All this week, we will be breaking down global geography to bring you a closer look at the trends and what they mean. Today, we bring you the Trendline Report on Western Europe.
Western Europe
The United Kingdom served as the epicenter for Western European developments as the British Isle held a snap general election and hosted the meetings around NATO's 70th Anniversary. With Prime Minister Boris Johnson failing to pass a Brexit deal by the October 31 deadline, parliament voted on October 29 and 30 to hold a snap general election on December 12. Promising to push Britain’s European Union departure, Johnson’s Conservative Party won 365 of the 650 parliamentary seats. The conservative victory resulted in a small number of protests by leftists but was widely accepted by most Brits. Furthermore, the United Kingdom hosted the 70th NATO Anniversary meetings as diplomatic tensions emanating from allies Turkey and France dominated the conference’s conversation. Ankara, throughout the quarter, continued to move away from the interests of the alliance, most notably in Turkey’s incursion into Northern Syria and efforts to designate Kurdish fighters as a terrorist organization. French President Emmanuel Macron added to NATO insecurity, claiming the alliance is experiencing “brain death” in response the United States and European allies’ failure to cooperate on the Ankara issue.
Cipher Brief Expert Perspective
Nick Fishwick CMG retired in 2012 after nearly thirty years in the British Foreign Service. He did postings in Lagos, Istanbul and Kabul. His responsibilities in London included director of security and, after returning from Afghanistan in 2007, director for counter-terrorism. His final role was as director general for international operations. Fishwick also spent three years on a secondment to UK Customs, specialising in international drug enforcement and tax evasion issues.
Nick Fishwick, Former Senior Member, British Foreign Office
“From the British perspective the clear Conservative victory in the December 10 election means that the U.K. will definitely leave the European Union. Boris Johnson is a strong Atlanticist who will try to maintain close relations with European partners, as over Iran; his defeated opponent, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, had a long record of opposition to the US, NATO, Israel and the British nuclear deterrent. So, Mr. Johnson’s victory means a welcome continuity in British security policy.There have been some discouraging signs coming out of Ankara, but I would advise against viewing developments too bleakly. It has long been clear that President Erdogan has values that differ from those of most Americans and Europeans, but don’t underestimate how closely and deeply linked much of Turkish society, economy and culture remain to the west. Turkey will always see Kurdish independence as a red line and will always flirt with regional powers we deeply distrust. But it should remain a vital NATO partner.”
OSINT Global Headlines
United Kingdom: Snap General Election Results in Conservative Victory
- October 29-30: The British parliament passed the Early Parliamentary General Election Act of 2019 with a 438-20 vote in favor of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s motion. The snap election was scheduled for December 12 with all 650 parliamentary seats up for reelection. The Guardian The New York Times
- November 19: Prime Minister Boris Johnson and opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn competed in the first election debate. Associated Press
- November 29: Johnson suggested President Trump not get involved in the British election ahead of the NATO summit to be held in London the following week. Reuters
- December 12-13: The United Kingdom held its general election with 65 million citizens eligible to vote for all 650 seats in the British parliament. Johnson’s Conservative Party won 365 seats while opposition leader Corbyn’s Liberal Democrats claimed 203 parliamentary positions. Corbyn announced he would be stepping down as the Labor Party leader following the substantial defeat. BBC NBC News NPR The New York Times
- December 14: Anti-government protests erupted across London following the Conservative Party’s victory. Prime Minister Johnson plans to push Brexit through after regaining conservative control of the Parliament. BBC The Guardian
United Kingdom: France, Turkey Cause Diplomatic Unrest ahead of 70th NATO Anniversary meetings in London
- October 8-9: Turkey begins an offensive into Northern Syria, aiming to establish a zone of control to resettle Syrian refugees back in their home country. President Trump and NATO condemned the actions as Ankara emphasized the threats posed by Kurdish forces. BBC France 24
- November 7: French President Macron stated he believes NATO is experiencing “brain death,” concerned over the lack of cooperation between the United States and European allies regarding Turkey’s incursion into northern Syria. DW Euro News France 24 RFE/RL
- November 19: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced he would be meeting with French President Macron following Macron’s criticisms of the alliance. The best way to address any differences “is to sit down and discuss them and to fully understand the messages and the motivations,” Stoltenberg stated ahead of the meeting. DW
- November 26: Ankara announced Turkey will not allow consensus over Baltic security issues within NATO until other members of the alliance recognize Kurdish fighters as terrorists. DW Reuters
- December 2-5: NATO leaders met in London for meetings around the 70th Anniversary of NATO. Turkey’s President Erdogan said allies must back Ankara’s efforts in Syria, while France, Germany, the United States, and Britain reinforced the notion that no consensus has been reached on the issue. France 24 The New York Times RFE/RL Reuters
- December 8: Moscow’s defense minister said Russian-NATO relations are “degrading every day” following the conclusion of the NATO meetings in London. NATO leaders at the London meetings reinforced their commitment to mutual defense, naming Russia as a security threat to the alliance. RFE/RL
- December 12: The United States Senate passed a resolution recognizing the Armenian genocide, in another blow to Turkey’s standing within NATO. The legislation defined the Turkish campaign as, “the killing of an estimated 1,500,000 Armenians by the Ottoman Empire from 1915 to 1923.” Ankara maintains its actions do not constitute genocide. A Turkish official stated the congressional resolution is potentially damaging to Turkish-American relations. CNN France 24 The New York Times
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