Jordan’s past experience battling al-Qaeda in Iraq has prepared it for its ongoing offensive against ISIS, explained Dr. Musa Keilani to The Cipher Brief. A former Jordanian Ambassador to Bahrain, Dr. Keilani said that there is popular support in Jordan for airstrikes targeting ISIS and that Jordan has “played a big role in promoting stability in the region.”
The Cipher Brief: Since the emergence of ISIS, how have Jordan, Egypt—and possibly Turkey, Israel, and Saudi Arabia—cooperated to combat the threats posed by ISIS and Iran? Has there been an increase in military sales, intelligence sharing, defense cooperation, etc.?
Musa Keilani: Jordan has cooperated extensively with the Saudi authorities to combat ISIS (Daesh) at more than one level. In the Syrian theatre, some of the armed Syrian militia received funding from Riyadh, and have managed to fight Daesh as well as the Syrian government forces simultaneously. Amman is a strategic center for coordination in this respect, though officially, Jordanian spokesmen deny any direct involvement in the daily confrontations there. But Jordan has maintained a degree of coordination with both Moscow and Washington regarding the purchase of modern radar and terrain scanning equipment to patrol the Iraqi desert in areas adjacent to what Daesh controls.
TCB: Jordan is one of the few countries in the region that seems to have kept the ISIS threat at bay. How has the security situation in Jordan changed since the rise of ISIS? What’s your assessment of the ISIS threat in Jordan?
MK: ISIS is the fourth generation clone of al-Qaeda, which Jordan had confronted in the 1990s and managed to defeat completely in 2005. The current leaders of Daesh are the disciples of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian, who was killed by a Jordanian special operations squad in Iraq. The ideological leader of Daesh was Abdullah Azzam, another Jordanian, who was killed by a car explosion in Pakistan some years ago. So Jordan has a rich experience on how to handle ISIS as it had dealt with an earlier version of the Jihadi Salafi extremists. The security situation in the country is strong enough to neutralize the threat of ISIS, though it has not been totally eradicated. Some younger generation Jordanians who are alienated, frustrated, and unemployed have become trapped by the social media contacts from ISIS groups, which excel in electronic indoctrination.
TCB: Jordan appears to be taking a more active role in combatting ISIS. How do you view Jordan’s role in promoting stability in the Middle East? What are the risks to Jordan of getting more involved in the fight against ISIS?
MK: Jordan has intensified its role in combating ISIS since January 2015 when ISIS burned to death Jordanian air force pilot, Muaz Al Kasasbeh, whose F-16 plane crashed over Raqqa, Syria. Jordan is part of a U.S.-led alliance to fight Daesh. Daesh’s website Aamaq and its magazine publication Dabegh target Jordan more than they do Washington. Amman has spearheaded the fight against ISIS since the group’s early formative years in Iraq years ago. Jordan is in a very strong position to cope with all of the risks that might result from getting more involved in fighting Daesh, both militarily and ideologically. There is popular support for a move against ISIS, particularly following the heinous burning to death of the Jordanian air force pilot.
Jordan has played a big role in promoting stability in the region, which could have included Israel had not the Palestinian-Israeli daily killings hampered a more visible role for Israel to play. Yet, having Iranian Revolutionary Guards fighters in the Syrian Golan villages, adjacent to Jordanian and Israeli military border fortifications, might result in some sort of coordination between the two countries.
TCB: How is Jordan coping with the influx of Syrian refugees? How would you compare Jordan’s handling of the refugee crisis to other countries in the region?
MK: In the long run, Jordan cannot cope with the Syrian refugees since they have increased the unemployment rate among Jordanians to a very dangerous level—more than the people can cope with. Refugee numbers constitute more than
20 percent of the population. The London donors conference,” Supporting Syria and the Region,” was a great disappointment to many Jordanians who feel as though they have been punished by the influx of refugees, despite the fact that Jordan played no role in fomenting the troubles in Daraa or Homs, the two flash points of the anti-Syrian regime riots.
Turkey, with its population and vibrant economy, can cope with its three million Syrian refugees. The same goes for Lebanon. But Jordan, with its debt of $36 billion and high unemployment rate, cannot afford to.
TCB: Do you see the current regional turmoil as an opportunity for countries in the region to improve relations with one another?
MK: The current turmoil in the region has worsened relations among the Arab countries. The Iranian intervention in Syria and the Russian daily bombardment of Aleppo and Homs has created a big feud between Saudi Arabia and Tehran. The Yemeni war led to more polarization among regional and Gulf countries. Turkish-Iranian relations are at the lowest ebb. Even in Arab North African countries, we see the divide is widening. Israel wasted a golden opportunity of rapprochement with some Arab countries due to the continuation of daily killings in Jerusalem.
