On November 25th, six Chinese aircraft—two nuclear-capable H-6K bombers, two Su-30 fighters, and two surveillance planes—participated in an exercise near Taiwan’s airspace.
Four of the craft, in an especially provocative move, circled the island. This was the first time China’s planes had done so.
A Taiwan defense spokesman said there was “absolutely no relation at all” between the Chinese air force exercise and the historic December 2 telephone call between President-elect Donald Trump and Taiwan’s leader, Tsai Ing-wen.
In all probability, the two unprecedented events are in fact connected, and they suggest Beijing understands the Trump-Tsai call signals a fundamental change in American policy toward China in general and Taiwan in particular.
As an initial matter, it is extremely unlikely the Taiwan military knows the motivation for any particular Chinese aerial exercise, so the denial looks politically motivated, to assure the Taiwan public that the phone call has not put the island at risk.
Moreover, various factors suggest a linkage between the two events. Beijing, with an extensive information-gathering network in Taipei, generally knows what goes on inside Taiwan’s government. The call, which shattered four decades of diplomatic isolation of the island republic, would be something Beijing would want to prevent.
After all, Beijing claims Taiwan as its 34th province and the call, even though it took just ten minutes, was an implicit recognition of Taiwan’s sovereignty. That became clear from the Trump’s transition team’s readout, which stated “President-elect Trump also congratulated President Tsai on becoming President of Taiwan earlier this year.”
Trump calling Tsai “President” is an acceptance of her position, that she is the head of a state separate and apart from China. Trump, as if to drive home the point, labeled her country “Taiwan,” not the formal “Republic of China.”
Commentators immediately said Trump’s taking the call from Tsai was just another shoot-from-the-hip moment from the president-elect. That narrative has been put to rest by reporting on the extensive arrangements preceding the call.
The significance of China’s aerial exercise is that it tells us not only were Trump and Tsai prepared for the call, but also they were determined to proceed in the face of Chinese threats.
And in the face of Trump’s determination, China has, at least for the most part, taken a cautious approach. Apart from ordering the official China Daily to call the president-elect a “diplomatic rookie,” Beijing has used measured language, especially in its diplomatic protest filed Saturday.
And Chinese leaders are trying to rein in Trump by using their “old friend,” former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. Kissinger, who sat down with President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Friday, is helping China in two ways. First, from all indications, Kissinger carried a message from Xi for Trump.
Second, Kissinger is praising China’s response to the call. “At this moment, I’ve been very impressed at the calm reaction of the Chinese leadership, which suggests a determination to see whether a calm dialogue can be developed,” he said on Monday in New York.
The goal of American foreign policy should not be, as Kissinger implies, “dialogue.” It should be responsible behavior from Beijing.
Of course Chinese leaders want to talk. But while Americans talk, they act. Among other things, experts believe they proliferate materials for North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs, pursue outlandish sovereignty claims and grab territory from their neighbors, and close off their home market through actions blatantly violating trade promises. They cyberattack the institutions of American society, from newspapers to advocacy groups to foundations to NGOs. They spy on American companies, taking hundreds of billions of dollars a year in intellectual property and commercially valuable information.
They will engage in these and other destabilizing acts until Washington imposes costs on them. Imposing costs on China will anger Chinese autocrats, but their happiness should not be an American concern. America’s concern is the maintenance of peace and stability. And the protection of free societies like Taiwan’s.
Washington’s foreign policy on Taiwan is unsustainable. It undermines a friendly free society to help an authoritarian state that is attacking American values.
American policy also works against efforts to maintain stability in East Asian waters by driving the island into China’s hands. Taiwan’s location is strategically important, the proverbial “cork in the bottle” at the intersection of the South China and East China Seas. It is, Douglas MacArthur said, the “unsinkable aircraft carrier.”
None of this is to say Trump’s new approach to China will work, but the current policy has to change.
Beijing, obviously, wants America’s policy to stay the same. After all, the Chinese air force just flew planes around Taiwan to try to prevent a ten-minute phone call.
