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Putin's Risky Options in Ukraine

Putin's Risky Options in Ukraine

Ukraine detailed editable map with regions cities and towns, roads and railways. Vector EPS-10 file

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — It is still more probable than not that Russian President Vladimir Putin will employ military force in the coming weeks. He is not going to obtain sufficient diplomatic concessions from the United States and NATO. He cannot keep his large army mobilised in mid-winter indefinitely and he may wish to seize the moment when the West looks weak and divided after the Afghan fiasco. And with an energy crisis in Europe, Putin may calculate that the European appetite for harsh sanctions against Moscow will diminish when the implications for gas supplies becomes obvious.

The Russian President’s primary objective seems to be to return Ukraine to the Russian sphere of influence or, failing that, to reduce its viability as a threat to Russia.

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