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Placating Patrons Who Control the Cards in Syria

As 2016 comes to a close, Russia and Turkey have cobbled together a ceasefire in Syria, paving the way for peace talks to end the more than five-year long war that has destroyed the country and torn asunder its social fabric.  Though past initiatives failed to silence the guns, the current plan holds more hope, even if its prospects for success are still low.

In September, the United States and Russia announced a similar ceasefire, which quickly crumbled.  A number of factors have created a more propitious atmosphere.  The rebel defeat in eastern Aleppo was a major blow to their fortunes, and they are scrambling to remain relevant as government forces increasingly shrink their territory.  The election of Donald Trump as president augurs a complete abandonment of their cause.  But ultimately, it is the Russians who have changed the calculus of the war.

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