With a familiar turn of phrase that still finds the world collectively raising its eyebrow, Rodrigo Duterte has added to his list of people and organizations that he feels should “go to hell.” The latest to earn this distinction is the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and is emblematic of Duterte’s desire to distance his country from what he sees as dependence on its former colonial overlord. As in previous cases, the comment was sparked by the international community’s concern over his controversial war on crime that has resulted in 4,300 extrajudicial killings.
More worrisome than these comments, which are frequently walked back, is Duterte’s equally vocal, yet more productive comments concerning a stronger relationship with China. Last week’s state visit to China resulted in new economic partnerships and promises to resolve territorial disagreements. This turn of events has left U.S. policymakers and experts wondering how this happened so quickly and where Duterte is ultimately leading Filipino foreign policy.
Earlier this year, U.S.-Philippines strategic cooperation appeared to be making progress towards increasing joint naval patrols, basing more U.S. troops in the Philippines, and military aid. U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter and his Filipino counterpart expressed their hopes that the relationship would continue to grow stronger. Manila had signed into law the Enhanced Defense and Cooperation Agreement, a document meant to build on earlier treaty agreements that addressed many of the Philippines’ previous concerns with a U.S. military presence. The Philippines appeared to be one of the few bright spots in the Obama administration’s pivot to Asia foreign policy strategy.
Once Filipino President Benigno Aquino passed the torch to Duterte on June 30th of this year, many believed he would maintain if not build on the work of his predecessor. Conventional wisdom suggested that, even though Duterte was not a fan of the U.S., the Philippines stood to gain from its alignment with the U.S. In the intervening months, Duterte has proven he has no intention of being conventional. In early August, he publicly insulted the U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines with a homophobic slur. A month later, he used equally colorful language when referring to President Barack Obama. He has called for an end to U.S.-Philippines joint naval patrols and military exercises, while demanding that U.S. Special Forces give up their counter-terrorism training activities and leave Mindanao. While the list of Western people and institutions cursed by Duterte continues to grow, Duterte also stated his desire to discuss improved relations and cooperation with China.
This culminated in Duterte’s state visit to China last week, where the tone of conversation between Duterte and Xi was congenial and constructive. Duterte hopes to attract Chinese infrastructure investment and improve trade ties, and Beijing is amiable to both. The U.S. for its part publicly supports the visit. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Russel expressed the U.S would remain a trusted ally and explained that stronger ties with China do not have to be at the expense of weaker ties with the U.S.
However, it is unclear how the U.S. can improve the relationship with such a reluctant head of state. While some experts suggest waiting out Duterte’s term, there are issues with this approach. Conor Cronin, a research associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) told The Cipher Brief: “… hunkering down doesn’t mean Washington can just ride out the Duterte storm and sweep back in after Duterte leaves office in 2022. Keeping the relationship warm means addressing some of the real concerns Filipinos have with the alliance.” The long duration of the U.S.-Philippines relationship means there are strong ties at many levels and in both the public and private sectors, and they should continue to be engaged despite the friction at the presidential level.
In between the tough, sometimes explicit language and the eventual walk back in Duterte’s pronouncements, there is the clear indication that he wants a more flexible, more distant relationship with the U.S. Yet it remains to be seen what this will look like as Duterte has not outlined or pursued any policy courses that would redefine the relationship. This leaves the U.S. in a position where it must hang on to the gains it has made and reiterate its commitments despite the outbursts that, in the words of U.S. State Department spokesperson John Kirby, leave us “baffled.”
Will Edwards is an international producer at The Cipher Brief. Follow him on Twitter @_wedwards.
