Network Take: ‘Good News’ Lurks Beneath Saudi Shakeup

By Norman T. Roule

Norman Roule is a geopolitical and energy consultant who served for 34 years in the Central Intelligence Agency, managing numerous programs relating to Iran and the Middle East. As NIM-I at ODNI, he was responsible for all aspects of national intelligence policy related to Iran, including IC engagement with senior policymakers in the National Security Council and the Department of State.

On Saturday, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the arrests of dozens of ministers and other members of Riyadh’s elite, as part of a broader effort to ostensibly crackdown on corruption. Veteran Saudi/Mideast intelligence officer and Cipher Brief expert Norman Roule offered a more positive take than other network experts, in conversation with The Cipher Brief’s Executive Editor Kim Dozier.

The toughest part of an analyst’s job is to look past a simple description of the problem and identify opportunities for policymakers. Much of the commentary on events in the Kingdom focus on the risks associated with the weekend’s developments. This is prudent, but I think we need to look beyond these events as only the consolidation of power by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. We should also view this as a bold attempt at national redefinition by the Saudi King and Crown Prince. The issue now is how our engagement with the Saudis can encourage the positive aspects of this process.

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