How has the west responded? The international community’s past responses regarding murders conducted by pro-Moscow actors have lacked uniform, coherent punishment. Some have responded with economic sanctions, others with the expulsion of Russian diplomats from embassies and consulates, and in some cases, arrest warrants have been issued by international courts.
Here’s a look at the past two decades’ most prominent attempted and successful assassinations of Russians who, to various degrees, crossed the Kremlin and some of the responses prompted by those actions.
Background:
- Alexey Navalny was “beyond a doubt” poisoned with a Novichok chemical nerve agent, according to German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
- German Response: Chancellor Merkel condemned the poisoning of Navalny and called for Russian officials to provide an explanation.
- US Response: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the US was “deeply concerned” over the preliminary results of Navalny’s alleged poisoning. Pompeo said that the US would support the EU “if the reports prove accurate”
- NATO Response: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called for Russia to disclose its Novichok nerve agent program to international monitors, saying the Kremlin "must fully co-operate with the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons on an impartial international investigation".
- The EU Response: The EU is considering targeted economic sanctions; however, it will only issue sanctions if the international community can identify the individuals responsible for the poisoning of Navalny.
- Zelimkhan Khangoshvili, a former Chechen rebel, asylum seeker, and Georgian citizen was gunned down in Berlin’s Kleiner Tiergarten on August 23, 2019, allegedly by a Russian national.
- German Response: In December 2019, Chancellor Merkel expelled two Russian diplomats after accusing Russia of failing to cooperate in Khangoshvili’s murder investigation.
- Slovakian Response: In August 2020, Slovakia expelled three Russian diplomats for an unspecified “serious crime” in NATO and EU territory, possibly the Zelimkhan killing.
- Sergei Skripal, a former Russian military intelligence (GRU) officer who spied for the United Kingdom, narrowly survived a poisoning attempt with Novichok in Salisbury, England, on March 4, 2018, that also sickened his daughter Yulia. Skripal safely left Russia in a 2010 prisoner exchange, and Western intelligence agencies blamed GRU’s Unit 29155 for the attack.
- International Response: The US and over twenty nations collectively expelled 100 Russian diplomats from their embassies. Specifically, the US expelled 60 Russian diplomats and closed a Russian Consulate in Seattle.
- The first round of sanctions was delivered in August 2018, and the second round was delivered in August 2019. President Trump’s executive order imposed a second round of sanctions to ban US banks from making loans to Russia as well as opposing financial assistance made by international finance institutions. All sanctions were imposed under the 1991 America's Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act.
- Emilian Gebrev, a Bulgarian arms manufacturer, fell into a coma with Novichok-like symptoms when alleged members of GRU’s Unit 29155 arrived in Sofia, according to a Bellingcat open source investigation.
- Response: In January 2020, Bulgaria charged three Russians for Gebrev’s poisoning.
- Sergei Magnitsky, a Moscow lawyer investigating a corruption case for British financier William Browder, was tortured and killed in Russian custody in 2009.
- Response: His death led to the passage of the U.S. Magnitsky Act in 2012, which levies personal sanctions on human rights abusers in Russia. This legislation was expanded to other countries with 2016’s Global Magnitsky Act and was replicated by the UK and some EU countries.
- Alexander Litvinenko, a Federal Security Service (FSB) defector who had resettled in London, died from radiation poisoning after authorities said his tea was laced with polonium in November 2006. A British inquiry traced the attack to former KGB officers.
- Ibn al-Khattab, a Chechen jihadist leader, was killed by a poisoned letter delivered by messenger in March 2002. The FSB took credit for the “special operation” leading to the death of ‘Russia’s Bin Laden.’
The Cipher Brief tapped our experts, former director of the CIA's National Clandestine Service, Michael Sulick and former Senior Member of the British Foreign Office, Nick Fishwick for their take on why - if western leaders are correct - Russia does not seem to be deterred from carrying out targeted assassinations of those seen as enemies of the Kremlin?
Michael Sulick, Former Director, CIA's National Clandestine Service
The Kremlin and their cronies are more concerned about dissent and exposure of corruption than by foreign criticism. I think that's especially true now because Russia has gone through a pandemic which affected the economy and has put them on a road to long-term economic stagnation. Putin's poll numbers are falling. They are still enviable by Western standards, but they are falling. There are protests outside of their normal venue in Moscow or St. Petersburg, and instead way out in the Russian Far East. And Belarus represents Putin's worse fears, just like the Ukraine which is democracy in his neighbor. So, combined with all of those, I think that's ratcheted up their concern about civil strife there. Typically, when the Russian bear gets cornered, he strikes back with his claws. This particular method is effective, obviously. They claim plausible deniability on one hand, and at the same time they use a substance like Novichok because they think they can have their cake and eat it too. So, they deny that they did it, yet they send this terrifying signal to others about what their fate could be.
Nick Fishwick, Former Senior Member, British Foreign Office
One is led to wonder why Mr. Putin seems quite content to let everyone in the west view his government as a gangster regime. He must know that an endless series of mysterious deaths or attempted killings – Litvinenko, Nemtsov, Skripal, Sturgess, Khangoshvili, Navalny and countless others - is going to worry western democracies. But he thinks they won’t worry too much, because western leaders deep down understand cynical realpolitik. Navalny and Nemtsov? None of your business. Litvinenko, Skripal? Spy stuff. Sturgess? Too bad. Khangoshvili? An enemy of Russia. You’d do the same.
Looking Ahead: How would international responses need to escalate in order to provide a stronger deterrent against these types of actions?
Michael Sulick, Former Director, CIA's National Clandestine Service
The Kremlin won't try to manage foreign relations sensibly or stop this aggression unless there are serious consequences. The sanctions have hurt them, but Russia has survived with them and grown accustomed to them. The US may want to consider more serious sanctions against specific business sectors. I also think exposure of corruption, which was one of Navalny's main issues, may have angered the Kremlin even more than his protests against the regime. Putin was outraged by revelations in the Panama Papers a couple years ago. More of this kind of exposure might convince them that any actions like this will involve serious consequences.
Nick Fishwick, Former Senior Member, British Foreign Office
It is as an international pariah that the Russian regime now has to be treated. Western leaders may indeed understand cynical realpolitik but they are accountable to electorates, despite attempts by the Russians to fiddle with our democratic processes, and they won’t go on treating economic dealings with Russia as somehow separable from Russia’s gangsterish behaviour. One suspects Mrs. Merkel is edging towards this conclusion. Is Mr. Trump? I haven’t heard.
The Cipher Brief will bring you extended expert insights on this issue throughout the week.
Cipher Brief interns Alexander Naumov and Lindsay Tryba contributed to this report.
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