters and V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft, will put significant fiscal burden on Japan. Japan is buying these expensive assets from the United States when significant depreciation of the Japanese yen has undermined its purchasing power.
TCB: In what ways do you see this military expansion will strengthen the U.S.’s relationship with Japan? In what ways might it hurt it?
NM: The SDF will be able to work more closely with U.S. forces in the future in both peace and war. However, the new security laws merely make the closer cooperation legally possible. It will still take political decision to make such cooperation come true.
Japanese people have been living in a comfortable world in which the United States provides protection in return for military bases in Japan. They did not have to put their country’s service men and women in harm’s way. It is therefore not entirely clear whether Japan can move away from traditional isolationism toward security activism, and if it fails to do so, the United States will be deeply disappointed.
Dr. Narushige Michishita is a visiting fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and simultaneously professor of the Security and International Studies Program at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) in Tokyo.
