This weekend, Japan’s legislature passed a new National Security Law that allows the Japanese Self Defense Forces (SDF) to use military action in foreign conflicts for the first time since World War II. The lower house of the Japanese Diet passed the bill in mid-July.
The vote was a referendum on Japan’s past and future. The population has been divided for months between those who want to see Japan rise as an international power, and those who believe that post-war restrictions are responsible for a peaceful and prosperous modern Japan. Japan’s current constitution only allows for the SDF to act in self-defense, but the new law would permit Japan to respond to attacks on its allies as well. Japan will now expand its role in United Nations peacekeeping operations, increase contingency planning with the U.S., and explore new areas of defense cooperation with like-minded states.
The law further complicates Japan’s already complex relationship with China. This law fundamentally changes Japan’s relationship with its armed forces and its view of military action – which were shaped by its defeat in World War II. Its passage comes just after China celebrated the 70th anniversary of the end of the war and the Japanese occupation. The timing already has the Chinese media buzzing about the rise of a remilitarized Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe exploited domestic fear of Chinese aggression as the rationale for the passing of the law, but he says that it is meant to support peacekeeping and other operations of its allies. In a security environment where perceptions are as important as reality, such a fundamental change to Japan’s defense posture will only antagonize China. The changes to Japan’s military have prompted China’s Ministry of National Defense to respond by threatening enactment of a maritime security law that would lower the threshold of using force for the Chinese navy should Japan show any signs of aggression.
Japan is embracing its role as a major U.S. ally. The law will allow Japan to enhance its military capabilities, reducing its reliance on U.S. support in East Asia. Under current law, Japan is prohibited from engaging in combat unless there is a clear threat to Japan’s national security. Japan will now be able to act on behalf of an ally. Japan will also have the legal capacity to act as an equal partner in the U.S.-Japanese alliance, including any potential conflicts with China. As a result of new guidelines for U.S.-Japan defense cooperation established in April, Abe promised U.S. officials that Japan would play a more significant role in their bilateral security agreement.
Another significant concern is the economic impact the law will have on Japan—a country that is already suffering from a slowing economy and growing national deficit. The expansion of Japan’s SDF is predicted to increase Japanese defense spending by over $41 billion.
Abe is staking significant political capital on this law. According to Japanese public polling, anywhere from 56 to 80 percent of Japanese citizens disapprove of the law. Many legislators think it is unconstitutional. Following the passage of the law in the lower house, tens of thousands of Japanese protestors congregated in Tokyo. Despite low approval ratings and a number of other domestic political hurdles, Abe’s decision to push the law through parliament suggests he may have seen this as his last chance to do so. The Japanese leader is reacting to rising tensions with China and is using this legislation to reinforce his nation’s relationship with the U.S. as well as to position Japan as a player in East Asian security.
Alexandra Viers is an analyst at The Cipher Brief.
