I’m not surprised by Mr. Kim’s comments. When the Six Party Talks with North Korea commenced in 2003, North Korea’s principal representative to the Talks often mentioned that North Korea wanted nuclear weapons as a deterrent, never to be used for offensive purposes. They asked to be treated as we treated Pakistan, a country that has good relations with the U.S. The North Korean representative said North Korea wanted a good, normal relationship with the U.S., promising to be a good partner. with the U.S.
North Korea has consistently been told that the U.S. would never accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state. But with complete and verifiable denuclearization, North Korea would receive security assurances, sanctions relief, economic development assistance, to include the provision of Light Water Reactors for civilian purposes and eventual normalization of relations with the U.S. Mr. Kim’s father, Kim Jong il, seemingly accepted this U.S. offer and in September 2005, North Korea did agree to a Joint Statement committing North Korea to complete and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
That was 2005. The situation has changed profoundly over the past twenty years. North Korea now has a formidable arsenal of nuclear weapons; some estimates are between 50 and 60 nuclear warheads, reportedly with sufficient fissile material to annually produce 15 to 20 nuclear warheads that can be miniaturized and mated to ballistic missiles.
North Korea’s sixth nuclear test in 2017 was assessed to be a test of a thermonuclear weapon. And in 2024, North Korea successfully launched the Hwasong/19, a mobile, solid fuel ballistic missile capable of targeting the whole of the U.S. In addition to advances in nuclear weaponization and ballistic missiles, North Korea has made significant progress with Hypersonic and cruise missiles and advances with its nuclear submarine program.
Of note is North Korea’s new mutual defense treaty with the Russian Federation and the 12,000 combat troops North Korea sent to Russia for its war with Ukraine. In addition to the troops, North Korea has provided Russia with large quantities of artillery shells and ballistic missiles. In exchange, Russia has provided North Korea with considerable technical support for its satellite and nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
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We are now dealing with a different North Korea. Mr. Kim is more self-confident, given his new relationship with Russia and his continued close allied relationship with China. Having two of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council ensures that North Korea no longer must be concerned with UN sanctions. And the pictures of Mr. Kim at the parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two in Beijing, standing next to China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, gave Mr. Kim significant international credibility, especially with the Global South.
A meeting of President Trump with Chairman Kim could develop into a series of meetings that could result in North Korea halting the further production of fissile material for nuclear weapons, with no additional nuclear tests and a moratorium on ballistic missile launches. This would be a major success for Mr. Trump and the U.S. It would also lessen tension with South Korea and Japan.
The “eventual” U.S. goal should continue to be complete and verifiable denuclearization. However, this doesn’t have to be up front. It’s an eventual goal that should be pursued as relations with North Korea improve, with an action-for action process: As North Korea halts the production of fissile material and stops producing more nuclear weapons and refrains from ballistic missile launches, UN sanctions imposed subsequent to 2016 could be lifted with security assurances and economic development assistance and a discussion of liaison offices in our respective capitals. North Korea should be encouraged to rejoin the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons (NPT).
Mr. Trump entering talks with Mr. Kim could develop into a relationship with North Korea that could prove beneficial for the U.S. and its allies and partners.
This column by Cipher Brief Expert Joseph Detrani was first published in The Washington Times.
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