Often hailed as an island of stability amidst a region of chaos, Jordan’s security remains an issue of paramount importance for the United States. Jordan’s close cooperation with Washington has proven vital to U.S. endeavors in the Middle East, with Amman playing a critical role in the U.S.-led coalition to combat the Islamic State (ISIS).
“Jordan is Washington’s best Arab ally and is a key partner in the campaign against ISIS in Syria, providing the U.S. and other western states with airbases and other critical operational support,” writes David Schenker, Cipher Brief expert and Director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Neat East Policy.
Jordan’s involvement in the anti-ISIS campaign intensified following ISIS’ gruesome burning to death of Jordanian air force pilot Muaz al-Kasasbeh in February 2015. Domestically, the Jordanian government has managed to keep ISIS at bay to this point, but a recent spate of terrorist attacks in northern Jordan has recast the threat of extremism into the spotlight of Jordanian policies.
On Tuesday, a suicide attacker drove a truck laden with explosives through the Syrian-Jordanian border, setting off a blast that killed six members of the Jordanian security forces. This attack comes two weeks after a gunman killed five Jordanian intelligence officers in the city of Baqaa, just north of Amman, in what the Jordanian government deemed a lone-wolf act carried out by an assailant with ties to various Islamic extremist groups.
These attacks drew a passionate statement from Jordan’s King Abdullah II, who pledged to respond with an “iron fist.” Jordan also closed its last entry point for Syrian refugees along the Syrian-Jordanian border following Tuesday’s bombing.
Staring down the threat of nearby terrorist groups is nothing new for Jordan. The Jordanian government has extensive experience in combatting ISIS’ predecessor, al Qaeda in Iraq, after facing a wave of terrorist attacks in 2005.
“Jordan has a rich experience on how to handle ISIS as it had dealt with an earlier version of the Jihadi Salafi extremists,” explained former Jordanian ambassador to Bahrain, Musa Keilani to The Cipher Brief in February. “Amman has spearheaded the fight against ISIS since the group’s early formative years in Iraq years ago,” he continued.
The threat of ISIS infiltration into Jordan amongst Syrian refugees poses a key security dilemma for Jordan. In a recent interview on CNN, Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister Nasser Judah stated, “What we have seen over the last few months is a collection of people that are coming [to Jordan] from the north and northeastern part of Syria – from Raqqa, from Hasakah, from Deir ez-Zur. Many have been infiltrated by Daesh (ISIS).”
Increased threats from ISIS have also been accompanied by a crackdown on media and free speech in Jordan, as the government has sought to prevent ISIS propaganda from permeating Jordanian society. Such restrictions have drawn negative responses from the Jordan population.
“The Jordanian people have gotten used to the freedoms that they have gained over the last ten years or so. For them, the small, targeted restrictions are not acceptable at this stage, but the limitations are very far from what you have in Egypt or what you have in some of the Gulf countries,” explained Sultan Barakat, Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center.
However, despite the external and internal threats posed by ISIS, Jordan has stood strong. “It is quite remarkable, despite the recent attacks, that things are reasonably good,” says Barakat. King Abdullah II continues to garner support and receive high approval ratings from the Jordanian people.
That said, stability in Jordan cannot be taken for granted. According to Barakat, “The current stability is good, but it can’t just be maintained on its own, especially given the pressures from around the country.” One of the greatest threats to Jordan’s security is the potential cultivation of ISIS cells in Jordan headed by disenfranchised youth who have fallen victim to a lack of employment opportunities and difficult economic circumstances in Jordan. Heightening numbers of refugees flooding into Jordan may only exacerbate this problem.
The U.S. is extremely invested in Jordan and ensuring stability of the Jordanian government is a necessity for enhancing security both in the Middle East and back at home.
Bennett Seftel is the Deputy Director of Editorial at The Cipher Brief.
