Expert Q&A: North Korea and Russia – ‘Fighting and Dying’ Together

By Daniel Hoffman

Hoffman served as a three-time station chief and a senior executive clandestine service officer with assignments included tours of duty in the former Soviet Union, Europe, and war zones in the Middle East and South Asia. Hoffman also served as director of the CIA's Middle East and North Africa Division. He is currently a national security analyst with Fox News.

EXPERT Q&A — Western officials report that of the estimated 11,000 North Korean troops sent to fight in Russia’s western Kursk region, 4,000 have already been killed, wounded, missing or captured — a casualty or attrition rate of nearly 40%. Among those are the North Korean soldiers captured by Ukrainian forces on January 11 — troops who were taken alive, despite the North Koreans’ reported propensity to commit suicide rather than surrender. It is unclear when, or whether, Pyongyang will send more soldiers to fight in Russia’s war against Ukraine. 

North Korea’s entry into the Ukraine war was among the one of the biggest geopolitical surprises in 2024 – at once a demonstration of the threat posed by North Korea, the burgeoning relationship between Pyongyang and Moscow, and a reflection of the Russian need for more troops to fight its own wars.

The Cipher Brief turned to former Senior CIA Officer Daniel Hoffman to discuss the significance of the capture of North Korean soldiers, and the wider question of what the presence of North Korean troops on the battlefield means for Pyongyang’s relationship with Russia. 

“[Russian President Vladimir] Putin needs cannon fodder,” Hoffman said, “but Putin also wants to demonstrate for the world to see that Russia’s ally is North Korea. Nothing says we are allied like fighting and dying on the battlefield together.”

Hoffman spoke with Cipher Brief Writer Ethan Masucol. Their conversation has been edited for length and clarity. 


Masucol: Is there an intelligence opportunity with the Ukrainian capture of North Korean soldiers?

Hoffman: I am not really sure that it’s all that significant in terms of whatever intelligence you’re going to gather from POWs. At the tactical level, I’m not really sure that it matters. I don’t think it matters a lot to the battle, to the battlefield. I don’t think it’s going to change the course of the war or anything like that. There are other implications for sure, at the higher strategic level between Russia and North Korea and Russia and the West, but that’s different.

Let’s see what intelligence, if any, that the Ukrainians are able to gather. My guess is that they’ll gather the regular sort of tactical intelligence that you gain from POWs, which was their specific tasks on the battlefield on behalf of the invading Russian Army. But specific to North Korea, their capabilities? No, I don’t think so. It’s more the other way around – that North Korea is embedding themselves with Russian units so that North Korea can conduct war operations for the first time in generations and that they can learn from it. Now, make no mistake: this is a pretty incredible, extraordinary shift where you’ve got North Koreans fighting in Europe. But again, that’s at the strategic level, not the tactical level.

The bigger picture for the U.S. intelligence community is: Why did Vladimir Putin want to do this? And what does he hope to gain? What’s the quid pro quo? What is he going to agree to do for North Korea? Those are the bigger geopolitical strategic issues for that. Putin needs cannon fodder because all of their tactics are just to rush Ukraine and sacrifice their infantry in the process. But Putin also wants to demonstrate for the world to see that Russia’s ally is North Korea. And North Korea, as we all know, has nuclear weapons and they’ve got a capability that they’re building out to strike the U.S. homeland. And Putin considers that leverage. Nothing says we are allied like fighting and dying on the battlefield together.

There’s a price to be paid for that, so [Putin is] giving North Korea oil and food and access to Russian satellite technology. Remember that [North Korean leader] Kim Jong-un met with Putin at a space facility when he visited Russia. North Korea wants to miniaturize nuclear weapons, put them on warheads, and be able to strike the U.S. homeland. So that’s all of value to them. And Putin wants to raise the U.S. costs of having to deal with various crises all over the world — North Korea’s nuclear program being one of them. Those are the things that we want to be collecting on.

It doesn’t matter to Kim Jong-Un or to Putin how many North Koreans die in Ukraine. Really, the fact that they are dying is certainly an opportunity for Kim Jong-Un to say, Hey, my guys are dying. Give me some more of that satellite technology. Share with me your intelligence on the United States. Remember that Vladimir Putin’s currency when he is trading with other nations is oil, natural resources and technology and intelligence. Russia runs a really effective global intelligence collection operation. And when they collect on their main enemy of the United States, that’s currency that they offer up their allies, like North Korea.

Masucol: So what is the bigger picture on North Korea’s involvement in the Ukraine war?

Hoffman: It’s certainly one of the unexpected results of Russia’s barbaric invasion of Ukraine that you’ve now got this new axis of dictatorships—Russia, Iran, North Korea and China—working together. They have intertwined economically, diplomatically, and militarily like they’ve never been before. And this is an outgrowth, and I would say an unexpected outgrowth of [the Ukraine war]. 

Remember, Russia was a part of pressuring North Korea to come to the table and negotiate on their nuclear weapons holdings and arsenal. That’s not happening anymore. Putin is now coming hat in hand begging for help and support from these three countries. And they’re not going to strike unfavorable deals for themselves. They’re going to want something significant in return for whatever assistance they provide.

It’s all intertwined. North Korea is a high priority for us, and Putin will seek to solve international problems of mutual interest by meeting one-on-one with Trump. And this is just another one of those issues that Putin is going to try to use as leverage. He’ll say to Trump, Well, if you want to do something on North Korea, sure, but here’s what I need from you. That’s the additional challenge that this administration is going to face. 

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.  Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field?  Send it to [email protected] for publication consideration.

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