For this last week of 2017, we asked our experts to look back on key topics for this year, and predict what they see for the year ahead. Cipher Brief expert, CIA veteran and Russia hand Steve Hall looks ahead to U.S. relations with Moscow, as Russia gears up for its celebration of Christmas in early January.
On Russia in Syria:
“Well, I think it’s paid off very well for [Russian President] Vladimir Putin. Prior to the Trump administration, he managed to create a situation where it was virtually impossible for the conflict to improve for the Syrians without consulting Russia. And this is, of course, what Putin loves to do: put himself in a position so that to solve any problem, you have to go through him to do it. It’s a new foothold for Putin and for Russia in the Middle East.
On Russian information warfare and election interference in the West:
“I think it’s most useful to look at Russia’s active measures campaign that attacked our democracy and our elections last year as a win-lose tally for Putin. There’s a lot in the “win” column. Certainly, he achieved the primary goal of destabilizing, dividing, causing doubt in the institutions here in the United States. Look where we are now: we’ve got people questioning our electoral process, of course we’re extremely polarized, and Russia and Putin have taken advantage of all those pre-existing fault lines that the U.S. has.
“But like any active measures campaign, it’s an organic thing. You start out with goals: let’s attack American democracy, let’s increase the likelihood [President] Donald Trump will become president, and decrease the chances that Hillary Clinton is going to win. Then, if you’re running one of these operations, opportunities arise, setbacks occur, and you just kind of have to roll with those.
“There have been some “losses” for Russia as well. President Trump is no longer able to really enact any of those policies he was talking about when he was Candidate Trump. Maybe NATO is not so important anymore, and sanctions and so forth he’s politically no longer able to lift. That’s not what Russia was hoping for. But overall, I think it’s been a real win for Russia….
“As Putin looks back on this year, he’ll see it as a good year for him. The thing that he fears most—the spread of democracy and specifically Western liberal democracy—has become confused and splintered because of his actions. That’s serious return-on-investment for him.”
For podcast host Brian Garrett-Glaser’s full discussion with Steve Hall, check out Tuesday’s episode of The Cipher Brief Daily Podcast – either on iTunes, or here on our website (updated Tuesday morning).
To read one of our earlier, in-depth takes on the Russian disinformation issue, click here.
