Modest Expectations

Posted: April 8th, 2016

By Steven Pifer

Steven Pifer is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, where he focuses on arms control, Ukraine, and Russia. A retired Foreign Service officer, his more than 25 years with the State Department included assignments as deputy assistant secretary of state with responsibilities for Russia and Ukraine, U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, and special assistant to the president and senior director for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia on the National Security Council.

The Pentagon today is paying greater attention to Russia as a security threat. That reflects several factors: Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, its bellicose rhetoric, and the modernization of its military. As the United States prepares to modernize its own nuclear forces, arms control could play an important role in stabilizing the relationship between Washington and Moscow. But expectations should be kept modest, given the troubled political atmospherics and the two countries’ differing approaches on arms control.

The West-Russia relationship has declined to its lowest point in many years. Moscow used military force to illegally seize Crimea in 2014 and then supported armed separatism in eastern Ukraine. The Kremlin has taken a more threatening stance in general toward the West, for example, frequently flying nuclear-capable Bear bombers near the air space of NATO members. This takes place against the backdrop of a major Russian investment to modernize its nuclear forces.

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