For two decades, hundreds of Russian citizens have become victims of terrorism rooted in the turbulent North Caucasus region of Russia. This area has also been a major source of fighters for different radical Islamic groups in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and beyond.
Several developments contributed to the radicalization of the North Caucasus region and the Republic of Chechnya in particular. Chechens are one of the largest ethnic groups of the North Caucasus, a group that has not stopped its struggle for independence since Imperial Russian forces established control over the region in the 19th century. Accused of collaborating with the Germans during WWII, the entire Chechen population was forcefully deported from the North Caucasus to Kazakhstan and Siberia in 1944. Tens of thousands of children, women, and men died during that terrible criminal act committed by the Soviet government, led by Josef Stalin. Chechens were not allowed to come back to their homeland until 1957.
After the collapse of Soviet Union, Chechens seized the opportunity and announced independence from the Russian Federation in the early 90s. This led to a short lived de facto independence of Chechnya and two large-scale military conflicts between the supporters of independence and Russian forces. Two wars in Chechnya and the brutality of Russian forces in the small republic transformed not only Chechnya but also the entire North Caucasus.
Radical Islam started to penetrate the Caucasus from the mid-90s, as a follow up to the first Russian war in Chechnya in 1994-1996, which ended with the humiliating defeat of Russian forces. The radical Islamic fighters from the Middle East had by then already joined Chechen forces and brought with them a radical Salafi (also referred as Wahhabi, though Salafists consider the term derogatory) version of Islam. In fact, they served as missionaries for their movement in the entire Caucasus. As a result, a large number of Chechens, Dagestanies, Ingushs and other Muslim ethnic groups of the North Caucasus converted from traditional moderate Sufi followers to radical Salafists.
The indiscriminate Russian military tactic that targeted not only fighters but also the civilian population, and the radical Islamic influence from the Middle East were the main reasons for the radicalization of Chechen militants as well as significant segments of the population in the entire North Caucasus.
The second Russian military campaign in Chechnya started in the fall of 1999, after the appointment of Vladimir Putin as Prime Minister of Russia. At that time, he was a second-tier state official with a KGB background, who was unknown to the public. His drive to popularity, continuing to this day in his third presidential term, started with harsh nationalistic rhetoric and a follow-up second military campaign in Chechnya, which this time led to military victory. The cost of victory, in addition to Russian casualties, was hundreds of thousands of killed civilians who could not escape the Russian carpet bombings in the Chechen capital of Grozny and other areas.
Moscow eventually subdued Chechnya and installed as president a former nationalist fighter and warlord, Akhmed Kadyrov, who was assassinated on May 9, 2004 and soon after was replaced by his son Ramzan Kadyrov, notoriously known for his repressive methods of governance and frequently alleged as being behind the assassinations and attacks on Putin’s opponents in Russia. Paradoxically, Kadyrov has essentially a free hand in ruling Chechnya, making it de-facto independent again, without a declaration of independence.
In early 2000s, part of the surviving Chechen and other fighters migrated to Afghanistan and joined forces with the Taliban, al-Qaeda affiliates, and other radical groups, including most recently the Islamic State.
Other fighters organized multiple terrorist attacks in different cities and towns in Russia. The terrorist attack that made the most headlines was a hostage-taking attack on a school in Beslan, a town in North Ossetia. More than 300 people died in the three-day siege, most of them children. This, along with many other brutal terrorist attacks, did not serve the purpose of Chechen independence and created the association of Chechens, as well as other fighters from the North Caucasus, to terrorism.
Today, while no military operations are ongoing, the North Caucasus remains an unstable area frequently shaken by terrorist attacks of different scales. The female suicide bomber attacks on the Moscow metro in March of 2010, and the derailment of the Nevsky Express high-speed train by explosion, demonstrates that terrorism in Russia is not limited to the North Caucasus only.
The fundamental political, social, and economic problems of the North Caucasus remain unchanged: mostly oppressive local regimes operating in the absence of rule of law, allowing criminality and corruption to flourish; very few services provided to the population by the governments; and a high level of unemployment, which is worsening with the overall deterioration of the economic situation in Russia. This environment leaves no space for secular opposition or civil society to develop. As a result, radicalized Chechens and others from the North Caucasus are seeking help from anyone else they can, including with Islamic extremists.
Under the circumstances, it is no surprise that, according to the current Chechen leader Kadyrov, nearly 500 Chechens have joined the Islamic State. In total, almost 650 criminal cases are being investigated in Russia against Russian citizens fighting for the Islamic State, according to Prosecutor General Yury Chaika. These numbers may not fully reflect the scale of participation of Russian citizens in the Islamic State. This represents a serious potential threat to Russia. It is not clear yet how the growing Russian military presence in Syria will play in the processes evolving in the North Caucasus in the context of terrorist threats. But it is obviously an additional risk factor, as Russia has allied itself with Shi’a powers Iran and the Assad regime against Sunni rebel groups.
Due to all the factors described above, Russia will face a continuous threat of terrorism in years to come. At the same time, this threat will not remain in Russia alone and will echo elsewhere in the Middle East and Europe, wherever potential targets for Russian-grown radical groups may be.
The most important task for Russia is to look at the root causes of domestic terrorism and consider radical reforms internally that can implement rule of law and facilitate economic development. Whether the current Russian leadership has the capacity to do this is a big question. Instead of dealing with domestic problems, Russia has engaged itself in costly military occupations in Ukraine and Georgia. Threatening the sovereignty of neighboring countries and taking territories over is not going to help the consolidation and stability of the Russian state. Furthermore, it damages Russia’s international position.
The growing political gap between Russia and Western countries amid conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East will not help antiterrorism collaboration between Russia, Turkey, NATO countries, and others. Intelligence exchange and collaboration is the only way to prevent major terrorist attacks in Russia and elsewhere. Western countries, China, India, Russia, and other major powers all face radical Islamic terrorism as a threat, and by being a responsible international actor, Russia could benefit from international security collaboration.
