The conflict in Yemen has enabled ISIS to make its presence felt for the first time in Yemen and al-Qaeda to carve out a strategic territory on the coast of eastern Yemen. Shortly after the Houthi movement took over the government in Sana’a, ISIS carried out its first significant attack in Yemen when it bombed two mosques full of worshippers from the Houthi leadership, killing scores of people. The Houthi movement wants to rid Yemen of ISIS and al-Qaeda, and the Houthi leadership paints those who oppose the Houthis as supporters of ISIS and its affiliates. ISIS responded to the Houthi ascendance in Sana’a with the mosque attacks.
Al-Qaeda has much deeper roots in Yemen, and when the Houthi movement first carried out its coup in Sana’a against Hadi’s transitional government, al-Qaeda seized the opportunity to lead the fight against the Iranian backed and Zaydi-led Houthi movement. As the Houthi fighters moved south towards Aden, al-Qaeda fighters spread across a middle band of Yemen from Shabwa to Ibb to spearhead the resistance to Houthi advances.
Al-Qaeda’s efforts, however, went for naught as Houthi fighters quickly advanced to Aden, and al-Qaeda retreated to Mukula on the eastern coast. Al-Qaeda overran a military base near the city and took over the port. Having learned from its previous disaster in governing the Abyan governorate in 2011 and 2012, al-Qaeda is ruling Mukula from the background. It installed a local administration composed of former officials and leading residents of the city. But al-Qaeda’s presence in the city is unwelcome. In pursuit of its puritanical vision, al-Qaeda affiliates have destroyed local shrines of popular Sufi saints and have tried to impose restrictions on local merchants. Mukula’s residents are most worried that al-Qaeda will bring the war to Mukula, a city that has thus far not been touched directly by the fighting. To date, local Mukala residents have pushed back against al-Qaeda with demonstrations but have not resorted to violence against the well-armed al-Qaeda militants.
The Saudi military declined to attack al-Qaeda in eastern Yemen, claiming that al-Qaeda will be dealt with at a time when there is a legitimate government in Sana’a. In turn, al-Qaeda appears to have ceased attacks against Yemeni security and focused instead on joining the fight against the Houthis. In effect, al-Qaeda, the Saudis, and the U.S. are fighting on the same side in the conflict against the Houthi movement, though in contrast to the Saudis, the U.S. has continued its drone attacks against al-Qaeda, one of which killed the longtime leader in Yemen, Nasser al-Wuhayshi this past June.
In October, ISIS made a dramatic statement by attacking both the Houthis in Sana’a and the Saudi backed Hadi government in Aden. In Sana’a, ISIS again attacked a mosque popular with Houthi followers. The Aden attacks struck a hotel used by government officials and forced Hadi’s government to return to its refuge in Riyadh. The Hadi government only recently returned to Aden in early December after further security measures had been implemented. In contrast to al-Qaeda, ISIS rejects any temporary alliance with the Saudi backed Yemeni government fighting the Houthi movement, and the group intends to battle both the Houthi and the Saudi backed Yemeni government.
In November, ISIS militants attacked a Yemeni military based in the interior of eastern Yemen, effectively issuing a challenge to al-Qaeda in nearby Mukula. The two groups had traded accusations via social media prior to the attack, and there is no doubt that the attack was meant to provoke a crisis in al-Qaeda’s rank and file. Al-Qaeda responded to ISIS’ challenge by occupying several key cities in Abyan Governorate that borders the southern capital Aden, rebuking ISIS’ charge that al-Qaeda in Yemen is unwilling to fight the Saudi backed Yemeni government. In turn, ISIS responded by detonating a huge car bomb that killed the popular governor of Aden recently appointed by Hadi. Reports suggest that al-Qaeda members who are unhappy with the effective alliance with the Saudi backed Yemeni government are joining ISIS. The immediate benefactor of the chaos sewn by dueling extremisms of ISIS and al-Qaeda in the south is the former ruler of Yemen, Ali Abdalla Saleh, whose forces joined with the Houthi to control the north.
However, Yemen does not present ISIS with the opportunity to exploit social cleavages as Iraq and Syria did. In Syria and Iraq, those Sunnis disaffected with the Assad regime or Maliki’s government in Baghdad had few options for effective resistance, whereas in Yemen, there are many different organizations fighting the Houthis, including the southern resistance movement; the remnants of the Yemeni military loyal to Hadi; and units of Emirati, Saudi, and Sudanese ground troops. ISIS can recruit in Yemen, but it cannot assume the mantle of resistance it achieved in Iraq and Syria.
