One Battle, But "Six Campaigns"

The good news: all signs point to a final attack on ISIS in Mosul by Iraqi forces and the American-led coalition. This struggle has received much media attention, and even presidential campaign play, and for good reason. Both quantitatively (size of coalition forces, size of the city and population) and qualitatively (symbolic significance of Mosul, where ISIS leader al Baghdadi announced his Caliphate; complicated diplomatic, political, and humanitarian concerns impacting the battle), more is at play here than in earlier battles against ISIS.

The (potentially) bad news: Mosul is much more than a bigger version of the recent battle to retake Fallujah. Aside from the fight itself and the “day after” struggles, there are four interlocking strategic elements in play: restoring American military credibility; definitively destroying ISIS; deterring Iran; and saving Iraq. Thus, six campaigns hinge on what is about to happen in Mosul.