The Cipher Brief’s Trend Line Report is brought to you in partnership with the University of Mississippi’s Center for Intelligence and Security Studies and our private sector partner, Primer AI.
Central and Eastern Europe
Russia remained the dominant force influencing Central and Eastern European events this quarter. Despite U.S. resistance, Moscow is well on its way to completing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline — a system of offshore natural gas pipelines from Russia to Germany. Russia and Ukraine made monumental steps toward normalizing relations in December when the leaders of the two countries met with the leaders of France and Germany in the Normandy format, agreeing to implement a “full and comprehensive” ceasefire and exchange all prisoners by year’s end. With the United States’ withdrawal from Syria, Turkey and Russia agreed to share control of the country’s northeastern region.
Cipher Brief Expert Perspective
Paul Kolbe is Director of The Intelligence Project at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Prior to this, Kolbe led BP’s Global Intelligence and Analysis team supporting threat warning, risk mitigation, and crisis response. Prior to joining BP, Kolbe served 25 years as an operations officer in the CIA. He was a member of the Senior Intelligence Service, and is a recipient of the Intelligence Medal of Merit and the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal. Mr. Kolbe served in Russia, the Balkans, Indonesia, East Germany, Zimbabwe, and Austria.
Paul Kolbe, Director, Intelligence Project, Harvard University's Belfer Center
"With the United States distracted by the impeachment of President Trump and the approaching 2020 Presidential Primaries, and Europe looking inward with Brexit, Russia continues its steady and patient strategy of exploiting wedge issues to advance its agenda in Eastern and Central Europe. On the economic front, the construction of the Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream gas pipelines highlights Russia's ability to advance dual-use energy projects which promise long running revenue streams, but also sets allies against each other. In Ukraine, Moldova, and increasingly in the Balkans, Russia retains the ability to dial violence up or down to suit the needs of the moment. Russia's recent political success in forging an alliance of convenience with Turkey in spite of fundamental differences must be mostly chalked up to U.S. and European inconsistency and missteps over Syria, Kurdish issues and refugees. Finally, Russia will continue its practice of directly and indirectly supporting extremist political agendas on the left and right, amplifying noise, discord and disunity. Absent a coherent and consistent campaign by the U.S and its allies to counter these activities, Russia will continue to enjoy success in advancing its western flank agenda."
Russia: Moscow Proceeds with Nord Stream 2 Project Despite U.S. Resistance
- October 3: Moscow announced it is ready to bypass Denmark and consider alternative routes for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project, if Denmark refuses to approve construction in Danish territory. Reuters
- October 30: Denmark granted Russia a permit to construct a section of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline on the Danish continental shelf southeast of Bornholm in the Baltic Sea. Associated Press The Washington Post
- November 8: Poland’s anti-monopoly authority imposed a $44 million fine on one of the five European firms responsible for financing the project. Reuters
- December 10: Congress passed a bill sanctioning companies involved in the Russian-sponsored gas pipelines: the Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream. RFE/RL
- December 21: AllSeas Group SA, a company that operates ships laying sections of the German-Russian pipeline, said it would halt operations on the Nord Stream 2 after President Trump approved sanctions targeting the project. The Kremlin stated the sanctions will not impede completion of the pipeline. Associated Press Bloomberg Reuters
- December 26: Russia's energy minister says, despite U.S. sanctions, Moscow will proceed to finish the Baltic Sea pipeline as Germany is dependent on imports for 92 percent of its gas needs. DW Reuters
Turkey: Ankara Increases Operations in Syria
- October 5: Turkey reinforced army units at the Syrian border hours after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared intent to launch a cross-border military operation against Kurdish militants in northeast Syria. Bloomberg Reuters
- October 9: Turkey launched offensive ground assaults and airstrikes against Kurdish fighters in northern Syria after U.S. troops withdrew from the area. CBS News The New York Times
- October 22: Russian and Turkish leaders made a deal to share control of Syria's northeast territory, allowing Turkey to maintain control of areas it pushed into launching its offensive into Syria earlier in October and giving Russian and Syrian troops to control the rest of the border. Presidents Putin and Erdogan also agreed that their troops will conduct joint patrols of the border. CBC The New York Times
- November 1: Turkey and Russia held their first round of joint patrols in Syria as part of a deal that forced Kurdish forces away from Turkey's border. Military Times Reuters
- December 23: President Erdogan urged Russia to stop the attacks in Syria's northwestern Idlib province saying Turkey could not handle the influx of refugees being forced to flee the Russian strikes. Al Jazeera CNN
Ukraine: Kiev and Moscow Strive to Normalize Relations
- October 1: President Volodymyr Zelensky and pro-Russia separatists signed an agreement accepting the Steinmeier Formula, a procedure for implementing the Minsk “accords,” and Putin’s main precondition to holding a summit in the “Normandy” format. Ukraine promised local elections will be held in separatist-controlled regions in eastern Ukraine and separatist leaders pledged to withdraw troops from two locations in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Bloomberg DW RFE/RL
- October 31: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg demanded that Russia end its support for separatists in eastern Ukraine and called on it to withdraw all Russian forces from Ukrainian territory and return three Ukrainian Navy vessels that were seized in the Kerch Strait off the coast of the Crimean Peninsula last year. Kyiv Post RFE/RL
- November 15: The leaders of France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine announced a meeting between the leaders of the four countries in the Normandy format to be held in Paris on December 9 in an attempt to advance efforts for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in eastern Ukraine. The New York Times Reuters
- December 9: Russian leader Vladimir Putin met Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky met in Paris to discuss measures to end conflict in the eastern Ukraine. The meeting resulting in the two countries agreeing to implement a “full and comprehensive” ceasefire and exchange all prisoners by the end of 2019. BBC CNBC
- December 18: Representatives of Ukraine, Russia, and the separatists failed to reach an “all for all” prisoner exchange agreement after several hours of tense talks in Minsk following a tentative agreement reached during Ukraine peace talks in Paris last week. Zelensky expected all 72 Ukrainian prisoners held by the separatists to return home before the year's end. Miami Herald Ukraine Today
- December 23: Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists agreed to a prisoner exchange to take place by the end of the year. Al Jazeera
The Cipher Brief’s OSINT Trend Line Report is brought to you in partnership with the University of Mississippi’s Center for Intelligence and Security Studies and our private sector partner, Primer AI
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