Since 1982, Colombia’s government and the FARC guerrilla group have sat down to negotiate four times. This attempt appears to be the one that will finally end with a peace accord. The negotiators are on the fifth of five substantive negotiating agenda topics, and they appear likely to announce a bilateral cessation of hostilities, with UN verification, perhaps during President Barack Obama’s March 21-22 visit to Cuba.
The current talks have been successful largely because of the configuration on the battlefield: for both sides, a negotiation leading to disarmament makes strategic sense. The FARC are significantly weaker than they were when the last peace process collapsed in 2002 and no longer have a serious shot at taking power through arms. However, they remain so strong (about 7,000 active fighters) and wealthy that it would take many bloody years for the Colombian government to force them to surrender on the battlefield. For both sides, the cost of continuing the armed conflict is greater than the cost of negotiating an end with a graceful exit.
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