The Cipher Brief: First Paris, then San Bernardino, then Brussels. How widespread are Islamic State networks in Europe, and can we expect these kind of attacks to continue?
Quite clearly the recent history of attacks, certainly those in Paris and Brussels, shows a very substantial increase in threats linked more or less exclusively to the Islamic State (IS). The threats are linked to IS’s control of resources and territory in Iraq and Syria and its clear, stated intention of developing an attack capability in Europe and the United States. Almost inevitably, therefore, there will be groups developing attack capabilities that are varied, linked into central planning in Syria, and carried out by adherents and sympathizers in European capitals and the United States. And these threats will be linked to the large scale movement of people, particularly around Europe. The Paris attacks showed that all of these factors applied. What matters, then, is the real operational capability of each individual group, and knowing that is a matter of acquiring detailed information. There’s been a marked increase, sadly, in the threat, and it has to be taken extremely seriously.
TCB: What do you make of reports that these are sophisticated explosives using TAPT (triacetone triperodoxide) and showing all the hallmarks of the same bombmaker?
I would expect it to take some time for a clear definition of the explosives used and for the identity of the bomb maker to become clear. So it seems to me to be quite early on to be reaching a judgment on that. It’s difficult to say more from the outside.
TCB: Will attacks on this scale change the way of life in Europe in terms of conducting business, travel, personal security, and so forth?
On the one hand, one might think so. It has been the subject of quite a bit of comment. On the other hand, previous experience in previous years shows it doesn’t necessarily have that effect. The key issues with attacks of this scale and regularity is the degree to which the security authorities are able to adapt to the new threat or changing threat, and whether they can gain some kind of control or show they can control the situation. What is damaging is when a feeling develops that a violent terrorist threat is not under control, and therefore, can occur at any time and take [a country or populace] by surprise. So it all comes back to the effectiveness of the security apparatus in the countries’ concerned and the people’s confidence in them.
TCB: What would you tell your Prime Minister about the threat to the United Kingdom and Europe in the wake of the attacks, and what are the next steps in preventing attacks?
Well, sadly—and I’m not saying anything you don’t already know—there is a very serious threat, and attacks could come at any time. Nobody is in a position, or could hope to be in a position, to say anything else under the circumstances. And clearly, an effective response will depend upon good and insightful intelligence, both information obtained and analysis of data, that comes in various ways. An effective response will also require the most efficient, skillful sharing of relevant information in Europe and internationally with the governments and authorities concerned. Quite clearly, this is a multinational threat and has to be dealt with in that way. There is nothing fundamentally new about that, it’s the experience we’ve been having for many years.
TCB: Will these attacks spur greater cooperation on counterterrorism in Europe and with the United States.
There already is very extensive and deep cooperation and sharing of intelligence as well as mutual support. It’s important that people understand that very, very extensive sharing and cooperation structures already exist and have been built up over many years. Of course, it can always get better. No doubt, deficiencies could be highlighted. So it is quite easy for commentators to say we need to learn to share intelligence better between agencies and between countries. Fine. But you have to know it already actually happens. There is no perfect defense against such a threat. At the same time a great deal of knowledge and skill has been developed over the years, and a great deal of the threat has been disrupted and prevented.
We face a higher degree of threat, that is clear. Obviously, it's a big worry. But experience shows we can get on top of these things, respond to them and achieve a level of success. There is no need to be defeatist. It's important to keep calm and rational.
