The Cipher Brief: First Paris, then San Bernardino, now Brussels. How widespread are ISIS networks in Europe and North America and can we expect these kinds of attacks on a regular basis?
Mitch Silber: We need to make a distinction when we talk about ISIS networks. There are ISIS wannabe networks, which generally are in the United States. They are primarily comprised of those aspiring jihadists who actually haven’t traveled to Syria and Iraq and at best are in communications with ISIS followers via twitter and are really more fan boys of ISIS, but they nevertheless can be deadly. And then there are those who have actually traveled to the war zones and have been trained and indoctrinated. Europe clearly has many more, broader and deeper networks for the latter. Belgium, France, Germany, and the UK probably have the biggest and strongest networks.
TCB: What is your assessment of the current threat to the U.S.?
MS: There is a certain level of threat to the U.S. by ISIS inspired attackers. We saw it in San Bernardino. In a sense, the Boston Marathon attack was an al Qaeda inspired attack. The scope, scale, and sophistication tend to be all on a lesser grade than someone who has actually trained with and traveled to meet ISIS or al Qaeda. Those types of operatives would make for a much more sophisticated attack.
And,there is no doubt about it—ISIS and al Qaeda have the intention to send operatives to the U.S. The question is, do they have the capability to get them into the United States? With the proliferation of European foreign fighters, who carry British, French and German passports, the job of thwarting potential operatives at the border by intelligence and border agencies becomes much more challenging.
TCB: What are the challenges to detecting these terrorist networks?
MS: In the U.S., since so few people have traveled to Syria and Iraq, it’s really trying to be able to predict who is an ISIS fan boy and is going to stay at that level, and who is actually going to turn to violence. That’s a very difficult thing to be able to determine by law enforcement and intelligence. There are two components to the job, first detecting them and then determining what their trajectory is going to be.
In Europe, it’s much more difficult, because it’s a volume issue and a resource allocation issue. Belgium is overwhelmed. They don’t have the counterterrorism resources to track and monitor all the different people who are ISIS associates. Neither does France. They need robust groups of civilian intelligence analysts partnered with investigators to be able to do that, and those countries have not made the investments over the last few years to have those capabilities in their intelligence community. Moreover, HUMINT, or human intelligence, takes time to develop, and it does not seem like the Belgian security services had adequate assets arrayed in Brussels.
TCB: Europe has been criticized for not sharing CT-related intelligence. In light of these events, will this spur greater cooperation on counterterrorism within Europe—and with the U.S.?
MS: Everyone talks about sharing information, and it’s usually about trading information. A lot of the countries in Europe are going to be hamstrung by the fact that they’ll trade information with one partner, but they are wary of sharing it with the rest of the members of the EU. Belgium and France have been exchanging a great deal of information in the wake of Paris. That’s not EU-wide though. In every one of those relationships, even though they are all in the EU, there is a bilateral element to the intelligence sharing.
TCB: Once again airports appear to be a target. What more can be done to protect airports?
MS: It’s very difficult. Really, the only country that does this well—and the scale is so much smaller—is Israel, where in a sense, you get vetted to even come into the actual airport facility. Whether you are coming in by car or another means, there is a process by which there is some type of check on you before you come onto the grounds of the airport. Europe has so many airports that are serviced by mass transit, plus vehicles, it’s impossible to check. It’s similar to the U.S. Maybe the best thing that can be done is to have some type of vetting of people before they actually come into the terminal or before they get into areas that are really crowded.
TCB: What factors would signal to investigators that this is specifically a coordinated ISIS attack? What do you make of reports that these are sophisticated explosives using TAPT (triacetone triperoxide) and showing all the hallmarks of the same bomb maker?
MS: ISIS has claimed responsibility through their traditional media mechanism. That is probably the most definitive element in determining if this is ISIS. In terms of tactics, it’s hard to see where ISIS tactics begin and al Qaeda’s end. Sending multiple suicide bombers to a metro station, that sounds a lot like al Qaeda’s usual plan of action when they were more robust. The idea of the airports could have gone either way. What would have been more of a trademark of ISIS is having a mix of suicide bombers, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and armed gunmen, but this attack didn’t look like that.
TCB: What are some of the trends we may see from law enforcement moving forward as they seek to crack down on terrorist cells in their countries?
MS: If you don’t have significant intelligence or you need intelligence in a pinch, raids are going to be one of the best ways to do it. It gives you the initiative, it puts the terrorists back on their heels, and it allows you to collect information rapidly. I think you are going to see more raids in Belgium, more raids in France, and I would look closely at the UK and Germany as two of the next places where you will see a faster, more robust operational tempo.
TCB: Was there any specific reason Belgium could have been chosen as the target?
MS: Belgium has so many foreign fighters per capita, they’ve done a poor job of integrating foreigners, and Belgium itself is a bit of a strange political entity, essentially shared between the French/Walloon and the Dutch/Flemish in its position between those two countries. So it’s dysfunctional in some ways. And the fact is, it has allowed itself to become a safe haven for jihadists and wannabe jihadists.
