June Risk Assessment: The Fight Against ISIS in Libya

Libya’s UN-brokered Government of National Unity (GNA) has so far failed to unite the country’s competing regional and tribal factions and, by early June, the body faced heavy criticism from Libyans across the country due to the escalating currency crisis, the rapid collapse of public services, and the continuing tug-of war over who holds legitimate control over Libya’s key institutions.

The House of Representatives (HoR) has still not ratified the GNA as Libya’s legitimate government and, against the backdrop of a political stand-off over who should have supreme command of the Libyan army (the GNA or General Haftar, head of the so-called Libyan National Army),  the  relative success of GNA-allied forces in driving back Islamic State (ISIS) forces around Sirte in late May could paradoxically lead to increased tensions between rival blocs and militias, meaning an uptick in violence and instability as power structures are realigned. Most crucially, Libya is poised for a revenge attack by ISIS to divert attention from its territorial losses. This is the pattern that has been set in Iraq and there is no reason why it should not hold in Libya as well.