Western Europe
Western Europe experienced its first case of COVID-19 in late January with Italy and Spain suffering the most from the outbreak with Spain passing China in the number of confirmed cases. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson himself contracted the virus in late March.
Militarily, the virus forced the reduction of U.S. EUCOM participation in the Europe-wide exercise, Defender Europe 2020 and France pulled its troops out of Iraq.
Cipher Brief Expert Take
Nick Fishwick, Former Senior Member, British Foreign Office
COVID-19 has sent Europe into a state of shock. Its greatest impact, across the continent but especially in Italy, then Spain, and now through the U.K., has been on health, economy/living standards and ways of life. But security officials will be thinking about how the virus affects security priorities and our ability to handle them. On March 30 Britain’s MI5 appointed a new Director General, Ken McCallum: he arrives at an interesting time.
TIMELINE
- January 28: The German Health Ministry confirmed three new cases of the coronavirus in Bavaria bringing the total to four. DW The Guardian
- February 25: The French government announced its second death from COVID-19. Al Jazeera
- February 26: Italy confirmed 400 cases of coronavirus, the largest outbreak in Europe. BBC CNN
- February 27: Italy’s Lombardy regional Governor Attilio Fontana announced self-quarantine after a member of his staff had been diagnosed with the coronavirus. Al Jazeera
- February 27: The United Kingdom confirmed 13 new cases of coronavirus. This brings the total number of cases in the UK to 36. ABC News BBC
- March 2: Italy’s death toll from the coronavirus rose to 52 with 1,835 confirmed cases. The Guardian Sky News
- March 3: Italy has the second highest number of coronavirus deaths with 79. Al Jazeera
- March 4: Italy’s COVID-19 fatalities continue to rise to 107. Al Jazeera BBC
- March 5: The United Kingdom announced its first death and 116 confirmed cases. BBC
- March 9: Italy issues nationwide quarantine. The New York Times The Wall Street Journal
- March 11: EUCOM decided to reduce U.S. participation in the Defender 2020 exercise in Europe due to the spread of coronavirus. Army Times
- March 13: Deaths in Italy rose 250 to a total of 1,266. France 24
- March 15: ISIS has advised its members to avoid Europe saying, “stay away from the land of the epidemic.” International Business Times Politico
- March 16: German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced the shutdown of non-essential businesses and religious gatherings. DW
- March 17: Germany moved the COVID-19 threat risk from moderate to high. There are 9,200 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 24 fatalities. DW
- March 17: The European Union announced its decision to ban travelers outside of the block for 30 days. BBC
- March 18: In France, six coronavirus patients were transferred to a military facility in order to ease the strain on hospitals. France 24 Reuters
- March 18: The German town Mitterteich is the first in the country to order a curfew. DW
- March 18: The Italian government announced the biggest COVID-19 death toll rise in 24 hours with 475 fatalities. That same day 300 Chinese intensive care doctors arrived in the country to help with treating patients. BBC The Guardian The Wall Street Journal
- March 19: Italy passed China in total coronavirus deaths with 427 more fatalities bringing the total to 3,405. BBC NBC News The Wall Street Journal
- March 21: Volkswagen announced it would contribute to combating the coronavirus by using 3D printing for the production of hospital ventilators. DW Reuters
- March 22: The death toll in France increased by 112 bringing the total coronavirus fatalities to 674 with over 16,000 cases. France 24 Reuters
- March 23: German Chancellor Angela Merkel tested negative to COVID-19. Al Jazeera Reuters
- March 23: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposed a three-week nationwide lockdown. Al Jazeera Independent
- March 24: The French government announced that the coronavirus death toll increased to 240 in 24 hours. The country has 22,300 confirmed coronavirus cases with 1,100 fatalities. France 24
- March 24: In Spain, the coronavirus death toll increased by 514 in a 24-hour window. There are approximately 40,000 cases and 2,696 fatalities. BBC
- March 25: Spanish officials announced COVID-19 fatalities have surpassed China. The country has 3,434 fatalities and 47,610 confirmed cases. Al Jazeera The Guardian
- March 25: The French government announced its suspension of anti-terrorism training operations in Iraq as troops are needed to help fight the coronavirus pandemic. The country has over 26,000 confirmed cases and more than 1,300 fatalities. Military Times
- March 26: U.S. Army Europe delivered medical supplies to northern Italy to assist with the pandemic. Army Times
- March 27: Europol has put out multiple warnings about con artists taking advantage of people by offering fake coronavirus medicine, tests, and masks. DW
- March 27: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson tested positive for coronavirus. BBC The New York Times
- March 30: German hospitals are facing shortages of masks, protective gowns, gloves, and other key materials. DW
- March 30: French health officials announced 418 new coronavirus fatalities, bringing the countries total to 3,024 with 44,550 total cases. France 24 Reuters
- March 30: The European People’s party (EPP) released a statement urging an extension for the Brexit transition period due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Financial Times The Guardian
- March 31: French President Emmanuel Macron announced the decision to increase production of masks and respirators to help the shortages among hospitals. France 24 Politico
- March 31: Spanish health authorities announced 849 more fatalities bringing the total to 8,189 and 94,417 confirmed cases, passing China in total cases. Al Jazeera
- March 31: UK officials announced a 27% increase of fatalities in 24 hours with 1,789 coronavirus deaths. Al Jazeera France 24
Central and Eastern Europe
This quarter, Russia continued to be a major actor in the region and abroad. Proposed constitutional changes reset President Vladimir Putin’s term at the end of his current tenure in 2024, allow him extend his presidency 12 more years.
Russia and Turkey continued to clash in Syria’s Idlib region. Russia also clashed with Belarus over oil sales, effectively cutting off oil for Belarus until an agreement could be reached.
In Turkey, the toll of the Syrian civil war came to a head when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan opened the nation’s borders allowing displaced Syrian refugees into EU nations as tensions continued with Russia.
TRENDING: Belarus: Oil Standoff with Russia
- January 3: Russian oil shipments to Belarus were halted after Russia and Belarus could not agree on terms for oil deliveries in 2020. Al Jazeera Reuters
- February 1: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo offers on behalf of the United States to provide 100% of Belarus’s oil and gas needs. ABC News BBC Reuters
- February 7: Belarus signs an agreement to begin buying crude oil from Russian refineries at prices set on the global market on February 9. Reuters RFE/RL
- March 23: Russia oil companies agree to begin selling oil to Belarusian refineries at $15.7 per ton, a $12 discount as oil market prices continue to fall. Reuters
TRENDING: Russia: New Constitution Allows Putin to Retain Power
- January 16: Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and cabinet resign as President Vladimir Putin proposes multiple constitutional changes that will allow him to extend his rule beyond his 2024 term limit. ABC News BBC CNN The New York Times The Wall Street Journal
- January 17: President Putin names Mikhail Mishustin as new Prime minister. Al Jazeera CNN DW The New York Times The Wall Street Journal
- January 20: President Putin sends his proposed constitutional amendments to parliament. He claims the changes will give more power to parliament and strengthen democracy. Global News RFE/RL
- March 10: President Vladimir Putin endorsed a proposal that would reset term limits allowing him to extend his presidency 12 more years after 2024. It was passed by the lower house of parliament shortly after. BBC The Guardian The New York Times
- March 11: Parliament’s upper house approved an amendment which will reset President Putin’s terms allowing him to run for president two more times. Reuters RFE/RL
- March 12: Protestors were detained in multiple Russian cities during or before rallies which protested President Putin’s constitution amendments. RFE/RL
- March 16: The constitutional court ruled that the proposed amendment, which will allow President Putin to run for two more consecutive terms, was legal according to the Russian constitution. The New York Times Reuters RFE/RL
- March 25: President Putin postpones the April 22 vote on the proposed constitutional amendments due to the country’s coronavirus outbreak. CNBC Reuters RFE/RL
Nick Fishwick, Former Senior Member, British Foreign Office
We are seeing more and more strains on the EU. A crisis has followed the renewed surge of migrants across the Turkish border into the EU, and COVID-19 has made the situation still more desperate. The EU is resisting the move of the Polish government to control its judiciary through a politically appointed disciplinary chamber. Viktor Orban in Hungary has assumed unprecedented powers, supposedly in response to COVID-19, which are a direct challenge to the EU’s values. Britain is now out of the EU, but the virus means that the transition period will have to be extended. Chancellor Merkel’s long fade out in Germany- she will not retire until 2021 - with no acknowledged successor has weakened the voice of the EU’s leading economy. The EU is still struggling to agree a coherent economic and financial response to COVID-19. There are challenging times for the EU.
TRENDING: Turkey: Tension Continue with Russia over Syria, Conflict Continues to Cause Migrant Pressure
- January 13: Turkish and Syrian heads of intelligence met in Moscow to discuss working together to combat the YPG despite the longstanding hostility between the two countries. The New York Times Reuters
- January 15: Turkey and Russia met to discuss establishing a secure zone in the Idlib province to serve as a shelter for displaced Syrians during the winter. Haaretz
- January 22: Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu criticized the EU for failing to uphold its portion of a refugee deal to provide aid for displaced Syrians in Turkey. DW
- February 7: Turkey’s military deploys more military vehicles into Idlib after Syrian forces seized control of Saraqeb. Al Jazeera Haaretz Reuters
- February 14: Russian and Turkish foreign ministers met to discuss tensions in Idlib after a Syrian offensive which resulted in Turkish casualties. Al Monitor The New York Times Reuters
- February 18: Turkey announced it will be sending more troops to the Idlib province and that it is ready to ensure Syrian forces pull out of the region. Reuters The New York Times
- February 24: Turkey and the UN began talks to increase aid and allow for more evacuations to displaced Syrians. Middle East Monitor Reuters
- February 28: Ankara announced that it will no longer stop Syrian refugees from reaching into Europe after over 30 Turkish soldiers were killed in a strike by Syrian forces in the northwest Idlib region. Al Jazeera BBC Haaretz
- March 3: U.S. officials announce that it will provide $100 million to the UN aid program to support displaced civilians in Syria. No military aid was promised at the time. Haaretz Middle East Eye Reuters The Wall Street Journal
- March 5: 1,000 police officers were deployed to the Greek border to prevent Greece from repelling refugees back into Turkey. Al Jazeera The Guardian
- March 8: President Erdogan ordered the Turkish coast guard to stop migrants from crossing into Greece from the Aegean Sea. Al Jazeera France 24
- March 12: Defense Minister Hulusi Akar announced that a ceasefire deal with Russia and Syria has been largely agreed upon. Al Jazeera Reuters U.S. News & World Report
- March 15: Turkish and Russian forces completed their first joint patrol on the M4 highway in Syria. The patrol was cut short by rebel and civilian protests. Al Jazeera Reuters RFE/RL
- March 17: President Ergodan met with French, German, and UK officials to discuss the Syrian conflict and the refugee crisis that came as a result. Al Jazeera DW The Guardian
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