Report for Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Report for Wednesday, May 28, 2025

In Canada, King Charles says ‘the true north is indeed strong and free

For peace in Ukraine, Putin wants a pledge to halt NATO enlargement, sources say

Merz under fire over ‘contradictory’ remarks on long-range weapons for Ukraine

As Trump Seeks Iran Deal, Israel Again Raises Possible Strikes on Nuclear Sites

China introduces rules to protect military-industrial assets from spies and sabotage

US is weighing the future of military command in Africa, top general says

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

The Trump AI Deals in the Gulf: Measuring the Value Against the Security Concerns. Janet Egan, Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), and Georgia Adamson, Research Associate at the CSIS Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, discussed the Trump administration’s AI deals with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Egan voiced concern over the export of advanced U.S. chips to authoritarian states, warning of risks including export diversion, cloud-based access by adversaries such as China, and the potential loss of U.S. data center dominance. She emphasized the need for strong know-your-customer protocols, chip tracking, and export controls. Adamson noted the UAE’s serious AI ambitions and close ties with China, raising national security concerns about U.S. tech infrastructure being developed abroad. While she acknowledged the presence of strong security controls in UAE data centers, she questioned whether the U.S. has sufficient capacity to verify enforcement. Both experts agreed that while such deals may serve strategic goals, they require strict oversight and safeguards. The Cipher Brief

As U.S. Commitment Wanes, Europe Faces Questions About Its Own Defense. Retired General Philip Breedlove, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, warns that as U.S. support for NATO wavers, Europe faces critical questions about its ability to defend itself. While Russia's military has been badly degraded—losing hundreds of thousands of troops and suffering logistical and technological losses—Europe still depends heavily on the U.S. for advanced capabilities, including aerial transport, stealth strike capacity, and intelligence infrastructure. Breedlove emphasized that deterrence relies not only on military capacity but also on credibility, which he says the West currently lacks. European nations, particularly Poland and the Baltic states, are taking bold steps, like exiting landmine treaties and requesting U.S. nuclear weapons, amid doubts about American reliability. Breedlove praised Poland, Finland, and Romania as new regional anchors but stressed that complete independence from U.S. military support would take decades and immense investment. He concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin exploits Western weakness, especially outside NATO territory and in hybrid warfare domains. The Cipher Brief

Opinion: Where are the Sage Advisors When You Need Them? Veteran journalist Walter Pincus reflects on former Defense Secretary Robert Gates' interview with CBS News’ Face the Nation, which aired on May 18. He laments the absence of experienced, steady advisors in President Trump’s inner circle. Pincus highlights Gates’ nuanced understanding of national security, from Pentagon staffing practices to strategic military readiness. Gates warns against purging young talent, stresses the need for a credible and diverse military, and criticizes Congress for failing to pass timely defense budgets. He warns about China’s naval and territorial ambitions, as well as Russia’s imperial goals, particularly in Ukraine. While Gates is optimistic about U.S. engagement in a reforming Middle East, he says, “it would be very difficult for any U.S. president” to cut off military supplies to Israel. Pincus ends by questioning whether anyone close to Trump today possesses Gates’ depth, judgment, or the courage to offer difficult but essential truths. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS

In Canada, King Charles says ‘the true north is indeed strong and free.’ During a high-profile visit to Canada, King Charles III delivered a symbolic and politically sensitive speech from the throne in Ottawa on Tuesday, widely viewed as a rebuke to U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to annex Canada as the “51st state.” Invited by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Charles emphasized Canadian sovereignty, unity, and resilience, declaring “the true north is indeed strong and free.” Though the king avoided naming Trump directly, the speech referenced “unprecedented” global challenges and Canada’s shifting alliances. His visit included ceremonial gestures underscoring support for Canada’s identity, from wearing Canadian symbols to meeting with Indigenous leaders. The trip highlighted the monarchy’s soft power role in affirming sovereignty amid diplomatic strain with the U.S. While the Canadian public remains ambivalent about the monarchy, recent polls show a modest boost in royal support. Trump, meanwhile, reignited tensions by suggesting Canada could avoid defense costs by becoming a U.S. state. Washington PostAssociated PressWall Street JournalPolitico

‘Golden Dome’ will be free for Canada if it becomes the 51st U.S. state, says Trump. President Donald Trump on Tuesday claimed that Canada was considering his proposal to pay $61 billion for the "Golden Dome" missile defense system, instead of paying nothing if it joined the U.S. as the 51st state. This followed Prime Minister Mark Carney’s announcement of plans to strengthen military ties with the European Union. Carney dismissed Trump’s idea of annexation, stressing that Ottawa would remain independent and was not interested in statehood. King Charles III, in a speech to Canada’s Parliament, praised the country’s confidence and independence, subtly criticizing U.S. policy. Carney highlighted that a significant portion of Canada’s defense spending benefits the U.S., suggesting a shift toward European partnerships. However, he admitted that Canadian officials were exploring Trump’s defense proposal. Axios The Hill

Carney Says Canada and U.S. Are in Talks on a New Economic and Security Deal. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed that Canada and the U.S. are engaged in intensive negotiations for a new economic and security deal to replace the current trade pact. Speaking to CBC on Tuesday, Carney said he aims to reach an agreement within months to remove the 25% tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on Canadian goods, including steel and aluminum. Canada has retaliated with tariffs on $43 billion in U.S. imports but offered sector-specific exemptions. Carney emphasized the importance of preserving North American auto sector integration to stay competitive globally. Wall Street Journal

U.S. startup Hermeus completes first flight of Quarterhorse high-speed aircraft. Hermeus, an American startup developing high-speed aircraft, successfully conducted the first flight of its Quarterhorse Mk 1 vehicle on May 21 at Edwards Air Force Base in California. This marks a major step towards the company’s goal of achieving near-Mach 5 speeds by 2026. The test validated the vehicle’s takeoff and landing capabilities, with data from this flight feeding into the development of the Mk 2 prototype, scheduled to fly supersonic by year-end. Hermeus’ approach involves building multiple prototypes rapidly to accelerate technical progress and team development. The company, backed by venture capital and U.S. defense contracts, aims to supply hypersonic platforms for both defense and commercial use. Hypersonic aircraft, capable of flying at Mach 5 or higher, are a focus of U.S. defense programs. Hermeus anticipates supporting Department of Defense testing with its Mk 3 vehicle starting in 2026. Defense NewsThe Aviationist

Hegseth Imposes Fresh Limits on Reporter Access to the Pentagon. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has unveiled new restrictions on journalists covering the Pentagon, citing the need to protect classified national intelligence and protect the “lives of U.S. Service members.” Reporters must now complete a form outlining their responsibilities to safeguard sensitive information and be escorted by credentialed staff within large areas of the building. Hegseth has frequently criticized the media, calling it “fake news” and accusing reporters of pushing anonymous leaks. His move follows recent controversies, including his sharing of attack details on an unsecured platform and the removal of major outlets from Pentagon office space. The Pentagon Press Association condemned the new rules as a direct threat to press freedom, while Pentagon officials argue the restrictions balance transparency with necessary security. Reporters warn they will limit public knowledge of military activities. Bloomberg

Trump halts student visa interviews and mulls social media vetting for applicants. The Trump administration is pausing student visa interviews and weighing social media vetting for visa applicants, marking a sharp escalation of its immigration crackdown. The State Department, under Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on Tuesday ordered U.S. embassies to halt new student visa interviews. While the administration has already been monitoring immigrants' social media, the new policy would apply to all student visa applicants, not just those linked to activism. Since March, social media checks have focused on pro-Palestinian posts, raising concerns about the targeting of critics of Israel's war in Gaza. This move comes amid the administration’s broader pressure on universities like Harvard and Columbia, accusing them of harboring antisemitism. The new policies could affect over a million foreign students in the U.S., who collectively contribute nearly $43.8 billion to the economy. Critics warn of potential legal challenges from universities and civil rights groups. AxiosPoliticoWall Street JournalBloombergWashington Post

US Poised to Get Golden Share in US Steel-Nippon Steel Deal. The U.S. government is set to obtain a so-called “golden share” in U.S. Steel Corp. as part of the negotiations to approve Nippon Steel’s $14.1 billion takeover. This golden share would grant the government veto power over key company decisions and appointments, aiming to protect national security. Although Japan’s Nippon Steel has pushed for full control of U.S. Steel, the deal under discussion would ensure U.S. oversight, including an American CEO and majority-U.S. board. Senator Dave McCormick confirmed that a $2.4 billion investment is planned for a Pennsylvania plant, and President Trump is expected to promote the deal as a win for American workers. However, procedural hurdles remain, including the need to reverse President Biden’s earlier block on the merger. Analysts warn the arrangement could limit Nippon Steel’s ability to restructure, while some see it as a constraint to protect American steel jobs and capacity. Bloomberg

North Korea Infiltrates U.S. Remote Jobs—With the Help of Everyday Americans. A former waitress from Minnesota, Christina Chapman, unknowingly became a key U.S. accomplice in a North Korean scheme to infiltrate American remote workforces through “laptop farming.” Operating over 90 computers from her home, Chapman enabled North Korean IT specialists—using stolen American identities—to collect more than $17 million in salaries from over 300 U.S. companies. These workers remotely accessed U.S.-based devices to bypass security checks, sometimes engaging in data theft and espionage. Chapman, recruited via LinkedIn, claimed she believed she was helping overseas workers find jobs. The broader scam, part of North Korea’s evolving efforts to fund its isolated regime under sanctions, highlights vulnerabilities in remote hiring and identity verification systems. Chapman pleaded guilty to wire fraud, identity theft, and money laundering, and faces sentencing in July 2025. Wall Street Journal

US, Venezuela each warn citizens against travel to other country. The U.S. and Venezuela each issued travel warnings on Tuesday, advising their citizens against visiting the other country. The U.S. State Department, citing a high risk of wrongful detention and other dangers in Venezuela—including violent crime, torture, terrorism, and inadequate healthcare—assigned the nation its highest travel alert - Level 4: Do Not Travel. It noted that several Americans have been unjustly detained in Venezuela, although some were recently released. Conversely, Caracas issued a warning about travel to the U.S., claiming that Venezuelans there face systemic human rights abuses, including arbitrary detentions and deportations to “concentration camps” in dangerous locations. Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

For peace in Ukraine, Putin wants a pledge to halt NATO enlargement, sources say. According to three Russian sources cited by Reuters, President Vladimir Putin's current peace terms for ending the war in Ukraine include a demand for a written pledge from Western powers to halt NATO's eastward expansion, explicitly ruling out membership for Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and other ex-Soviet states. He also wants some Western sanctions lifted, a resolution of the issue of frozen Russian assets, and legal protections for Russian speakers in Ukraine. Additionally, Putin insists on Ukrainian neutrality and complete Russian control over the four regions Moscow claims in eastern Ukraine. While he agreed in principle to negotiate a ceasefire memorandum after a lengthy call with U.S. President Donald Trump, Putin has toughened his stance, viewing battlefield success as a means to gain better terms. If peace cannot be achieved on his terms, Putin reportedly intends to demonstrate through continued military pressure that any future peace will be more painful for Ukraine and the West. Reuters

Trump Warns Putin ‘Playing with Fire’ as Lawmakers Eye Sanctions. Amid a dramatic escalation of Russian airstrikes on Ukraine, President Donald Trump warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is “playing with fire,” and hinted at possible new U.S. sanctions. In a Truth Social post, Trump declared, “What Vladimir Putin doesn’t realize is that if it weren’t for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean REALLY BAD.” Despite earlier urging for ceasefire talks mediated by the Vatican, Trump signaled a harder line, saying Sunday, “He’s killing a lot of people. I don’t know what’s wrong with him. What the hell happened to him?” Trump said he would “absolutely” consider further sanctions, although he has resisted pressure from European allies and Senate Republicans to act swiftly. Senator Lindsey Graham echoed Trump’s tone, warning, “If Mr. Putin continues to play games, the Senate will act,” and labeled Putin “the thug in Moscow,” while coordinating sanctions legislation with the White House. BloombergReutersWall Street Journal

Senate Republicans are demanding fresh sanctions against Russia. Senate Republicans are capitalizing on President Trump’s recent toughening stance toward Russian President Vladimir Putin to advocate for new sanctions against Moscow. Trump’s rhetoric has shifted in recent days, labeling Putin “crazy” and warning that he’s “playing with fire” in Ukraine. The Kremlin brushed off the comments, with ex-President Dmitry Medvedev implying Trump should avoid igniting World War III. Senate Republicans, including Chuck Grassley and Lindsey Graham, are pushing for strong sanctions, with a bipartisan bill proposing a 500% tariff on imports from countries buying Russian oil and targeting Russia economically if Putin rejects peace talks. Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated readiness to move forward on sanctions but also expressed a desire to coordinate with the White House. Democrats, meanwhile, are frustrated with delays. Trump's increasingly harsh words toward Putin have emboldened hawks in both parties to demand swift action against the Kremlin. AxiosNew York Times

Putin’s delay in promised ‘memorandum of peace’ adds to Trump’s frustrations. President Donald Trump is growing increasingly frustrated with delays in receiving a promised Russian “memorandum of peace” following a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin over a week ago. The document was meant to outline Russia’s ceasefire conditions and serve as a basis for broader negotiations. Despite Russia’s public claims that the memo is being prepared, no draft has been shared with either the U.S. or Ukraine. People familiar with the matter cited by CNN say the delay is one reason Trump is considering imposing tougher sanctions on Russia. Special envoy Keith Kellogg and lawmakers from both parties are urging Trump to take action. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky accuses Russia of using diplomacy as a stalling tactic. French President Emmanuel Macron voiced hope that Trump’s public anger over the delay would soon translate into concrete measures. The U.S. remains in limbo, awaiting Russia’s next move as bipartisan calls for tougher action grow louder.CNNPolitico EU

Ukraine Needs $30 Billion to Boost Arms Output, Zelensky Says. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters in Kyiv that Ukraine needs approximately $30 billion by year’s end to boost domestic weapons production and counter Russia’s escalating military offensives. With U.S. support under President Trump uncertain and international aid dwindling, Zelensky emphasized the urgency of ramping up drone operations and production capacity, stating, “This is not an issue of production capacity. It is an issue of funding.” He urged the Group of Seven (G-7) nations to step up efforts, including leveraging profits from $300 billion in frozen Russian assets. Zelensky plans to attend the G-7 summit in Alberta, Canada, next month and suggested those assets could finance Ukraine’s war effort. He warned that Russia has amassed 50,000 troops near Sumy and seeks to seize additional territory in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Dnipropetrovsk. He also called for more U.S. sanctions to pressure Russia into serious peace talks. Bloomberg Reuters

Ukraine expects a Russian summer offensive to target eastern Donetsk region. Russia is preparing a major summer offensive focused on Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, with analysts warning that a broader strategy includes diversionary attacks near Sumy and Kharkiv to stretch Ukrainian defenses. Ukrainian officials say Russia controls about 70% of Donetsk and is concentrating forces around Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, while trying to pressure regional capitals without sufficient troops for a full-scale push. The offensive comes as peace talks stall and U.S. military aid remains uncertain, while Europe signals greater support, including the removal of limits on long-range weapons. Ukraine continues a defensive posture due to manpower shortages, aiming to inflict high costs on Russian advances. Meanwhile, Russia has taken villages near the border and claims to be creating buffer zones to protect its own territory. Foreign Minister Lavrov blamed European interference for President Trump’s recent condemnation of Russian airstrikes, calling Putin “crazy” in comments seen as expressing frustration with stalled peace efforts. Washington Post

Satellite Images Suggest a Russian Plan to Restart Seized Ukrainian Nuclear Plant. Satellite imagery analyzed by Greenpeace and verified by The New York Times indicates Russia is constructing over 50 miles of new power lines in occupied southeastern Ukraine, likely aiming to connect the seized Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to its electric grid. This marks the clearest evidence yet that Moscow intends to restart and exploit the facility, despite the grave risks involved. The Zaporizhzhia plant, Europe’s largest, has been offline since Russia captured it soon after its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022. Experts warn that restarting it is dangerous due to damage, missing equipment, a depleted workforce, and the loss of a vital cooling water source after the destruction of a nearby dam. The Kremlin has rejected a U.S. peace proposal to return the plant to Ukraine under U.S. management. Instead, Russia appears determined to use the plant for its own energy needs, marking an unprecedented wartime seizure and repurposing of a nuclear facility. New York Times

Air defenses down 112 Ukrainian drones over Russia, 12 headed to Moscow, officials say.Russian air defenses intercepted 112 Ukrainian drones overnight, including a swarm aimed at Moscow, the Russian Defense Ministry said Wednesday. While 59 drones were downed over the Bryansk region, others were intercepted across five additional regions. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported that 12 drones targeting the capital were shot down and said recovery crews were examining debris. This drone attack follows a week of intensified missile exchanges between Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelensky said over 900 missiles were launched at Ukraine over a recent three-day period, though attacks have since tapered off. Reuters

Zelensky heads to Berlin as Merz emerges as a key backer of Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is scheduled to visit Berlin on Wednesday for the first time since German Chancellor Friedrich Merz took office. It will be their third meeting since Merz took office on May 6. The visit marks a pivotal moment in German Ukrainian relations, especially as doubts grow over continued U.S. support for Ukraine. Merz has positioned himself as a stronger European backer than his predecessor, Olaf Scholz, though he faces domestic resistance, particularly over providing Ukraine with the long-range Taurus cruise missile. Zelensky has long sought the Taurus, which could strike key Russian targets, including bridges to Crimea. While Merz previously criticized former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s refusal to supply the missile and hinted at policy shifts, he has been vague since taking office. Internal opposition remains strong, especially from Social Democrats in Merz’s coalition, who fear escalation and continue to block the missile’s delivery despite growing pressure. New York Times

Russia Backs Turkey for New Ukraine Talks After Nixing Vatican. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced on Tuesday that Moscow supports Turkey hosting a new round of Ukraine peace talks, following a meeting in Moscow with his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan. Lavrov expressed gratitude for Turkey’s continued role in facilitating negotiations, stating, “We are grateful for Turkey for its readiness to continue assisting with such negotiations and a peace settlement.” This follows the initial round of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine, held in Istanbul on May 16—the first such meeting since 2022, which yielded no breakthrough. During those talks, Russia rejected a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire and reaffirmed its hardline territorial demands. Moscow has also dismissed a Vatican-hosted peace initiative, backed by the U.S. and European nations. Russia’s Foreign Ministry confirmed it is drafting a memorandum for a potential peace agreement. Bloomberg

How Ukraine fell victim to fake arms deals. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 kicked off a massive arms procurement race for Kyiv. Officials searched almost everywhere for weapons that could be shipped to the frontlines. However, Ukraine has lost hundreds of millions of dollars on fraudulent arms deals in the process. The FT’s Ukraine correspondent Isobel Koshiw and investigative reporter Miles Johnson share their reporting in a podcast. Financial Times

Czech president reassures Ukraine on ammo deliveries.Czech President Petr Pavel is working to ensure continued ammunition deliveries to Ukraine, despite potential political changes after the October election. He met with all Czech political parties, including the populist ANO party, to reinforce national security priorities and sustain the Czech-led initiative to supply Kyiv with 1.8 million artillery shells. While ANO voiced concerns over transparency, Pavel emphasized their support for the initiative in principle. A former NATO military official, Pavel also urged Europe to build its own defense capabilities, suggesting that it spend over 3% of its GDP and potentially up to 5%, aligning with U.S. demands. He advocates for a strong European pillar within NATO, capable of operating with or without U.S. support. Though he sees Ukraine’s NATO membership as unrealistic in the short term due to the Trump administration's opposition, Pavel stresses the importance of maintaining that goal and increasing economic pressure on Russia. Politico EU

As Ukrainian POWs die in Russian prisons, autopsies point to a system of brutality. The death of Ukrainian POW Serhii Hryhoriev in Russian custody highlights a broader, harrowing pattern of abuse, neglect, and possible war crimes. Captured during the 2022 fall of Mariupol, Hryhoriev died in a Russian prison in 2023. Though Russia claimed he suffered a stroke, a Ukrainian autopsy revealed blunt-force trauma as the real cause. His case is among over 200 POW deaths since the full-scale invasion, with reports of beatings, medical neglect, torture, and poor prison conditions. A 2024 United Nations report found that 95% of repatriated Ukrainian POWs experienced systematic abuse. Forensic pathologists in Kyiv frequently receive bodies of ex-POWs showing signs of violence, untreated illness, and decomposition—possibly deliberate attempts to obscure the truth. Amnesty International and Ukrainian officials accuse Russia of concealing causes of death and denying access to detainees. Meanwhile, families of fallen soldiers are left to uncover grim truths and seek justice, clinging to memories and final words like Hryhoriev’s: “Everything will be all right.” Associated Press

Russia says Ukraine, backed by Europe, is trying to wreck peace talks. Russia’s Defense Ministry on Tuesday accused Ukraine, with support from unnamed European countries, of attempting to derail peace negotiations through “provocative steps,” including intensified drone and missile attacks on Russian territory since May 20. The ministry claimed Russian air defenses had intercepted 2,331 Ukrainian drones, many outside active combat zones. The accusations follow May 16 peace talks—the first direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in over three years—which failed to produce a ceasefire. Reuters

Russia chides Merz over remarks on long-range attacks.Russia criticized German Chancellor Friedrich Merz for suggesting that European nations had long secretly allowed Ukraine to conduct long-range strikes into Russia using Western-supplied weapons. Merz said there were no longer range limits on weapons from Germany, France, Britain, and the U.S., although his remarks were ambiguous. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday called Merz's tone “pretentious” and accused Europe of hiding its true intentions. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned such actions would be an “escalation.” Reuters

Merz under fire over ‘contradictory’ remarks on long-range weapons for Ukraine. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is facing backlash over contradictory remarks regarding the potential delivery of long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine, just as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits Berlin. While Merz initially suggested on Monday that Germany had lifted range limits on weapons for Ukraine—aligning with the U.S., U.K., and France—he later backtracked, clarifying that he was referencing Ukraine’s existing right to use supplied weapons against targets inside Russia. This apparent reversal sparked criticism from senior conservative lawmaker Roderich Kiesewetter, who accused Merz of weakening Europe’s position and showing indecision amid Russia’s intensifying attacks. The confusion has been compounded by Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil’s insistence that there has been no policy shift. Though Merz has promised continued military support, it remains unclear whether Germany will commit to supplying Taurus missiles, which Zelensky has long requested. The controversy threatens to overshadow Zelensky’s visit and highlights divisions within Germany’s ruling coalition. Politico EU

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 1, injure 46 over the past day.Ukrainian officials reported Wednesday that Russian attacks across multiple regions in the past day killed one civilian and injured 46 others, including children. Strikes involved ballistic missiles, 88 Shahed-type drones, and decoys, with Ukrainian air defenses intercepting many. The deadliest incidents occurred in Kharkiv Oblast, where an 85-year-old man was killed and nine others injured. Civilian casualties were also reported in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, with widespread damage to homes, schools, and infrastructure. Kyiv Independent

ISW Russian Campaign Offensive Assessment for Tuesday, May 27. Russia is preparing to permanently control the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), signaling plans to connect it to the Russian grid as part of a broader strategy to annex more Ukrainian territory. Moscow is exploiting the lack of deadlines in the peace process to delay talks, hoping to gain battlefield advantages and extract greater concessions. President Vladimir Putin is using scripted public events to promote militarized nationalism, reinforce anti-Western sentiment, and prepare Russian society for prolonged conflict and potential future confrontation with NATO. The European Union has launched the first phase of its ReArm Europe/Readiness 2030 plan, establishing a €150 billion SAFE fund to boost collective defense capabilities, including aid to Ukraine. Sweden has announced a $499 million military aid package for Ukraine, supporting a range of initiatives, including air defense, drones, ground combat systems, and joint procurement efforts.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced near Chasiv Yar. Russian forces advanced near Vovchansk, Kupyansk, and Pokrovsk. Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE

Putin Has Retooled Russia’s Economy to Focus Only on War. Russian President Vladimir Putin has transformed Russia’s economy into a wartime engine, heavily reliant on defense spending, arms production, and mass military recruitment. Since failing to seize Kyiv, Moscow ramped up weapons manufacturing and offered lucrative enlistment bonuses, helping it regain territory and avoid collapse. This militarized economy now fuels wage growth in poorer regions and has made peace talks less urgent for Putin. Experts warn that ending the war would be difficult to unwind economically shuttering arms factories could trigger job losses and social unrest, especially among demobilized soldiers. Some neighbors fear the war machine may turn toward them next. Analysts compare Russia’s current economic structure to World War II-era powers, but unlike the U.S., its military innovations are unlikely to spill over into civilian advancement. With oil prices falling and inflation rising, the sustainability of this war-driven economic model remains uncertain, making any transition to peace a politically and economically fragile endeavor. Salary growth for new hires is weakening, and GDP forecasts are falling. The cooling economy hasn’t yet shifted broader sentiment in support of the war. Wall Street JournalFinancial Times

Russia-backed group hacked into networks of police and NATO, say Dutch authorities. A previously unknown Russian state-backed hacking group, dubbed "Laundry Bear," was behind cyberattacks on the Dutch police, NATO, and various European entities in 2024, Dutch intelligence agencies said on Tuesday. Revealed in a letter to parliament, the group accessed confidential police data and conducted espionage on high-tech firms supplying sensitive technologies restricted by Western sanctions. The hackers also targeted information on Western military procurement and arms deliveries to Ukraine. Authorities say the group poses a broader international threat and has been active since at least 2024, operating covertly until a major operation was uncovered in September of that year. Reuters

‘Crazy’ data rules hit German plans to boost army reserve. Strict data protection laws are severely hindering Germany’s efforts to rebuild its military reserves, according to Patrick Sensburg, head of the country’s Reservist Association. Nearly a million former conscripts and professional soldiers are unreachable due to privacy regulations, including those shaped by historical sensitivities. “It’s crazy,” Sensburg told the Financial Times. Since conscription ended in 2011, Germany has lost contact with many potential reservists, including 93,000 Afghanistan veterans. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has committed to strengthening NATO and expanding the Bundeswehr, aiming to reach 260,000 reservists by 2030—up from the current 60,000. However, limited volunteer programs and lack of access to former soldiers’ contact details hamper recruitment. Sensburg criticized the disparity between the government’s inability to track ex-soldiers and its ability to locate citizens for other bureaucratic purposes. While the defense ministry acknowledges the challenge, it says it is reviewing how to reconcile data protection with national defense needs under a new service model. Financial Times

Caught Between Russia and the U.S., Germany Aims to Be a Stronger Force in NATO. As Germany’s new chancellor, Friedrich Merz faces the challenge of balancing a stronger NATO leadership role with a more militaristic Russia and a U.S. president demanding allies bear more defense costs. Merz recently visited Lithuania to activate a German tank brigade, the first fully armored German unit based abroad since WWII, aimed at countering potential Russian aggression. He has prioritized military spending, aiming to make Germany’s army Europe’s strongest, supported by a nearly fivefold increase in defense funding. However, the German military struggles with equipment shortages, dilapidated facilities, and staffing issues. Despite efforts, including a proposed Swedish-style draft, the army remains overstretched. The move to Lithuania is part of a broader push for Berlin to step up on the global stage amid rising tensions. Critics stress the need for reform and preparation against potential Russian expansion into neighboring regions. New York Times

Italy to double missile interceptor production as Ukraine runs out.Italy plans to double its production of Aster missiles for its SAMP/T air defense systems, with production set to rise 40% this year and 100% in 2026, according to Defense Minister Guido Crosetto. However, the first deliveries will take at least a year, offering little immediate help to Ukraine, which reportedly ran out of missile stocks for its two SAMP/T batteries. Ukraine has been using two batteries donated by Italy and France, with the second arriving from Italy in December. The SAMP/T system can intercept cruise missiles, drones, and tactical ballistic missiles. In a TV interview on Monday, Crosetto highlighted Europe’s struggles to ramp up arms production compared to autocratic states. Defense News

French Navy tests unmanned beach assault, expands drone tactics.The French Navy is increasingly integrating drones and artificial intelligence into its operations, including a recent exercise, Dragoon Fury, where nearly the entire recapture of a beach on France’s southern coast was conducted using drones. These unmanned systems, both aerial and underwater, were used for surveillance, attacks, and countering enemy drones. Navy Chief of Staff Adm. Nicolas Vaujour stressed that while drones offer tactical advantages and are ideal for confined areas, they cannot yet match the power projection of aircraft carrier strike groups. For years, the Navy has been experimenting with autonomous underwater gliders, and they are showing promising results in surveillance, though there are limitations in detecting high-threat assets like nuclear submarines. AI is being used to analyze large data sets for maintenance and tactical planning, though human expertise remains critical. The Navy plans to expand AI integration across training and operations, creating maritime experts who can collaborate effectively with data scientists. Defense News

US Republicans slam EU ‘double standard’ over Polish election financing. U.S. Republican lawmakers are criticizing the European Commission for allegedly favoring centrist candidate Rafał Trzaskowski in Poland’s presidential election while ignoring potential rule-of-law violations under Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government. In a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Brian Mast and others expressed “profound alarm” over reports of biased election practices, including a social media ad campaign linked to Trzaskowski and accusations that the Tusk government withheld public campaign funding from rival candidate Karol Nawrocki. The Commission defended its stance, saying it does not comment on national elections but supports fair processes. Critics argue the EU is selectively enforcing rules, undermining its credibility. Meanwhile, U.S. Republicans, including figures tied to Donald Trump, have rallied behind Nawrocki, with some calling the situation a “double standard” in election fairness. Politico EU

Europe is in crisis, Polish nationalist presidential candidate tells conservative conference. Karol Nawrocki, Poland’s nationalist presidential candidate, called on Europe to “wake up” during his speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Rzeszow. As he campaigned for the upcoming election against liberal candidate Rafał Trzaskowski, Nawrocki underscored Poland’s need for stronger ties with the U.S., inspired by President Trump’s leadership, rather than Brussels. He argued that Europe is in crisis, economically and in terms of security, and claimed Poland should lead the EU’s transatlantic relations. Nawrocki also opposed expanding Poland’s hate speech laws, warning that it would limit free speech. Reuters

Turkey’s Erdogan appoints legal team to draft new constitution, sparking fears of extended rule. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced the formation of a legal team to draft a new constitution, a move that critics argue is aimed at allowing him to extend his rule beyond 2028 when his current term ends. Erdogan has led Turkey as president since 2014 and served as prime minister for more than a decade before that. He has long advocated for a new constitution, claiming the current one, dating back to a 1980 military coup, is outdated. While Erdogan insists the new constitution is for Turkey’s benefit, critics see it as a path to bypass term limits. His ruling party lacks the votes to push through such a change, leading analysts to suspect that recent efforts to reconcile with the pro-Kurdish party may be a strategy to gain its support. This comes amid rising concerns about Erdogan’s authoritarianism, highlighted by the arrest of Istanbul’s popular mayor and opposition figure, Ekrem Imamoglu, on corruption charges widely seen as politically motivated. Associated Press

THE MIDDLE EAST

Trump cautioned Netanyahu to avoid steps that undermine Iran nuclear talks. President Donald Trump cautioned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a phone call last week not to take actions that could undermine ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, according to Axios. Trump expressed concern that Israeli military preparations—specifically, potential strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities—could derail diplomatic efforts. A White House official said Trump conveyed that he prefers diplomacy and doesn’t want Israel to escalate tensions while talks are underway, though he emphasized that military options remain if diplomacy fails. The conversation came shortly after the killing of two Israeli embassy staffers in Washington. On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem met with Netanyahu in Jerusalem and reiterated the message, asking Israel to allow a short window for negotiations to proceed. Axios

As Trump Seeks Iran Deal, Israel Again Raises Possible Strikes on Nuclear Sites.As the Trump administration seeks a new nuclear agreement with Iran, tensions are escalating with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who continues to advocate for a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Despite recent negotiations led by President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, Israel has warned it may act independently, believing its window for a successful strike is closing. Trump, preferring diplomacy, has urged Netanyahu to hold off, stressing Iran’s current weakness as leverage for negotiations. Israeli officials remain skeptical, fearing Trump may settle for a deal that allows Iran to maintain some enrichment capabilities. Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence has detected Israeli preparations for a potential strike and warned it could be launched with minimal notice. New York Times

Chaos, Looting Mar Start of New Aid Distribution System in Gaza. A new U.S.- and Israeli-backed aid distribution system in Gaza descended into chaos on Tuesday as thousands of desperate Palestinians breached a distribution center in Rafah. The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), aided by U.S. private security firms, had begun handing out food under a plan designed to bypass Hamas, which Israel accuses of hijacking aid—a claim Hamas denies. Crowds overwhelmed the site after a gate collapse, leading to looting and gunfire. GHF says 8,000 food boxes were delivered, and the retreat was protocol to avoid casualties. Hamas accused Israel of killing several civilians, which GHF denied. The United Nations and major aid groups have boycotted the plan, citing concerns over neutrality, biometric screening, and Israeli control. The initiative is part of a broader response to famine warnings following an Israeli blockade. Despite aid trickling in, only a fraction of the needed 500–600 trucks per day are entering Gaza. Over 54,000 Palestinians have reportedly been killed in the war. Wall Street Journal ReutersBBCThe Guardian

France lobbying Europeans, UK to recognize Palestinian statehood. France has been urging European nations, including the UK, Netherlands, and Belgium, to jointly recognize a Palestinian state at a UN conference next month. French President Emmanuel Macron hoped this move would revive peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians. However, the worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza, fueled by relentless Israeli bombings and blockades, has tempered expectations for the conference. Macron’s plan also faces resistance from Arab nations who are demanding sanctions, not statehood, and Israel’s strong opposition. The Jewish state sees the move as legitimizing Hamas, and one analyst explained that the proposal would “constitute a condemnation of Israel.” The UK has signaled a willingness to work with allies to support Palestinian statehood, while France’s position is considered as a shift toward recognizing Palestinian sovereignty. Yet, with the U.S. showing no readiness to endorse Palestinian statehood, the outcome of the conference remains uncertain. Politico EU

Germany Weighs Curbs on Israel Arms Exports on Gaza Concerns. Germany is mulling the idea of restricting military exports to Israel due to growing concerns over civilian suffering in Gaza. During a visit to Finland on Tuesday, Chancellor Friedrich Merz voiced his dismay at Israel’s strikes, questioning their purpose and effectiveness. This marks a significant shift in Germany's traditionally strong support for Israel, rooted in historical responsibility for the Holocaust. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also criticized Israel's “abhorrent” military actions targeting civilian infrastructure. Domestically, public and political pressure in Germany is mounting, with many calling for a reassessment of arms exports. While Merz emphasized continued support for Israel, he hinted that changes to military aid are under discussion, though no specific decisions or timelines were given. This change is also notable considering Berlin’s pattern of identifying criticism of Israel as antisemitism. BloombergHaaretzReuters

Israeli Forces Said They Killed a ‘Terrorist.’ He Was 14 Years Old. On April 6, Israeli forces fatally shot 14-year-old Palestinian American Amer Rabee near Turmus Aya in the West Bank, claiming he and two friends were throwing rocks at a highway. His family and surviving friend say they were picking almonds, not engaging in violence. Amer, born in New Jersey, was shot at least 11 times, sparking outrage over the Israeli military's use of force and lack of accountability. His death comes amid increased Israeli military raids and settler violence. U.S. Senators have called for an investigation, but the Trump administration remains noncommittal. Amer’s killing highlights broader concerns about military conduct and the treatment of Palestinian Americans in the occupied territories. New York Times

Israel says it has hit Houthi targets including last plane at Sanaa airport.Israel has struck Houthi targets in Yemen, including the last civilian plane operated by Yemenia Airways at Sanaa International Airport. This comes after the Houthis launched missiles at Israel, most of which were intercepted or fell short. The strike also follows prior Israeli attacks on the airport, which had recently reopened. The Houthis, part of Iran’s "Axis of Resistance" alongside Hamas and Hezbollah, have targeted Israel and Red Sea shipping in solidarity with Palestinians amid the ongoing Gaza conflict. Israel’s defense ministry warned of severe consequences for attacks on Israel, while Prime Minister Netanyahu blamed Iran as the force behind Houthi aggression. Reuters

Syria and Israel are in direct talks focused on security, sources say. Israel and Syria have recently held direct, face-to-face meetings aimed at easing tensions and avoiding conflict along their shared border, according to five sources familiar with the talks. These meetings follow backchannel communications after Islamist rebels overthrew Bashar al-Assad in December. Led on the Syrian side by senior security official Ahmad al-Dalati, the talks represent a major shift in relations between the longtime enemies. While currently focused on joint security and preventing Israeli incursions, the dialogue may lay the groundwork for broader political agreements. The U.S., particularly under President Trump, has encouraged these contacts as part of a wider regional realignment. Syria’s new Islamist leadership has taken steps to reassure Israel, including detaining anti-Israel militants and offering symbolic gestures like returning belongings of Israeli spy Eli Cohen. Though normalization is not imminent, the atmosphere suggests an unprecedented thaw in relations between the two adversaries. Reuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

China introduces rules to protect military-industrial assets from spies and sabotage. China has introduced new regulations to protect its military-industrial facilities from espionage, sabotage, cybercrime, and terrorism. The Regulation on the Protection of Important Military Industrial Facilities, issued by the State Council and the Central Military Commission, will take effect on September 15. It designates research, production, testing, and storage sites of key defense assets as “protected areas,” mandating stringent security, surveillance, and public cooperation. Unauthorized access, photography, and interference—including in surrounding airspace or electromagnetic environments—are now punishable offenses. The law also encourages citizens to report sabotage, offering state rewards for doing so. Recent incidents, including a thwarted attempt by a foreign spy, underscore Beijing’s concerns over foreign intelligence threats. The regulation also extends to associated infrastructure, such as ports, railways, and data centers, reinforcing China’s efforts to secure its defense capabilities amid rising global tensions and rivalry with the West. South China Morning Post

Israeli defense firms lament a chill from erstwhile client Philippines. Israeli defense companies are concerned about cooling relations with the Philippines, as Manila appears to be distancing itself from its long-standing supplier. While the exact cause of the strain is unclear, some executives suggest it stems from Israel’s failure to support the Philippines’ claims in the South China Sea. Additionally, Israel’s prioritization of domestic defense needs amid the Gaza conflict, at the expense of international customers, has contributed to tensions. Observers noted Filipino interest in Japanese defense products at a recent defense exhibition, hinting at a shift away from Israeli suppliers. The Philippines, Israel’s third-largest defense buyer, has previously procured systems like Rafael’s Spyder air defenses, Elbit’s Sabrah 2 light tanks, and Hermes drones. Israeli officials acknowledge the issue but deny it involves territorial disputes. Manila has yet to respond publicly. Defense News

India's alarm over Chinese spying rocks the surveillance industry.Indian regulators and global surveillance equipment makers have clashed over new security rules requiring CCTV camera makers to submit hardware, software, and source code for testing in government labs. The policy, aimed at addressing national security concerns linked to China’s tech capabilities, has faced pushback from companies like China’s Hikvision, Xiaomi, and Dahua, as well as U.S.-based Motorola Solutions and South Korea’s Hanwha. Manufacturers warn of potential supply disruptions, citing delays due to insufficient testing capacity and government demands for sensitive data. The rules affect all internet-connected CCTV cameras made or imported since April and include stringent requirements for security features and inspections. India, motivated by fears of espionage and lessons from past incidents, has already banned many Chinese apps and tightened foreign investment rules. The new policy has disrupted sales, with some retailers reporting significant revenue losses due to pending approvals. Reuters

Taiwan pledges to buy more American goods as a 32% tariff looms.Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te pledged on Tuesday to purchase more American goods, including natural gas, oil, weapons, and agricultural products, as the island seeks closer ties with the U.S. and aims to counter a proposed 32% tariff from the Trump administration. Speaking to a visiting U.S. congressional delegation, Lai said that boosting imports from the U.S. would balance bilateral trade and enhance Taiwan’s energy resilience. He also expressed interest in joining U.S. reindustrialization and leading in AI. Taiwan’s relationship with the U.S. has deepened amid pressure from China, which claims the island. Washington is Taiwan’s largest trade partner and investment destination, but it ran a $116.3 billion trade deficit with Taipei in 2024. Although Trump’s proposed 32% tariff is currently on hold, tensions remain, which Lai has described as “frictions between friends.” The delegation’s visit to Taiwan is part of a broader Indo-Pacific tour. Associated Press

Indonesian and French leaders meet for defense and trade talks.French President Emmanuel Macron and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto met in Jakarta on Wednesday to strengthen defense and trade ties as part of Macron’s Southeast Asia tour. The visit follows Macron’s stop in Vietnam, where he signed a deal for 20 Airbus planes. Macron and Subianto discussed ongoing military cooperation, including Indonesia’s purchases of French Dassault Rafale fighter jets, Scorpene submarines, and Thales radar systems. The two leaders are expected to sign a letter of intent for further military acquisitions. Indonesia aims to modernize its military amid rising regional tensions, with Subianto previously visiting multiple countries to expand defense capabilities. Macron’s visit will also include meetings with ASEAN leaders and speeches on regional issues before traveling to Singapore for the Shangri-La Dialogue. Associated PressReuters

AFRICA

US is weighing the future of military command in Africa, top general says. U.S. Marine General Michael Langley, head of AFRICOM, said the United States is reassessing the future of its Africa Command and urged African leaders to share their views with Washington. Speaking ahead of a defense conference in Kenya on Tuesday, Langley confirmed discussions with African defense ministers and presidents, emphasizing that they should communicate their support through their U.S. ambassadors. The Trump administration is reportedly considering merging AFRICOM with U.S. European Command to streamline operations. Created in 2008 to address growing security concerns, AFRICOM’s role has diminished amid rising Islamist threats and military coups in West Africa, where U.S. influence has declined and Russia's has expanded. Reuters

West African Coast Could Boost Revenue for Jihadists, US Warns. General Michael Langley, head of the U.S. Africa Command, cautioned on Tuesday that Islamist militants in West Africa could gain new revenue sources if they manage to reach the region’s coastline. Langley, speaking at a briefing in Nairobi, explained that coastal access would enable extremist groups to shift from kidnapping and taxation to smuggling and human trafficking. Despite years of conflict in the Sahel, including Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, military juntas in these countries have struggled to stop attacks by al-Qaeda and Islamic State-linked groups. Langley noted a recent increase in violence, particularly in Burkina Faso and the Lake Chad area near Niger and Nigeria. The U.S. has reduced its foreign aid and military presence in the region, but Langley stressed the importance of continued support through intelligence sharing and capacity building to help these nations conduct independent operations against militants. Bloomberg

Congo’s Former President Returns Home, Accused of Treason. Former Congolese President Joseph Kabila has returned to the Democratic Republic of Congo after years in exile, just days after being accused of treason by the Senate for allegedly supporting the Rwanda-backed M23 militia. Kabila entered Goma, a city now controlled by M23 and outside government control, avoiding arrest. His return complicates U.S.-led peace efforts between Rwanda and Congo, as well as ongoing mineral negotiations. Kabila claimed he came to help resolve the crisis peacefully and accused President Félix Tshisekedi of dictatorship. Once political allies, their power-sharing collapsed in 2019. M23’s political leader, Corneille Nangaa, warmly welcomed Kabila, further signaling Kabila’s potential reentry into national politics. New York TimesReuters

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

AI-enabled drones in Ukraine are propelling autonomous battlefield capabilities. Against the backdrop of a recent Ukrainian military claim that it downed a Russian fighter jet with missiles fired from an unmanned drone, the advance of AI-enabled battlefield technologies is coming into sharper focus. Of the nearly 2 million drones Ukraine obtained in 2024, 10,000 were AI-enabled. AI-enabled models range from off-the-shelf drones produced by underground workshops to highly sophisticated platforms from manufacturers such as Anduril, Shield AI, and Germany's Helsing. AI capabilities are especially important in Ukraine, given the electronic warfare countermeasures that can disrupt unprotected signal communications. Helsing executive Ned Baker explains the AI “can replace the functionality that is made impossible when...the link between operator and drone has become disrupted." Drones equipped with computer vision can navigate and identify targets autonomously. However, analysts note that there are no fully autonomous drones in use in Ukraine as human operators always remain “in the loop” to approve actions. Baker says, “AI on the battlefield will be easily as important as the advent of gunpowder, advent of machine guns, advent of tanks — but in completely unknown ways as of yet.” Financial Times

Department of Defense exploring ‘non-kinetic’ counter-drone defenses for critical infrastructure. The Pentagon is investing in non-kinetic counter drone technologies to counteract a variety of threats from nuisance hobbyists to adversarial drone activity. Austin Phoenix, the director of Virginia Tech’s National Security Institute’s Mission Systems Division, explained that “kinetic is the old way. It's the right approach for many applications and systems when you need to ensure immediate death. It’s part of a layered defense system, but non-kinetic offers a ton of benefits.” Non-kinetic options include jamming a drone’s guidance signal, spoofing command and control by swapping signals, and cyber takeover. Phoenix told DefenseOne that “non-kinetic and low-collateral defeat are critical areas" for development and investment to defend "critical infrastructure from both nefarious and hobbyist drone enthusiasts as we move into the future.” DefenseOne

Huawei promotes ‘Supernode 384’ AI architecture as a competitor to Nvidia. Huawei Technologies is promoting the use of Supernode 384, its Ascend AI processor-based, high-performance computing architecture, as a competitor to Nvidia's NVL72 system in alleviating bottlenecks for data centers. Zhang Dixuan, president of Huawei's Ascend computing business, said that the task of meeting future training requirements will require computing architectures like Supernode 384. Huawei's CloudMatrix 384 system is a cluster of 384 Ascend AI processors spread across 12 computing cabinets and four bus cabinets that delivers 300 petaflops of computing power. Huawei claims that its Supernode 384 architecture can scale far beyond existing boundaries of AI system performance by linking tens of thousands of processors to support next-generation AI models. The Supernode system, according to Huawei, is best suited for so-called Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) AI models. South China Morning Post

Humanoid robots are projected for multiple industrial, logistics operations by 2030. Notable advances in humanoid robotics are under way, with companies like Agility, Boston Dynamics, Figure, and Elon Musk's Tesla developing and testing two-legged robots for industrial settings. Amazon, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz are already experimenting with humanoids in their factories and warehouses. One of the applications under study is the use of humanoids to connect "islands of automation" consisting of more conventional robotics. Analysts project that over 1 million humanoids will be in use by 2030, rising from virtually nothing at present. The prospects for humanoids could result in lower production costs and increased efficiencies for manufacturers and logistics operators as they automate previously manual processes. Some concerns have emerged about humanoid safety and function, with current industrial and warehouse operations mostly cordoned off from human workers. Machine learning advances should allow some of these restrictions to be lifted. Another concern is worker displacement, with McKinsey estimating that 400-800 million individuals could be displaced worldwide by 2030. Financial Times

Salesforce reportedly reaches agreement to purchase Informatica for $8 billion. Salesforce, the cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM) (CRM) platform,has agreed to buy Informatica Inc. for about $8 billion. Salesforce indicated that the deal is expected to close early in fiscal year 2027 through a funding combination of cash and new debt. Informatica, which manages customer cloud data, and Salesforce first held talks over a year ago but negotiations faltered as the parties struggled to come to terms. Robin Washington, Salesforce's president and chief operating and financial officer, said that the acquisition will propel the company's next phase of AI-driven growth. The deal is one of Salesforce's largest acquisitions and could be a strategic boost in the intensifying competition for AI-enabled databases. Wall Street analysts favor the deal because Informatica’s data-management software tools are seen as improving the quality of the Salesforce AI tool known as Agentforce. BloombergWall Street JournalReuters

Nvidia earnings report expected to reveal impact of U.S. chip export curbs to China. Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday is expected to provide answers to the impact on the company of U.S. chip restrictions in exports to China. Potentially, Nvidia could face substantial losses in the Chinese market. CEO Jensen Huang projected the Chinese market for AI chips to be about $50 billion in 2026. Nvidia reportedly has lost $15 billion of sales in the country following the U.S. export restrictions. The question hanging over earnings results is whether Nvidia can increase sales to a level that would offset the curbs on H20 chips to China. According to market analysts, Nvidia is expected to report that first-quarter revenue surged 66.2 percent to $43.28 billion. Other analysts estimate the export curbs on China sales impacted the last three weeks of the April quarter, costing Nvidia about $1 billion in sales. Lost revenue could amount to as much as $4.5 billion per quarter for the rest of this year. Reuters

Singapore seeks to develop AI models with cultural, linguistic nuances absent in Western products. Singapore aims to play a key role in the development of large language models for Southeast Asia, which could challenge the ambitions of Western and Chinese AI model developers. The Singapore government has supported an AI model ecosystem initiative called Sea-Lion (Southeast Asian Languages in One Network) to ensure some regional influence on the development, not just the consumption, of AI technologies. Singapore researchers work in close proximity to some of the world’s leading AI companies, as firms like Meta Platforms and China’s ByteDance headquarters their Asian operations in the island city-state. The AI developers building Sea-Lion are striving to ensure it doesn't mimic models like Claude or ChatGPT, which are trained primarily in English, even as they aim to equal the efficiency of China's DeepSeek products. The team's goal in delivering a unique model is to make it sensitive to cultural and societal nuances of the region. Bloomberg

SpaceX launches another Starship rocket after back-to-back explosions, but it tumbles out of control. SpaceX on Tuesday launched its 403-foot Starship rocket from Texas in its ninth test, but the spacecraft lost control and broke apart over the Indian Ocean. SpaceX had hoped to deploy mock satellites, but a door malfunction prevented it. The spacecraft tumbled due to fuel leaks, and contact was lost before reentry, ending the test prematurely. Despite setbacks, CEO Elon Musk noted improvements compared to previous tests and promised more frequent launches. The test used a recycled booster, which also failed, crashing into the Gulf of Mexico. SpaceX has made hardware upgrades and plans to test heat shields and catch fittings for future missions. NASA depends on Starship to support upcoming moon missions, including a 2027 lunar landing. Associated PressWall Street JournalWashington Post

REPORT INFO

Brad Christian, Executive Editor

Ethan Masucol, Assistant Editor

Brian Bonner, Senior Contributor

Elaine Shannon, Senior Contributor

Ken Hughes, Tech & Cyber Contributor

Katharine Campbell, Writer

Read deeply experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion in The Cipher Brief